• Energy Research

Excess heat from industrial processes can be utilized in district heating networks, thereby reducing the primary energy demand and possibly the CO2 emissions for generating district heating. Numerous studies found a substantial potential of industrial excess heat, but have not systematically considered future changes in the energy system that will affect its utilization potential. Industrial production is set to transform to low-carbon processes and district heating needs to be generated without the use of fossil fuels. We quantify industrial excess heat using spatial matching for the EU-27, and considering the impact of the transformation to a climate-neutral energy system. The first step identifies excess heat potentials from energy-intensive industries as point sources, and considers process changes. The subsequent step spatially matches these excess heat potentials to district heating areas using a GIS-based approach. The results show that the amount of available excess heat will decrease significantly due to industry transformation. At the same time, the utilization could be increased due to lower district heating system temperatures and expanding district heating areas, resulting in 3-36 TWh per year. At local level, industrial excess heat can make a significant contribution to the supply of district heating in the future, but the major share will need to come from renewables.

Abstract The cement industry is the second-largest CO 2 emitting industrial sector in China, and it is faced with increasing worldwide criticism to pressure China to reduce its CO 2 emissions to acceptable level. In this study, the effects of potential technological improvement to China’s cement industry are evaluated and compared to the International Energy Agency (IEA) global target of CO 2 emissions reduction up to 2050 in the global cement industry. In other words, is it feasible to achieve half CO 2 emissions reductions (about 53%) in China’s cement industry by 2050, depending on the current technological knowledge and standards? Based on the typical production process for clinker manufacturing, the future emissions reduction path was analysed by building reasonable scenarios that might reflect the different consequences of economic and technological conditions. The results show that it seems technically possible to achieve the expected goal, regardless of the cement output rate according to current Best Available Technology (BAT). The relative contributions of four technology measures (clinker substitution, carbon capture and storage (CCS), efficiency improvement and alternative fuel use) to emissions reduction are about 37%, 33%, 15%, and 15%, respectively. However, further technology innovations are needed if a more ambitious objective (such as three-quarters reduction) is expected to be achieved. The technological shift will include not only efficiency improvements due to advanced production process, CCS technology and fuel/clinker substitution designs, but also changes in new building materials instead of cement products. A sensitivity analysis further shows that it is not possible to achieve the half emissions reduction target with current technological knowledge without making use of CCS technology and clinker substitution.

This presentation features innovations for deep decarbonisation of inustry as explored in the SET-Nav project.

In 2015, industrial sector installations included in the European emission trading system (EU ETS) emitted 574 Mt CO2-equivalent Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Among them are production of clinker, lime and ammonia, blast furnace operations, refineries and others. The emission intensity of these installations is closely tied to the fuel type used. Global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C recently presented by the IPCC require fast emission reduction in all sectors until 2030, followed by deep reductions, reaching carbon neutrality around 2050. In this paper, the technical potential to use biomass and electricity with existing or available technologies in important industrial processes is reviewed. The investigated industries account for 95% of the total verified emissions in the EU ETS industrial sector 2015 and 64% of total industrial emissions of the EU28. We find that 34% (184 Mt) of these emissions could be avoided from a technical perspective until 2030 with fuel switch measures towards biomass and electricity. This reduction is in line with 1.5 °C global warming scenarios until 2030, but further effort is required beyond that. We also find that available options lack economic competitiveness under present conditions, e.g. due to high electricity prices. We conclude that, although considerable fast emission saving potential by switching to biomass and electricity are possible, deep decarbonisation in line with climate targets requires innovative production processes only available in the long term.

Abstract Turkey’s energy demand has been growing by 4.5% per year over the last decade. As a reaction to this, the Turkish government has implemented the Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan (SEEP), which provides a guideline for energy efficiency policies in all sectors. The aim of this study is to analyse the potential of the SEEP on final energy demand in the Turkish residential sector until 2030. Three scenarios are developed based on a detailed bottom-up modelling approach using a vintage stock model to simulate the energy demand of heating systems and appliances. The results show a decreasing final energy demand in the reference scenario from about 944 PJ in 2008 to 843 PJ in 2030. This reflects a structural break, which is mainly caused by a high building demolition rate and low efficiency in the existing building stock. The SEEP achieves additional savings of around 111 PJ until 2030, while a scenario with even higher efficiency shows further savings of 91 PJ. Electricity demand increases in all scenarios – mainly due to growing ownership rates of appliances. The SEEP will achieve around 10 TWh of electricity savings in 2030 compared to the reference scenario, mainly through more ambitious end-use standards.

AbstractThe transition towards climate-neutral industry is a challenge, particularly for heavy industries like steel and basic chemicals. Existing models for assessing industrial transformation often lack spatial resolution and fail to capture individual investment decisions. Consequently, the spatial interplay between industry transformation, energy availability, infrastructure availability, and the dynamics of discrete investments is inadequately addressed. Here we present a site-specific approach that considers individual industrial sites to simulate discrete investment decisions. The investment decision is modelled as a discrete choice among alternative technologies with their total cost of ownership as the main decision criterion. Process costs depend on the scenario-specific assumptions, such as energy carrier prices, policy instruments and local infrastructures. The age of production units and their reinvestment cycles are considered the main restrictions on the dynamics of the transition. The results provide high spatial resolution to capture the spatial and temporal dynamics of industry transition under varying process and policy assumptions. The presented model and its results can be coupled with energy system models to assess the implications of site-specific industry transition on energy system related research questions. We conduct an exemplary case study for a transformation pathway of the European primary steel production.

The diffusion of cost-effective energy-efficiency measures (EEMs) in firms is often surprisingly slow. This phenomenon is usually attributed to a variety of barriers which have been the focus of numerous studies over the last two decades. However, many studies treat EEMs homogenously and assume they have few inherent differences apart from their profitability.We argue that complementing such analyses by considering the characteristics of EEMs in a structured manner can enhance the understanding of EEM adoption. For this purpose, we suggest a classification scheme for EEMs in industry which aims to provide a better understanding of their adoption by industrial firms and to assist in selecting and designing energy-efficiency policies.The suggested classification scheme is derived from the literature on the adoption of EEMs and the related fields including the diffusion of innovations, eco-innovations and advanced manufacturing technology. Our proposed scheme includes 12 characteristics based on the relative advantage, the technical and the information context of the EEM. Applying this classification scheme to six example EEMs demonstrates that it can help to systematically explain why certain EEMs diffuse faster than others. Furthermore, it provides a basis for identifying policies able to increase the rate of adoption.

As the majority of industrial emissions stems from heat generation, the choice of fuel is, next to energy efficiency, one of the tools to influence climate impact (and security of supply) in industrial energy use. At the same time, the choice of fuel is not only a matter of price but of the furnace, it is used in. Top-down models often struggle to include technological explicitness, which is especially important to represent the heterogeneous structure of industrial energy demand. In this paper, an approach to apply a discrete choice model to industrial high temperature energy demand is presented. The model's parameters are estimated based on observed fuel choices. The model exhibits an average coefficient of determination of 0.45 when compared to a constant fuel use from 2002 to 2013 in major countries of the European Union. Results suggest that energy carriers are perceived very differently by industrial consumers.