• Energy Research

16 pages, 7 figures, 1 table The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3-4):263-271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1-25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO2 pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO2 values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht This study has been carried out in the framework of project TIC-MOC (CTM2011-28867), funded by the 2008-2011 Spanish R+D Plan. C. Herrero acknowledges a CSIC JAE-Predoc scholarship co-financed by the European Social Fund (FSE) Peer Reviewed

A principis del segle XVI Leonardo da Vinci comparava els corrents oceànics amb el fl ux de sang d’un cos humà. Actualment disposem d’informació sufi cient per a explorar la idea que la Terra té un sistema circulatori responsable de capturar, transformar i distribuir l’energia solar. El paper dels oceans com a reguladors del clima és extraordinari, realment condicionen el present i el futur del planeta.

AbstractThe South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in the heat exchange of the climate system, as it hosts the returning flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To gain insights on this role, using data from three hydrographic cruises conducted in the South Atlantic Subtropical gyre at 34.5°S, 24°S, and 10°W, we identify water masses and compute absolute geostrophic circulation using inverse modeling. In the upper layers, the currents describe the South Atlantic anticyclonic gyre with the northwest flowing Benguela Current (26.3 ± 2.0 Sv at 34.5°S, and 21.2 ± 1.8 Sv at 24°S) flowing above the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge (MAR) between 22.4°S and 28.4°S (−19.2 ± 1.4 Sv), and the southward flowing Brazil Current (−16.5 ± 1.3 Sv at 34.5°S, and −7.3 ± 0.9 Sv at 24°S); the deep layers feature the southward transports of Deep Western Boundary Current (−13.9 ± 3.0 Sv at 34.5°S, and −8.7 ± 3.8 Sv at 24°S) and Deep Eastern Boundary Current (−15.1 ± 3.5 Sv at 34.5°S, and −16.3 ± 4.7 Sv at 24°S), with the interbasin west‐to‐east flow close to 24°S (7.5 ± 4.4 Sv); the abyssal waters present northward mass transports through the Argentina Basin (5.6 ± 1.1 Sv at 34.5°S, and 5.8 ± 1.5 Sv at 24°S) and Cape Basin (8.6 ± 3.5 Sv at 34.5°S–3.0 ± 0.8 Sv at 24°S) before returning southward (−2.2 ± 0.7 Sv at 24°S to −7.9 ± 3.6 Sv at 34.5°S), without any interbasin exchange across the MAR. In addition, we compute the upper AMOC strength (14.8 ± 1.0 and 17.5 ± 0.9 Sv), the equatorward heat transport (0.30 ± 0.05 and 0.80 ± 0.05 PW), and the freshwater flux (0.18 ± 0.02 and −0.07 ± 0.02 Sv) at 34.5°S and 24°S, respectively.