• Energy Research

Abstract Responses to climate change have often been found to lag behind the rate of warming that has occurred. In addition to dispersal limitation potentially restricting spread at leading range margins, the persistence of species in new and unsuitable conditions is thought to be responsible for apparent time‐lags. Soil seed banks can allow plant communities to temporarily buffer unsuitable environmental conditions, but their potential to slow responses to long‐term climate change is largely unknown. As local forest cover can also buffer the effects of a warming climate, it is important to understand how seed banks might interact with land cover to mediate community responses to climate change. We first related species‐level seed bank persistence and distribution‐derived climatic niches for 840 plant species. We then used a database of plant community data from grasslands, forests and intermediate successional habitats from across Europe to investigate relationships between seed banks and their corresponding herb layers in 2763 plots in the context of climate and land cover. We found that species from warmer climates and with broader distributions are more likely to have a higher seed bank persistence, resulting in seed banks that are composed of species with warmer and broader climatic distributions than their corresponding herb layers. This was consistent across our climatic extent, with larger differences (seed banks from even warmer climates relative to vegetation) found in grasslands. Synthesis. Seed banks have been shown to buffer plant communities through periods of environmental variability, and in a period of climate change might be expected to contain species reflecting past, cooler conditions. Here, we show that persistent seed banks often contain species with relatively warm climatic niches and those with wide climatic ranges. Although these patterns may not be primarily driven by species' climatic adaptations, the prominence of such species in seed banks might still facilitate climate‐driven community shifts. Additionally, seed banks may be related to ongoing trends regarding the spread of widespread generalist species into natural habitats, while cool‐associated species may be at risk from both short‐ and long‐term climatic variability and change.

This study examined the adaptive association between seed germination ecology and specialization to either forest or open habitats across a range of evolutionary lineages of seed plants, in order to test the hypotheses that (1) species' specialization to open vs. shaded habitats is consistently accompanied by specialization in their regeneration niche; and (2) species are thereby adapted to utilize different windows of opportunity in time (season) and space (habitat).Seed germination response to temperature, light and stratification was tested for 17 congeneric pairs, each consisting of one forest species and one open-habitat species. A factorial design was used with temperature levels and diurnal temperature variation (10 °C constant, 15-5 °C fluctuating, 20 °C constant, 25-15 °C fluctuating), and two light levels (light and darkness) and a cold stratification treatment. The congeneric species pair design took phylogenetic dependence into account.Species from open habitats germinated better at high temperatures, whereas forest species performed equally well at low and high temperatures. Forest species tended to germinate only after a period of cold stratification that could break dormancy, while species from open habitats generally germinated without cold stratification. The empirically derived germination strategies correspond quite well with establishment opportunities for forest and open-habitat plant species in nature.Annual changes in temperature and light regime in temperate forest delimit windows of opportunity for germination and establishment. Germination strategies of forest plants are adaptations to utilize such narrow windows in time. Conversely, lack of fit between germination ecology and environment may explain why species of open habitats generally fail to establish in forests. Germination strategy should be considered an important mechanism for habitat specialization in temperate herbs to forest habitats. The findings strongly suggest that phases in the plant life cycle other than the established phase should be considered important in adaptive specialization.

As Earth’s climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species‐specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate ‘winner’ overall, coupling the model with changes in demography and small‐scale habitat suitability resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundance due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.

Summary Insect responses to recent climate change are well documented, but the role of resource specialization in determining species vulnerability remains poorly understood. Uncovering local ecological effects of temperature change with high‐quality, standardized data provides an important first opportunity for predictions about responses of resource specialists, and long‐term time series are essential in revealing these responses. Here, we investigate temperature‐related changes in local insect communities, using a sampling site with more than a quarter‐million records from two decades (1992–2009) of full‐season, quantitative light trapping of 1543 species of moths and beetles. We investigated annual as well as long‐term changes in fauna composition, abundance and phenology in a climate‐related context using species temperature affinities and local temperature data. Finally, we explored these local changes in the context of dietary specialization. Across both moths and beetles, temperature affinity of specialists increased through net gain of hot‐dwelling species and net loss of cold‐dwelling species. The climate‐related composition of generalists remained constant over time. We observed an increase in species richness of both groups. Furthermore, we observed divergent phenological responses between cold‐ and hot‐dwelling species, advancing and delaying their relative abundance, respectively. Phenological advances were particularly pronounced in cold‐adapted specialists. Our results suggest an important role of resource specialization in explaining the compositional and phenological responses of insect communities to local temperature increases. We propose that resource specialists in particular are affected by local temperature increase, leading to the distinct temperature‐mediated turnover seen for this group. We suggest that the observed increase in species number could have been facilitated by dissimilar utilization of an expanded growing season by cold‐ and hot‐adapted species, as indicated by their oppositely directed phenological responses. An especially pronounced advancement of cold‐adapted specialists suggests that such phenological advances might help minimize further temperature‐induced loss of resource specialists. Although limited to a single study site, our results suggest several local changes in the insect fauna in concordance with expected change of larger‐scale temperature increases.