• Energy Research

AbstractAimClimate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes.Location: Andes.Taxon: Plants.MethodsWe (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models.ResultsFuture climatic changes (2040–2070) are projected to be stronger at high‐elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst‐case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%–23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high‐elevation areas, a lack of high‐resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling.Main conclusionsClimate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region‐wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

China is investing immense resources for planting trees, totalling more than US$ 100 billion in the past decade alone. Every year, China reports more afforestation than the rest of the world combined. Here, we show that China's forest cover gains are highly definition-dependent. If the definition of ‘forest’ follows FAO criteria (including immature and temporarily unstocked areas), China has gained 434 000 km 2 between 2000 and 2010. However, remotely detectable gains of vegetation that non-specialists would view as forest (tree cover higher than 5 m and minimum 50% crown cover) are an order of magnitude less (33 000 km 2 ). Using high-resolution maps and environmental modelling, we estimate that approximately 50% of the world's forest with minimum 50% crown cover has been lost in the past approximately 10 000 years. China historically lost 1.9–2.7 million km 2 (59–67%), and substantial losses continue. At the same time, most of China's afforestation investment targets environments that our model classes as unsuitable for trees. Here, gains detectable via satellite imagery are limited. Conversely, the regions where modest gains are detected are environmentally suitable but have received little afforestation investment due to conflicting land-use demands for agriculture and urbanization. This highlights the need for refined forest monitoring, and greater consideration of environmental suitability in afforestation programmes.