• Energy Research

The paper has two main goals: to draw a summary picture of the progress made towards transport decarbonisation in Europe, and to identify future developments concerning the 2020–2030 decade. The analysis is based on the 4th and 5th reports prepared by the Member States under the obligation Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) and on the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) for the 2020–2030 decade, paying specific attention to the use of renewables in the transport sector. We find that the Member States rely on two strategies: increasing the production and use of biofuels, especially those produced by advanced materials, and supporting the diffusion of electric vehicles. Performing a scenario analysis capturing the planned policies and goals indicated in the NECPs, we estimate that the biofuel strategy can deliver a GHG reduction of up to 19 MtCO2eq (−3.6%), while the electrification strategy can deliver a GHG reduction up to 45 MtCO2eq (−8.3%). Jointly used, the GHG reduction could reach up to 64 MtCO2eq (−11.9%).

We present the results of a stated preference study undertaken in Italy in 2017 on individuals’ preferences between an electric car (EC) and a petrol car, with the purpose of assessing the impact of the latent variable EC knowledge on purchasing decisions. We estimate a multinomial, a mixed and two hybrid mixed logit models, with the interaction between EC knowledge, car attributes and additional exogenous covariates. We use three measurement equations to estimate the self-assessed car knowledge, assessed EC knowledge and EC driving experience. We report three main findings. First, the inclusion of EC knowledge improves our capability to explain car choice. Second, the degree of EC knowledge does not change the negative perception respondents have, ceteris paribus, on ECs. Third, the level of EC knowledge influences the importance placed on the attributes of the choice model. Specifically, a higher level of EC knowledge is associated with a lower concern with fast charging station density. Our results are useful for car manufacturers who wish to improve their marketing strategies through tailored advertising efforts, and for policy makers who wish to implement educational campaigns as a means to foster EC uptake.

This paper presents a comprehensive review of scientific papers and market reports analyzing the economic competitiveness of fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) with respect to their conventional alternatives via the total cost of ownership (TCO) methodology. We discussed the variables and data taken into account and compared the resulting outcomes by year and geographical areas. It emerged that FCBs are not currently cost competitive. The decreasing trend in acquisition and fuel costs, however, indicates potential for future competitiveness. We find that the current TCO literature on FCEBs presents several areas of uncertainty and weakness. Potential improvements can be achieved by: (i) extending the geographic coverage to Asian and African developing countries; (ii) making use of real-world data instead of simulated data, in particular, concerning acquisition costs, hydrogen costs under different pathways, fuel efficiency, and maintenance costs; (iii) clarifying the role of infrastructural costs; (iv) exploring the existence of economies of scale at fleet level; (v) distinguishing among different bus sizes.

Il contributo presenta una discussione sul ruolo dei trasporti nel cambiamento climatico. A differenza degli altri settori di attività economica, quello dei trasporti ha visto crescere in Europa nel corso degli ultimi tre decenni la quantità di emissioni di CO2 rilasciata nell’atmosfera, ponendo i leader euro-pei di fronte alla necessità di dar vita ad azioni atte a contrastare questa tendenza. Sosteniamo che la decarbonizzazione dei trasporti può avvenire da parte del decisore pubblico attraverso politiche di carbon pricing, definendo standard di emissione e stimolando le innovazioni tecnologiche, come il ricorso ai biocarburanti, l’idrogeno e l’elettromobilità. L’Unione Europea ha delineato la necessità di imboccare un nuovo paradigma economico, sociale e politico nel dicembre 2019 attraverso la reda-zione dello European Green Deal, con l’obiettivo ultimo di giungere al 2050 al completo annullamento delle emissioni di gas ad effetto serra. Il contributo evidenzia i progressi dei Paesi membri verso la decarbonizzazione nel periodo tra il 2015 e il 2018 ed espone come gli stessi contano di raggiungere gli obiettivi di emissioni ed efficientamento energetico stabiliti dalla Commissione Europea per il 2030. L’esame dei Piani Nazionali Integrati per l’Energia e il Clima evidenzia che le due principali strade imboccate dagli stati membri per raggiungere la neutralità carbonica sono il ricorso ai biocarburanti e la diffusione dei veicoli elettrici. Il lavoro sottolinea come sia arduo realizzare un’analisi sui possibili scenari verso la decarbonizzazione perché vi sono fattori fortemente connessi con la possibilità di realizzare innovazioni tecnologiche spesso radicali. Il lavoro sostiene l’importanza di dedicare risorse pubbliche a campagne informative sull’evoluzione delle tecnologie pulite e sulla necessità di diffonde-re la cultura della sostenibilità ambientale ai più ampi strati della popolazione. The paper presents a discussion on the role of transport in climate change. Unlike other sectors of economic activity in Europe, we witnessed an increase in the amount of CO2 emissions released in the atmosphere in the last three decades due to transport, pushing European leaders to take actions to counteract this trend. We argue that the decarbonisation of transport can take place by the public decision maker through carbon pricing policies, defining emission standards and stimulating technological innovations, such as the use of biofuels, hydrogen and electromobility. We focus on the case of the European Union which outlined the need to embark on a new economic, social and political paradigm in December 2019 through the European Green Deal, with the ultimate goal of reaching the complete elimination of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The paper highlights the progress of member states towards decarbonisation in the period between 2015 and 2018 and explains how they plan to achieve the emissions and energy efficiency targets set by the European Commission for 2030. The examination of the National Energy and Climate Plan highlights that the two main paths member states took to achieve carbon neutrality are the use of biofuels and the uptake of electric vehicles. The work underlines how difficult it is to undertake an analysis of possible scenarios towards decar-bonisation because there are factors tightly connected with the possibility to achieve often radical techno-logical innovations. We emphasize how important it is to devote public resources to information campaigns on the evolution of clean technologies and on the need to spread the of environmental sustainability to the broadest share of the population.

