• Energy Research

Climate change mitigation requires a transition towards a more sustainable system which eventually achieves circularity and climate-neutrality in all sectors, including agriculture. Despite the consensus about this ultimate goal, there is no unique way forward to achieve it. In this regard, usual questions that policy-makers face without having a clear answer relate to the potential deployment of new technology, the possibility of limiting certain economic activities, the externalities that will emanate from their interventions, etc. The aim of this study is to support the policy debate by exploring the potential impacts of several pathways that Dutch agriculture could follow for this transition. This paper presents a methodological approach on how to translate policy objectives into sustainability requirements using a linear programming (LP) model. This model which delivers insights on the optimal size of several agricultural activities has been used for facilitating stakeholder participation in scenario design. By using the Netherlands as a case study, an integrated assessment of several pathways that the Dutch agricultural sector could follow was carried out to contribute to the design of the future development strategy. The outcomes of the multidisciplinary assessment shows that it is feasible to meet long-term (2050) climate and environmental objectives for Dutch agriculture along different pathways. More specifically, limiting the size of the livestock sectors turned out to be necessary to achieve the intended emissions reductions. As a result the land use changed, with an increase in (agro-)forestry being unavoidable when strict climate neutrality would be required.

Er is behoefte aan een methodiek waarbij op eenvoudige wijze de interactie tussen landbouw-, milieu- en natuurrandvoorwaarden in kaart kan worden gebracht. In het project Milieugebruiksruimte in programma 398-III wordt een eenvoudige methodiek ontwikkeld om inzichtelijk te maken welke teelten/landbouwsystemen duurzaam aanwezig kunnen zijn in een bepaalde regio, rekening houdend met de functies van de betreffende regio (landbouw, natuur, recreatie), alsmede specifieke (geo)hydrologische situatie en de eigenschappen van de grondsoorten. In 2002 is het model INITIATOR gekozen als eenvoudige methodiek. In 2003 wordt deze methodiek toegepast voor het vaststellen van de nutriëntendruk (N en P) in specifieke regio's (o.a. zandgebieden, hoog en laagveengebieden en zee- en rivierkleigebieden). De verdere ontwikkeling en validatie van deze benadering zal in 2004-2005 worden uitgevoerd, waarbij gebruik gemaakt kan worden van de resultaten uit de twee andere Mest- en Mineralenprogramma's

Changes in the Earth's atmosphere are expected to influence the growth, and therefore, carbon accumulation of European forests. We identify three major changes: (1) a rise in carbon dioxide concentration, (2) climate change, resulting in higher temperatures and changes in precipitation and (3) a decrease in nitrogen deposition. We adjusted and applied the hydrological model Watbal, the soil model SMART2 and the vegetation model SUMO2 to asses the effect of expected changes in the period 1990 up to 2070 on the carbon accumulation in trees and soils of 166 European forest plots. The models were parameterized using measured soil and vegetation parameters and site-specific changes in temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition. The carbon dioxide concentration was assumed to rise uniformly across Europe. The results were compared to a reference scenario consisting of a constant CO2 concentration and deposition scenario. The temperature and precipitation scenario was a repetition of the period between 1960 and 1990. All scenarios were compared to the reference scenario for biomass growth and carbon sequestration for both the soil and the trees. The predicted effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration by trees depend largely on tree species and location (latitude). The assumed decrease in nitrogen deposition causes a decrease of carbon accumulation all over Europe and for all modelled tree species. A rise in carbon dioxide concentration gives a rise in carbon accumulation all over Europe. Climate change gives a mixed result, with a decrease in carbon accumulation in the South of Europe and an increase in the North. When the scenarios are combined, an increase in biomass accumulation is predicted at most of the sites, with a rise in growth rate mostly between 0 and 100%. The predicted effects of a change in climate, CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition on soil carbon sequestration is generally lower than the effect on carbon sequestration by the trees. However, the magnitude is similar as is the location effect (latitude). A net carbon release was predicted at several sites in the south due to the effect of climate change. Overall, we conclude that where nitrogen deposition was a major driver for a change in forest growth in the past, it is climate change, and to a lesser extent CO2 change, that will influence forest growth in the future.

Kringlooplandbouw is een vorm van landbouw waarbij de nadruk ligt op het gebruik van op het bedrijf aanwezige hulpbronnen en voorraden, en het behalen van voldoende inkomen over langere termijn met het behoud van de kwaliteit van natuurlijke ecosystemen. In Nationaal Landschap ‘Noardlike Fryske Wâlden’ (NFW) wordt in de melkveehouderij een vorm van kringlooplandbouw bedreven die zich onder andere kenmerkt door het voeren van de melkkoeien met een structuurrijk en eiwitarm dieet, minder gebruik van kunstmest, het bovengronds uitrijden van dierlijke mest en de focus op een hogere bodembenutting van stikstof (N) uit dierlijke mest. Bij deze vorm van kringlooplandbouw ligt de focus op levering van ecosysteemdiensten door de bodem, vanuit haar diverse functies. Belangrijke ecosysteemdiensten, waarbij door de bodem een aanzienlijke bijdrage wordt geleverd, zijn de voedsel- en biomassaproductie, de grondwaterkwaliteit, de opslag van koolstof en de regulering van nutriënten. De maatschappelijke doorwerking van kringlooplandbouw is in potentie zeer groot, en de belangstelling vanuit de maatschappij voor deze vorm van landbouw neemt toe.

