• Energy Research

In order to realistically fulfil global and national climate protection targets, all potential measures have to be made use of to a maximum extent. Because it is readily available, biomass energy has been playing a key practical role for decades, supported by the traditional assumption of its carbon neutrality: under sustainable conditions, carbon dioxide emitted during combustion is held to be equal to its absorption during plant growth. In order to clarify conditions of carbon (C) neutrality, it is therefore necessary to model the annual natural C cycle on the entire planet and to include changes caused by a variety of growth strategies for biomass fuels. The “Combined Energy and Biosphere Model” CEBM calculates the cycle of plant growth, decay, biomass fuel production and its combustion on 2433 grid elements worldwide. CEBM results suggest that over many decades, the C pools of litter and especially soil organic carbon (i.e., humus layer) deplete considerably as a consequence of the interrupted natural carbon cycle. Overall, based on this finding, the earlier assumption of “carbon-neutral biomass fuels” is disapproved of in a long-term evaluation and—as a coarse rule of thumb—might be reduced to “half as carbon neutral as previously assumed” (when compared to a current fuel mix). On top of this principal effect, it is well known that life-cycle emissions, indirect or secondary emissions such as energy input related to production, transport and conversion into fuels will still add to this already principally highly incomplete carbon neutrality of biomass.

In order to identify the most crucial and promising strategies to enhance public information for better Renewable Energy Sources (RES) implementation in an Eastern European country (here: Ukraine),...

Purpose – The overall purpose of this paper is to detect spatial, temporal, sectoral, thematic and other patterns or transitions in techno-socio-economic evolution that are likely to co-determine future development and allow the steering of it. The development of a “Global Change Data Base” (GCDB) promises a graphically and geographically oriented tool for the representation of correlations for global long-term data series. Design/methodology/approach – A literature analysis supports the interpretation of such “pattern recognitions”, especially the literature in the areas of economic growth, systems analysis, energy economics, social indicators and quality of life. Preconditions for economic growth are empirically analysed on a sectoral level along with prevailing structural shifts in the use of energy sources. Findings – The main outcome is a distillate of a few formative “paths of development”, according to a synthesis of to-date growth theories. These lines might influence development in future decades and co-determine the degree to which sustainability targets are met. Debates and discussion procedures make use of such findings and outline modes of actions. Practical implications – Developmental university curricula such as “Global Studies”, democratisation endeavours based on analyses of economic performance of (partly) democratic systems or global governance of science could profit from a consensus on global trends patterns, similar to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change endeavour at the United Nations level. Social implications – Such heuristic methods could suitably mediate (in “multicultural” manner) between contradictory paradigms of global economic development that are mainly ideology-driven and hamper global society’s joint action. Originality/value – In short, this is an empirical work on pattern recognition in global evolution using aggregated spatially and temporally enabled data. It refers to the historic example of Kon-Tiki which undertook a surprisingly long journey based on precise knowledge of ocean currents and wind without applying own force.