• Energy Research

AbstractThe Arctic icescape is rapidly transforming from a thicker multiyear ice cover to a thinner and largely seasonal first-year ice cover with significant consequences for Arctic primary production. One critical challenge is to understand how productivity will change within the next decades. Recent studies have reported extensive phytoplankton blooms beneath ponded sea ice during summer, indicating that satellite-based Arctic annual primary production estimates may be significantly underestimated. Here we present a unique time-series of a phytoplankton spring bloom observed beneath snow-covered Arctic pack ice. The bloom, dominated by the haptophyte algaePhaeocystis pouchetii, caused near depletion of the surface nitrate inventory and a decline in dissolved inorganic carbon by 16 ± 6 g C m−2. Ocean circulation characteristics in the area indicated that the bloom developedin situdespite the snow-covered sea ice. Leads in the dynamic ice cover provided added sunlight necessary to initiate and sustain the bloom. Phytoplankton blooms beneath snow-covered ice might become more common and widespread in the future Arctic Ocean with frequent lead formation due to thinner and more dynamic sea ice despite projected increases in high-Arctic snowfall. This could alter productivity, marine food webs and carbon sequestration in the Arctic Ocean.

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a "foresighting/hindcasting" technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The "business-as-usual" future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:(i)proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation;(ii)supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation;(iii)enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management;(iv)investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks;(v)deploying marine-based renewable energy;(vi)deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies;(vii)developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and(viii)deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09678-4.

During the N-ICE2015 drift expedition north-west of Svalbard, we observed the establishment and development of algal communities in first-year ice (FYI) ridges and at the snow-ice interface. Despite some indications of being hot spots for biological activity, ridges are under-studied largely because they are complex structures that are difficult to sample. Snow infiltration communities can grow at the snow-ice interface when flooded. They have been commonly observed in the Antarctic, but rarely in the Arctic, where flooding is less common mainly due to a lower snow-to-ice thickness ratio. Combining biomass measurements and algal community analysis with under-ice irradiance and current measurements as well as light modeling, we comprehensively describe these two algal habitats in an Arctic pack ice environment. High biomass accumulation in ridges was facilitated by complex surfaces for algal deposition and attachment, increased light availability, and protection against strong under-ice currents. Notably, specific locations within the ridges were found to host distinct ice algal communities. The pennate diatoms Nitzschia frigida and Navicula species dominated the underside and inclined walls of submerged ice blocks, while the centric diatom Shionodiscus bioculatus dominated the top surfaces of the submerged ice blocks. Higher light levels than those in and below the sea ice, low mesozooplankton grazing, and physical concentration likely contributed to the high algal biomass at the snow-ice interface. These snow infiltration communities were dominated by Phaeocystis pouchetii and chain-forming pelagic diatoms (Fragilariopsis oceanica and Chaetoceros gelidus). Ridges are likely to form more frequently in a thinner and more dynamic ice pack, while the predicted increase in Arctic precipitation in some regions in combination with the thinning Arctic icescape might lead to larger areas of sea ice with negative freeboard and subsequent flooding during the melt season. Therefore, these two habitats are likely to become increasingly important in the new Arctic with implications for carbon export and transfer in the ice-associated ecosystem.

AbstractWarm Atlantic water (AW) that flows northward along the Svalbard west coast is thought to transport enough heat to melt regional Arctic sea ice effectively. Despite this common assumption, quantitative requirements necessary for AW to directly melt sea ice fast enough under realistic winter conditions are still poorly constrained. Here we use meteorological data, satellite observations of sea ice concentration and drift, and model output to demonstrate that most of the sea ice entering the area over the Yermak Plateau melts within a few weeks. Simulations using the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) in a 1‐D vertically resolved configuration under a relatively wide range of in situ observed atmospheric and ocean forcing show a good fit to observations. Simulations require high‐frequency atmospheric forcing data to accurately reproduce vertical heat fluxes between the ice or snow and the atmosphere. Moreover, we switched off hydrostatic equilibrium to properly reproduce ice and snow thickness when observations showed that ice had a negative freeboard, without surface flooding and snow‐ice formation. This modeling shows that realistic melt rates require a combination of warm near‐surface AW and storm‐induced ocean mixing. However, if AW is warmer than usual (>5°C), then lower mixing rates are sufficient. Our results suggest that increased winter storm frequency and increased heat content of the AW may work together in reducing future sea ice cover in the Eurasian basin.

AbstractA large retreat of sea-ice in the ‘stormy’ Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean has become evident through a series of record minima for the winter maximum sea-ice extent since 2015. Results from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition, a five-month-long (Jan-Jun) drifting ice station in first and second year pack-ice north of Svalbard, showcase how sea-ice in this region is frequently affected by passing winter storms. Here we synthesise the interdisciplinary N-ICE2015 dataset, including independent observations of the atmosphere, snow, sea-ice, ocean, and ecosystem. We build upon recent results and illustrate the different mechanisms through which winter storms impact the coupled Arctic sea-ice system. These short-lived and episodic synoptic-scale events transport pulses of heat and moisture into the Arctic, which temporarily reduce radiative cooling and henceforth ice growth. Cumulative snowfall from each sequential storm deepens the snow pack and insulates the sea-ice, further inhibiting ice growth throughout the remaining winter season. Strong winds fracture the ice cover, enhance ocean-ice-atmosphere heat fluxes, and make the ice more susceptible to lateral melt. In conclusion, the legacy of Arctic winter storms for sea-ice and the ice-associated ecosystem in the Atlantic Sector lasts far beyond their short lifespan.