• Energy Research

This experiment aims to increase understanding of the conditions under which combining textual and visual information on CO, storage fosters comprehension of the technology. Specifically, it is investigated if and how precision in indicating the depth of CO2 injection in either text, visual, or combinations thereof influence estimates of CO2 injection depth and how this in turn influences perceived safety of and attitude towards CO2 injection. We used a 3x3 experimental design with two factors, resulting in 9 conditions: Textual description of depth of injection (absent, ambiguous, precise) X visualization of depth (absent, ambiguous, precise). three texts were developed explaining the background and process of CCS. They were similar in every respect except for the accuracy of indication of depth: Absent ("underground"); Ambiguous ("deep underground"); Precise ("1,000 meters or deeper underground"). Three visual conditions were developed displaying the depth of CO2 injection. They were similar in every respect except for the accuracy of indication of depth: Absent (no visual displayed); Ambiguous (visual not to scale, injection obviously too shallow); Precise (visual to scale). Respondents were a representative sample of the adult UK population (n = 429). Each of them received one of the nine conditions, followed by a short questionnaire. Results indicate that estimates of depth are generally most accurate in text-only conditions and least accurate in visual-only conditions. Interestingly, the condition in which people are given no information about depth at all scores in-between with a mean estimate of 869 meters. Regarding textual depictions of CO2 injection depth, results indicate that the more precise indication of depth in the text the better respondents' estimate of depth, but this effect is only found for respondents who enjoy reading text. Regarding visual depictions of CO, injection, results indicate that the presence of a visual worsens respondents' estimate of depth, and the more precise indication of depth in the visual the worse respondents' estimate of depth. No relation was found between respondents' depth estimate of CO2 injection and their attitude towards CCS and risk perceptions of CCS. However, a more positive attitude towards CCS was related to lower perceived risk. Explanations and implications for communication are discussed in the paper. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.

Abstract Although prior studies provide some insight into the effects of communication factors such as source credibility and argument strength on public perceptions of CCS, comparisons and integration of insights from these studies is complicated by the multitude of different and interdependent factors that influence communication outcomes. Here we provide an overview of these factors, structured in terms of a communications matrix and drawing on experience with CCS projects and studies to date. Using the matrix we organize empirical findings of the effects of four major communication input factors (source, message, channel, receiver) on communication output factors such as, attention, interest, understanding, and attitudes. The resulting ‘map’ of opinion shapers may guide development of public communication, engagement, and participation in CCS projects. The key message to communicators is that by knowing how input factors influence output factors, it can be decided which features are useful to achieve an intended communication outcome. Obtaining knowledge of input–output interactions requires early public engagement to explore public needs and concerns. Critical to the communication outcome is the extent to which CCS communication is an informed, open and objective public discussion process in which different views on the technology are acknowledged.

Abstract China has been building at least 50 gigawatt (GW) of new coal-fired power plants every year since 2004. In the absence of CO 2 capture ready (CCR) designs, a large fraction of new coal power plants built in the next decade could face ‘carbon lock-in’. Building on the existing engineering and economic literature on CO 2 capture ready, the aim of this study is to understand the opportunities and challenges in implementing CCR in China. In early 2010, opinion-leaders perceptions towards implementing CCR in Guangdong with two empirical phases are presented: an online consultation of 31 respondents (out of a sample of 82), three face-to-face focus group discussions including 16 officials from five power plants and two oil companies in the Guangdong province. A majority of respondents in the online survey were engineers. The survey results are compared with an earlier study of stakeholders’ views on demonstrating CCS in China, conducted in April 2009 as part of the EU–UK–China Near Zero Emissions Coal initiative (NZEC) project.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reaffirmed the importance of scaling up renewable energy to decarbonise Europe’s economy while rapidly reducing its exposure to foreign fossil fuel suppliers. Therefore, the question of sources of flexibility to support a fully decarbonised European energy system is becoming even more critical in light of a renewable-dominated energy system. We developed and used a Pan-European energy system model to systematically assess and quantify sources of flexibility to meet deep decarbonisation targets. The electricity supply sector and electricity-based end-use technologies are crucial in achieving deep decarbonisation. Other low-carbon energy sources like biomethane, hydrogen, synthetic e-fuels, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage will also play a role. To support a fully decarbonised European energy system by 2050, both temporal and spatial flexibility will be needed. Spatial flexibility, achieved through investments in national electricity networks and cross-border interconnections, is crucial to support the aggressive roll-out of variable renewable energy sources. Cross-border trade in electricity is expected to increase, and in deep decarbonisation scenarios, the electricity transmission capacity will be larger than that of natural gas. Hydrogen storage and green hydrogen production will play a key role in providing traditional inter-seasonal flexibility, and intraday flexibility will be provided by a combination of electrical energy storage, hydrogen-based storage solutions (e.g., liquid H2 and pressurised storage), and hybrid heat pumps. Hydrogen networks and storage will become more critical as we move towards the highest decarbonisation scenario. Still, the need for natural gas networks and storage will decrease substantially.

AbstractWe consider the limit s to traditional finance in evaluating power projects and investigate the role biases and heuristics used by individuals and institutions play in investment decisions, particularly those affecting less familiar, lower-carbon electricity generation.Traditional finance relies on the principles and results of modern portfolio theory, such as the efficient market hypothesis, which tends to describe investment results in terms of mean percentage return, statistical risk (e.g. standard deviation), and reward-torisk ratios. For power projects, firms consider various financial criteria for comparing projects opportunities with unequal lifetimes. To forecast financial criteria for project opportunities, firms will n ormally project the cash flow profile, often using Monte Carlo simulations given the volatility of some point estimations. In addition, real options analysis can be integrated if the relevant option (abandonment, expansion, flexibility) value may be significant. Many potential risks already incorporat ed in the traditional finance prospective include: business and commercial risk, country (or political risk), exchange rate and interest rate risk, inflation and liquidity risk.Rather than assuming all investors are rational and all relevant facts will be interpreted correctly, institutional behavioral finance assumes firms make decisions according to their own objectives and constraints.Project decisions are affected by both the institutional framework and individual behavior. Behavioral characteristi cs can affect decision-making by contributing to biased forecasts, especially in those institutions or projects for which decision-making power is highly concentrated. Specific biases affecting power projects include: representativeness, overconfidence, anchoring-and-adjustment, aversion to ambiguity, endorsement effect, and loss aversion. Project decision -makers may not fully incorporate financial projections, as rather than researching or trusting that information they are forming own rules developed through experiments, making investment decision that is most prominent, and relying on heuristics. We analyze the risks and opportunities for shareholders, creditors, and equipment vendors in moving from the traditional to the behavioral model, with a speci al emphasis on ‘newer’ investment decisions found in lower-carbon generation such as renewable or advanced coal and CCS technologies.

AbstractACCSEPT was a two-year research project (2005–2007) funded under the 6th research framework programme of the European Commission. The project leader was Det Norske Veritas (DNV), and the partners were Baker and McKenzie, the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and Judge Business School of the University of Cambridge.There were three main focuses of the project: a Europe-wide survey of stakeholders and their opinions on CCS; stakeholder consultation through two workshops; and research into the economics, regulation, legal and social aspects of CCS. The project website is www.accsept.org, where all the outputs and related material can be found.This paper summarizes the conclusions of the work.

AbstractAchieving low-carbon development of the cement industry in the developing countries is fundamental to global emissions abatement, considering the local construction industry’s rapid growth. However, there is currently a lack of systematic and accurate accounting and projection of cement emissions in developing countries, which are characterized with lower basic economic country condition. Here, we provide bottom-up quantifications of emissions from global cement production and reveal a regional shift in the main contributors to global cement CO2 emissions. The study further explores cement emissions over 2020-2050 that correspond to different housing and infrastructure conditions and emissions mitigation options for all developing countries except China. We find that cement emissions in developing countries except China will reach 1.4-3.8 Gt in 2050 (depending on different industrialization trajectories), compared to their annual emissions of 0.7 Gt in 2018. The optimal combination of low-carbon measures could contribute to reducing annual emissions by around 65% in 2050 and cumulative emissions by around 48% over 2020-2050. The efficient technological paths towards a low carbon future of cement industry vary among the countries and infrastructure scenarios. Our results are essential to understanding future emissions patterns of the cement industry in the developing countries and can inform policies in the cement sector that contribute to meeting the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement.

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is considered by many to be an essential route to meet climate mitigation targets in the power and industrial sectors. Deploying CCS technologies globally will first require a portfolio of large-scale demonstration projects. These first projects should assist learning by diversity, learning by replication, de-risking the technologies and developing viable business models. From 2005 to 2009, optimism about the pace of CCS rollout led to mutually independent efforts in the European Union, North America and Australia to assemble portfolios of projects. Since 2009, only a few of these many project proposals remain viable, but the initial rationales for demonstration have not been revisited in the face of changing circumstances. Here I argue that learning is now both more difficult and more important given the slow pace of deployment. Developing a more coordinated global portfolio will facilitate learning across projects and may determine whether CCS ever emerges from the demonstration phase. Carbon capture and storage is considered an important element to meet our climate mitigation targets. This Perspective explores the history of the first wave of projects and what challenges must be faced if widespread deployment is to be successful.