• Energy Research

Abstract This study aims to provide an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) perspective of the production and distribution of alternative marine fuels in Brazilian ports, considering the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction target for 2050 (IMO2050). Although other mitigation measures are available, it is likely that alternative fuels will be required, implying additional costs and entailing relevant impacts on other energy chains and land use. Hence, the national IAM BLUES model is adapted to represent the relevant part of the international shipping sector. A set of scenarios is developed considering different fuel alternatives, demand assumptions and national mitigation targets. Findings show that taking into account emissions of CO2 only or of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) within the IMO strategy significantly impacts the optimal technological portfolio. Furthermore, achieving the IMO2050 goal without considering a national decarbonization strategy may result in potential spillovers. The intense use of the energy sector could partially compromise the gains obtained by maritime decarbonization or even surpass it. Therefore, only an integrated mitigation strategy would lead to more effective decarbonization of the entire marine supply.

Abstract This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work.

Abstract The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has compromised to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the mid- and long-terms. Besides energy efficiency measures, the development of potentially carbon neutral fuels in the upcoming years is key to achieve the sector's goals. Brazil is a major commodity exporter whose unfavored geographical position increases the carbon intensity of its maritime transportation. In this context, this study presents a multicriteria methodology to compare possible alternative fuels for the Brazilian maritime trade. To this end, 14 fuel options are evaluated according to technical, economic, and environmental criteria to which different weights are assigned. The ranking of results indicates that drop-in fuels such as Fischer-Tropsch diesel, alcohol-based diesel, straight and hydrotreated vegetable oils and e-diesel stand out as promising mid-term alternatives. Biomass-based liquefied natural gas (Bio-LNG) performance in the evaluation is hampered mostly by the risk of methane slip. Green hydrogen and green ammonia, on the other hand, seem to be less competitive alternatives in the mid-term horizon for Brazil but may become alternatives for cabotage transport in the long-term.

AbstractThis paper assesses the biojet fuel production potential in Brazil. It evaluates feedstock availability by applying a georeferencing analysis, and determines the cost‐effectiveness and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of selected production routes throughout their entire life cycle. This study identifies and locates Brazilian hotspots in terms of bioenergy availability and proximity to the main sites of fuel consumption and handling in the country. Findings show that the biomass availability for each crop in the hotspots would be sufficient to feed the biojet conversion plants proposed in this study. The biojet production potential in the hotspots would represent 48% of the country's jet fuel consumption in 2014, allowing the current certificated 50% blend with conventional fuel. The major biomass hotspots are close to airport and fuel logistic basis. However, even with a US$ 200.tCO–1 2 tax, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biojet is far from being competitive with petroleum‐based jet fuel, whereas the Fischer–Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene (FT‐SPK) route may produce a competitive biojet. One possible pathway to incentivize biojet fuel production in Brazil would be, first, to implement carbon taxes that would allow the development of smaller plants. Then, with technological learning and larger production scales, it would be possible to reduce or even eliminate the carbon taxes. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract The production of electricity using concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is not yet possible in Brazil due to the technology’s high capital costs and the lack of a local industry. However, this study introduces a low-cost approach to CSP in Brazil by describing and simulating the operation of hybrid CSP plants that use sustainably managed biomass in Brazil’s semiarid northeast. Biomass hybridisation of a CSP plant with a solar multiple (SM) of 1.2 and a biomass fill fraction (BFF) of 30% can generate electricity at 110 USD/MWh. The high direct normal irradiation (DNI) and the availability of local low-cost biomass in Brazil’s semiarid northeast suggest the possibility of developing a CSP industry capable of supplying low-cost components under a national program framework, with the co-benefits of local job and income generation. For example, the deployment of 10 CSP plants of 30 MWe each would generate 760 direct and indirect jobs during the 24 months of plant construction and approximately 2100 annual jobs associated with the operation and maintenance (O&M) of the generating units. These 10 new units would generate additional local income on the order of USD 57 million.

AbstractThis study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) committed to reduce by 50% the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping by 2050 compared to 2008 levels. Future low-carbon fuels use in the maritime transport to curb GHG emissions can increase freight rates and affect trade, especially for commodities transported over long distances. This study performed a case study to evaluate lignocellulosic marine biofuels use in soybean trade routes from Brazil and U.S. to China, in terms of supply volumes, GHG emissions and potential increase on freight costs. This is the first attempt to assess biofuel use in a specific product trade. To this end, two scenarios and three technologies were developed for biofuels availability from 2020 to 2050. Findings reveal that Brazil benefits from higher biofuel supply and four Brazilian biofuel pathways meet total bunker fuel demand in 2050, while U.S. pathways supplied up to 24%. However, emission reduction come at significant cost increase with abatement costs reaching more than US$ 300/tCO2e for some of the Brazilian and U.S. pathways. To reduce this cost gap, market instruments, such as carbon price of at least US$ 100/tCO2e would be required. Nevertheless, fuel cost increase has not resulted in significant cost variation between Brazilian and U.S. vessel routes. Hence, Brazilian trade routes could keep lower freight costs than U.S. even with higher biofuel shares. This indicates that regions capable of supplying low-carbon fuels can become more competitive in their exports in a decarbonized maritime trade.

Abstract In recent years, the decarbonisation of international shipping has become an important policy goal. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for around 0.75 GtCO2/yr. Here, we perform the first multi-IAM analysis of international shipping, drawing on the results of six global models. Results indicate the need for decreasing emissions in the next decades, with reductions up to 88% in 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonisation of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes of conventional maritime fuels.