• Energy Research

SummaryShrub encroachment, forest decline and wildfires have caused large‐scale changes in semi‐arid vegetation over the past 50 years. Climate is a primary determinant of plant growth in semi‐arid ecosystems, yet it remains difficult to forecast large‐scale vegetation shifts (i.e. biome shifts) in response to climate change. We highlight recent advances from four conceptual perspectives that are improving forecasts of semi‐arid biome shifts. Moving from small to large scales, first, tree‐level models that simulate the carbon costs of drought‐induced plant hydraulic failure are improving predictions of delayed‐mortality responses to drought. Second, tracer‐informed water flow models are improving predictions of species coexistence as a function of climate. Third, new applications of ecohydrological models are beginning to simulate small‐scale water movement processes at large scales. Fourth, remotely‐sensed measurements of plant traits such as relative canopy moisture are providing early‐warning signals that predict forest mortality more than a year in advance. We suggest that a community of researchers using modeling approaches (e.g. machine learning) that can integrate these perspectives will rapidly improve forecasts of semi‐arid biome shifts. Better forecasts can be expected to help prevent catastrophic changes in vegetation states by identifying improved monitoring approaches and by prioritizing high‐risk areas for management.

Abstract Forest mortality has been widely observed across the globe during recent episodes of drought and extreme heat events. But the future of forest mortality remains poorly understood. While the direct effects of future climate and elevated CO2 on forest mortality risk have been studied, the role of lateral subsurface water flow has rarely been considered. Here we demonstrated the fingerprint of lateral flow on the forest mortality risk of a riparian ecosystem using a coupled plant hydraulics-hydrology model prescribed with multiple Earth System Model projections of future hydroclimate. We showed that the anticipated water-saving and drought ameliorating effects of elevated CO2 on mortality risk were largely compromised when lateral hydrological processes were considered. Further, we found lateral flow reduce ecosystem sensitivity to climate variations, by removing soil water excess during wet periods and providing additional water from groundwater storage during dry periods. These findings challenge the prevailing expectation of elevated CO2 to reduce mortality risk and highlight the need to assess the effects of lateral flow exchange more explicitly moving forward with forest mortality projections.

AbstractThe reliance of 10 Utah (USA) aspen forests on direct infiltration of growing season rain versus an additional subsurface water subsidy was determined from a trait‐ and process‐based model of stomatal control. The model simulated the relationship between water supply to the root zone versus canopy transpiration and assimilation over a growing season. Canopy flux thresholds were identified that distinguished nonstressed, stressed, and dying stands. We found growing season rain and local soil moisture were insufficient for the survival of 5 of 10 stands. Six stands required a substantial subsidy (31–80% of potential seasonal transpiration) to avoid water stress and maximize photosynthetic potential. Subsidy dependence increased with stand hydraulic conductance. Four of the six “subsidized” stands were predicted to be stressed during the survey year owing to a subsidy shortfall. Since winter snowpack is closely related to groundwater recharge in the region, we compared winter precipitation with tree‐ring chronologies. Consistent with model predictions, chronologies were more sensitive to snowpack in subsidized stands than in nonsubsidized ones. The results imply that aspen stand health in the region is more coupled to winter snowpack than to growing season water supply. Winters are predicted to have less precipitation as snow, indicating a stressful future for the region's aspen forests.

AbstractFrom 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species‐specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co‐occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa, and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species' diverse mortality patterns using postdrought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modelling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were inconsistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of the degree of iso/anisohydry, photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of spring and summer whole‐tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance) and shallower rooting depths were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground.