• Energy Research
• 2016-2025close

Sustainable development requires sustainable energy sources. Nuclear energy is proposed, but it is perceived as problematic in terms of proliferation, waste, safety and costs. In this paper, these issues are analyzed, and it is demonstrated that this perception is not rooted in the reality of modern nuclear technologies. In fact, the paper concludes that Thorium-based Molten Salt Reactors (TMSR) technology is clean, safe, proliferation resistant and cost effective, and even better than traditional nuclear technologies. Given that thorium is a plentiful resource, this technology can propel humanity forward for the next 1000 years or more. What is lacking is an understanding of TMSR by those who allocate funding for research. Hence, this paper is also a call for action.

Abstract Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all is one of the Sustainable Development Goals. Some countries have therefore invested significantly in wind energy, but emissions, which is a common measure for sustainability in this context, have not fallen significantly. Reductions between 20% and 40% are typical. We therefore test the hypothesis that wind energy reduces emissions compared to using gas turbines when life-cycle emissions are included. The Irish grid is studied due to its record-high wind penetration. The model is based on high resolution grid data covering four years and input from 828 Life-Cycle Assessment cases to allow detailed analysis of demand, supply, life-cycle emissions and their changes due to the increased ramping of gas turbines and increased grid reserves required to maintain grid reliability when wind is deployed. Indirect effects are included to some extent. The model is sampled 10,000 times using Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that emissions are reduced by 10–20%, which supports the hypothesis. However, with an average wind penetration of 34% in 2019, reaching many times the 65% limit for non-synchronous generation set by the system operator to maintain grid reliability, such modest reductions logically imply that achieving an affordable, low-carbon grid using wind together with fossil energy balancing is infeasible with today’s technology, emissions and costs. This key finding is transferable to other grids where wind has large penetration and requires fossil energy balancing. Thus, wind energy is not sustainable when balanced by fossil fuel generators.

As windfarms spread, so have the discussions concerning their economics. Some argue from a basic definition of Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), that wind energy is more cost effective than other energy sources. The opponents argue that the LCOE must be estimated taking a systemic view including opportunity costs, which changes the picture. The opportunity costs are assessed in this paper using a novel approach based on a simulation model to estimate the number of windfarms that will achieve a certain nameplate output. Then, this is combined with the LCOE of dispatchable energy sources to estimate the opportunity cost. A Monte Carlo simulation is run to estimate the effects of uncertainty and variations. The results are clear – windfarms are not cost effective when a certain output must be guaranteed as major opportunity costs are introduced. However, as a supplementary source of energy in specific situations, windfarms can be useful.

The Levelised Cost of Energy is frequently used for assessing the economic competitiveness across different technologies. Unfortunately, there are caveats and a significant problem is that opportunity costs are ignored. This paper therefore addresses how to calculate the Levelised Cost of Energy for Solar Photovoltaics more correctly than today starting from the premise that an energy source has to guarantee an output at a system level. Thus, energy storage systems are required. Furthermore, uncertainty must be handled, and Monte Carlo methods are used here. The lowest Levelised Cost of Energy occurs when the system is designed for continuous operation, as opposed to peak shaving, with 80% of its solution space found between 203 USD/MWh to 252 USD/MWh and an expected value of 226 USD/MWh. This is almost 3 times higher than a narrowly defined Levelised Cost of Energy, which ignores opportunity costs. Hence, it is clear that Solar Photovoltaics can guarantee output within economically feasible limits, albeit currently expensive.

It is assumed that technological progress plays a vital role in energy efficiency improvements when the effects of industrial restructuring, infrastructure, environmental challenges, and economic shocks seem more dubious. However, a limited number of studies have been conducted to examine the impact of technological innovation on countries’ energy efficiency levels. This study aims to explore the relationship between energy efficiency, technological innovation, and economic growth in 30 European countries by utilizing data from 2012 to 2020. To this end, a two-stage analysis is carried out. The first step involves estimating the total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) by the countries to illustrate the effects of energy parameters on economic growth and the environment, and technological innovation (TI) to estimate the innovation capability of each country by using data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. The second step includes a panel regression model to explore how technological innovation affects energy efficiency, considering the degree of government intervention, industrial structure, infrastructure, and economic openness.The results indicate that the bottom-15 countries, whose TFEE scores were the lowest, are mainly countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Regarding the countries’ technological capability, the results were similar, but the score was lower than the TFEE. Moreover, the regression analysis shows that a one percent increase in innovation activity contributes to an increase in energy efficiency by 0.27 percent. Hence, it confirms the notion of a positive impact of new technology on energy efficiency. AcknowledgmentsThe study is supported by the grant from the Research Based Innovation “SFI Marine Operation in Virtual Environment (SFI-MOVE)” (Project No. 237929) in Norway.