• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close

The continuous depletion of nonrenewable natural resources and climate change may lead to a future characterized by a higher frequency of extreme natural events (i.e., flooding, hurricanes, and droughts) and resource supply shocks (i.e., oil price shock). Sub-Saharan African countries will be particularly exposed to these types of shock due to their socioeconomic conditions and geographical conformation. This study investigates the impact of two contemporaneous covariant sudden shocks (i.e., drought and price oil shock) and the possible coping strategies through a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Kenya. The results suggest that a mitigation policy as public transfers is an effective mitigation tool for drought effects, improving welfare and GDP in the short run. However, adopting public transfers during an oil crisis may have regressive effects on population income and welfare. Because the mitigation effectiveness is strongly affected by the complex interaction of combined shocks, the public authorities should pay attention to policy implementation. These findings call for a new scheme of transfer allocation where rural and low-income household quantiles should receive more attention by postdrought mitigation policy, being that they are more vulnerable to external shocks.

The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential impacts of different COVID-19 scenarios on the Italian energy sector through 2030, with a specific focus on transport and industry. The analysis takes a multi-disciplinary approach to properly consider the complex interactions of sectors across Italy. This approach includes the assessment of economic conditions using macroeconomic and input-output models, modelling the evolution of the energy system using an energy and transport model, and forecasting the reaction of travel demand and modal choice using econometric models and expert interviews. Results show that the effect of COVID-19 pandemic may lead to mid-term effects on energy consumption. The medium scenario, which assumes a stop of the emergency by the end of 2021, shows that energy-related emissions remain 10% lower than the baseline in the industry sector and 6% lower in the transport sector by 2030, when compared with a pre-COVID trend. Policy recommendations to support a green recovery are discussed in light of the results.