• Energy Research

AbstractLocal adaptation is key for ecotypic differentiation and species evolution. Understanding underlying genomic patterns can allow the prediction of future maladaptation and ecosystem stability. Here, we report the whole-genome resequencing of 874 individuals from 100 range-wide populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), an important forest tree species in Europe. We show that genetic variation closely mirrors geography with a clear pattern of isolation-by-distance. Genome-wide analyses for genotype-environment associations (GEAs) identify relatively few potentially adaptive variants after correcting for an overwhelming signal of statistically significant but non-causal GEAs. We characterize the single high confidence genomic region and pinpoint a candidate gene possibly involved in winter temperature adaptation via modulation of spring phenology. Surprisingly, allelic variation at this locus does not result in any apparent fitness differences in a common garden. More generally, reciprocal transplant experiments across large climate distances suggest extensive phenotypic plasticity. Nevertheless, we find indications of polygenic adaptation which may be essential in natural ecosystems. This polygenic signal exhibits broad- and fine-scale variation across the landscape, highlighting the relevance of spatial resolution. In summary, our results emphasize the importance, but also exemplify the complexity, of employing natural genetic variation for forest conservation under climate change.

The most common tool to predict future changes in species range are species distribution models. These models do, however, often underestimate potential future habitat, as they do not account for phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation, although being the most important processes in the response of tree populations to rapid climate change. Here, we quantify the difference in the predictions of future range for Norway spruce, by (i) deriving a classic, occurrence-based species distribution model (OccurrenceSDM), and (ii) analysing the variation in juvenile tree height and translating this to species occurrence (TraitSDM). Making use of 32 site locations of the most comprehensive European trial series that includes 1,100 provenances of Norway spruce originating from its natural and further beyond from its largely extended, artificial distribution, we fit a universal response function to quantify growth as a function of site and provenance climate. Both the OccurrenceSDM and TraitSDM show a substantial retreat towards the northern latitudes and higher elevations (−55 and −43%, respectively, by the 2080s). However, thanks to the species’ particularly high phenotypic plasticity in juvenile height growth, the decline is delayed. The TraitSDM identifies increasing summer heat paired with decreasing water availability as the main climatic variable that restricts growth, while a prolonged frost-free period enables a longer period of active growth and therefore increasing growth potential within the restricted, remaining area. Clear signals of local adaptation to climatic clines spanning the entire range are barely detectable, as they are disguised by a latitudinal cline. This cline strongly reflects population differentiation for the Baltic domain, but fails to capture the high phenotypic variation associated to the geographic heterogeneity in the Central European mountain ranges paired with the species history of postglacial migration. Still the model is used to provide recommendations of optimal provenance choice for future climate conditions. In essence, assisted migration may not decrease the predicted range decline of Norway spruce, but may help to capitalize on potential opportunities for increased growth associated with warmer climates.