• Energy Research

While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use two exploratory simulation models to investigate the consequences of the combination of both complexity and uncertainty in relation to the global energy system and state stability. Our simulations show that shale developments could be seen as part of a long term hog-cycle, with a short term drop in oil prices if unconventional supply substitutes demand for oil. These lower oil prices may lead to instability in rentier states neighbouring the EU, especially when dependence on oil and gas income is high, youth bulges are present, or buffers like sovereign wealth funds are too limited to bridge the negative economic effects of temporary low oil prices.

AbstractMesopelagic fishes are a vital component of the biological carbon pump and are, to date, largely unexploited. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in harvesting the mesopelagic zone to produce fish feed for aquaculture. However, great uncertainties exist in how the mesopelagic zone interacts with the climate and food webs, presenting a dilemma for policy. Here, we investigate the consequences of potential policies relating to mesopelagic harvest quotas with a dynamic social-ecological modeling approach, combining system dynamics and global sensitivity analyses informed by participatory modeling. Our analyses reveal that, in simulations of mesopelagic fishing scenarios, uncertainties about mesopelagic fish population dynamics have the most pronounced influence on potential outcomes. The analysis also shows that prioritizing the development of the fishing industry over environmental protection would lead to a significantly higher social cost of climate change to society. Given the large uncertainties and the potential large impacts on oceanic carbon sequestration, a precautionary approach to developing mesopelagic fisheries is warranted.