• Energy Research

Models reveal the high carbon mitigation potential of tropical forest regeneration.

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061–2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region’s (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species’ vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58–67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species’ relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Abstract Firewood is the main source of energy in rural communities of emerging economies. Rural people develop different strategies to select and use the available species. Analysis of the firewood consumption and its relation to the wood-energetic properties was performed in four rural villages in the El Ocote Biosphere Reserve. The relationship between the preferential use of species for firewood and wood properties (moisture, ash, volatile content and specific wood density) of 39 species was analyzed using a combination of interviews and laboratory analysis. Fuel value index (FVI) was used to rank species and compare them with a preference index obtained by 76 interviews. People recognized seven characteristics that define the choice of a species for firewood (the kind of flame, the length of the flame, the amount and duration of coal, the type of smoke produced, the ease of ignition, the flavor given to food, and the quantity of ash left). Preference criteria do not match with the FVI. Six of the preferred species have low FVI values ( 300). We conclude that the FVI is not related to the preference of the species used by people within the reserve. Availability, proximity to home and feasibility may influence the choice of species used for firewood.