Changes in climate, technology, policy and prices affect agricultural and rural development. To evaluate whether this development is sustainable, impacts of these multiple drivers need to be assessed for multiple indicators. In a case study area in the Netherlands, a bio-economic farm model, an agent-based land-use change model, and a regional emission model have been used to simulate rural development under two plausible global change scenarios at both farm and landscape level. Results show that in this area, climate change will have mainly negative economic impacts (dairy gross margin, arable gross margin, economic efficiency, milk production) in the warmer and drier W + scenario, while impacts are slightly positive in the G scenario with moderate climate change. Dairy farmers are worse off than arable farmers in both scenarios. Conversely, when the W + scenario is embedded in the socio-economic Global Economy (GE) scenario, changes in technology, prices, and policy are projected to have a positive economic impact, more than offsetting the negative climate impacts. Important is, however, that environmental impacts (global warming, terrestrial and aquatic eutrophication) are largely negative and social impacts (farm size, number of farms, nature area, odour) are mixed. In the G scenario combined with the socio-economic Regional Communities (RC) scenario the average dairy gross margin in particular is negatively affected. Social impacts are similarly mixed as in the GE scenario, while environmental impacts are less severe. Our results suggest that integrated assessments at farm and landscape level can be used to guide decision-makers in spatial planning policies and climate change adaptation. As there will always be trade-offs between economic, social, and environmental impacts stakeholders need to interact and decide upon most important directions for policies. This implies a choice between production and income on the one hand and social and environmental services on the other hand

In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable crops; the CAPRI model to estimate impacts on global agricultural markets, specifically product prices; the bio-economic farm model FSSIM to calculate the future changes in cropping patterns and farm net income at the farm and regional level; and the environmental model INTEGRATOR to calculate nitrogen (N) uptake and losses to air and water. First, the four linked models were applied to analyse the effect of climate change only or a most likely baseline (i.e. B1) scenario for 2050 as well as for two alternative scenarios with, respectively, strong (i.e. A1-b1) and weak economic growth (B2) for five regions/countries across Europe (i.e. Denmark, Flevoland, Midi Pyrenées, Zachodniopomorski and Andalucia). These analyses were repeated but assuming in addition to climate change impacts, also the effects of changes in technology and management on crop yields, the effects of changes in prices and policies in 2050, and the effects of all factors together. The outcomes show that the effects of climate change to 2050 result in higher farm net incomes in the Northern and Northern-Central EU regions, in practically unchanged farm net incomes in the Central and Central-Southern EU regions, and in much lower farm net incomes in Southern EU regions compared to those in the base year. Climate change in combination with improved technology and farm management and/or with price changes towards 2050 results in a higher to much higher farm net incomes. Increases in farm net income for the B1 and A1-b1 scenarios are moderately stronger than those for the B2 scenario, due to the smaller increases in product prices and/or yields for the B2 scenario. Farm labour demand slightly to moderately increases towards 2050 as related to changes in cropping patterns. Changes in N2O emissions and N leaching compared to the base year are mainly caused by changes in total N inputs from the applied fertilizers and animal manure, which in turn are influenced by changes in crop yields and cropping patterns, whereas NH3 emissions are mainly determined by assumed improvements in manure application techniques. N emissions and N leaching strongly increase in Denmark and Zachodniopomorski, slightly decrease to moderately increase in Flevoland and Midi-Pyrenées, and strongly decrease in Andalucia, except for NH3 emissions which zero to moderately decrease in Flevoland and Denmark.

In de Natura 2000-gebieden in het Heuvelland worden habitattypen en andere natuurwaarden op hellingen grenzend aan landbouwpercelen negatief beïnvloed door toestroom van voedselrijk water en bodemmateriaal. Hierdoor neemt verruiging toe en nemen kansen voor behoud en uitbreiding van karakteristieke soorten af. Bij ernstige vormen van erosie kunnen kwalificerende groeiplaatsen verdwijnen, niet alleen door erosie zelf, maar ook doordat voedselrijk bodemmateriaal (sediment) laagten opvult en bronnen en bovenloopjes van beken onderdeel worden van erosiebanen. Bufferzones kunnen in potentie deze invloed beperken door directe inwaai en oppervlakkige toestroom van meststoffen en bodemmateriaal af te vangen. Dit rapport beschrijft: 1. hoe de instroom van nutriënten vanuit bovenliggende landbouwgronden kan worden beschreven en beoordeeld in relatie tot terrein- en vegetatiekenmerken; 2. hoe bufferzones (en meer in het algemeen: maatregelen om instroom te voorkomen, te beperken en/of te sturen) functioneren; 3. hoe maatregelen, beheervormen en vormen van landgebruik effectief kunnen worden toegepast om negatieve effecten van (bodem)erosie binnen en in de randzone van Natura 2000-gebieden in het Heuvelland tegen te gaan.