This paper investigates the economic competitiveness of hydrogen-powered trucks. It reviews the growing number of papers that provide an estimate of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of hydrogen-powered trucks relative to their diesel equivalents. It examines the methodology applied, the variables considered, the data used for estimation, and the results obtained. All reviewed studies conclude that hydrogen-powered trucks are not currently cost-competitive, while they might become competitive after 2030. The conclusion holds across truck types and sizes, hydrogen pathways, mission profiles, and countries. However, we find that there is still a huge area of uncertainty regarding the purchase price of hydrogen-powered trucks and the cost of hydrogen, which hampers the reliability of the results obtained. Various areas of methodological improvements are suggested.

We report the results of a stated preference study (N = 1,934) carried out at the end of 2018 on consumers’ choices between electric cars and petrol cars in Italy and Slovenia. We estimate a hybrid mixed logit model that takes into account vehicle, infrastructure and policy attributes and two attitudinal attributes, i.e. environmental awareness and electric car knowledge. We find that purchase price and driving range play a crucial role in consumers’ decisions in both countries, whereas charging time is not statistically significant. Comparing the two countries, price sensitivity is relatively stronger in Italy, while the sensitivity for driving range and fuel economy is relatively stronger in Slovenia. Of the two latent variables we tested, we find that only environmental awareness has a statistically significant positive impact on the choice of electric cars and that it is stronger for Italians compared to Slovenians. The structural component of this latent variable indicates that women are more concerned about the environment than men, but only for the Slovenian subsample. Surprisingly, no statistically significant relationship is found between environmental awareness and age. Younger respondents are as concerned as older ones about the environment both in Italy and in Slovenia.

The paper investigates whether it makes economic sense to use electric vehicles (EVs) in the public sector fleet. Thanks to the data collected in 2018 in 77 public sector entities in an Italian region, Friuli Venezia Giulia, we compare the total cost of ownership of a battery electric vehicle with that of a similar internal combustion engine one. We provide estimates for four scenarios (status quo, social cost internalization, price discounts and a combination of the last two) for three groups of public entities (local health authorities, municipalities and special purpose authorities) regarding passenger cars and mixed-use small light commercial vehicles. We find that, with the current price and cost structure, it makes economic sense to adopt EVs for a positive although relatively small percentage of the public sector fleet.

As electric vehicles gain acceptance, an increasing number of households consider the possibility of buying the bundle including an electric car, a photovoltaic system, and a battery storage unit. Apart from the attractive environmental benefits, a relevant uncertainty concerns the economic convenience of such a choice. Since many variables play a role, we set up a total cost of ownership model to evaluate whether, and under which conditions, the bundle is cost-competitive relative to buying an electric car only (and charging it from the electrical grid) or a conventional combustion engine car. By combining, for the first time, such an economic model with an energy model and a driving profile model, we find that the degree of electricity self-production used to charge the electric car might be very high, varying from 90% to 62%, depending on the annual distance traveled. The cost of such electricity varies widely and can be lower than the grid electricity price when fiscal incentives are available and for long annual distances traveled. A smart charging practice based on both economic factors and weather forecast can greatly enhance self-sufficiency, i.e., independence from the electrical grid. We estimate that, given the current Italian financial incentives, 10,000 km/year are needed to make the electric car cost-competitive with respect to an equivalent petrol-fueled one. Such threshold increases to more than 25,000 km/year if financial incentives are removed.