• Energy Research

Low emission and green hydrogen as a carbon-free energy carrier has attracted worldwide attention in decarbonizing the energy system and meeting the Paris agreement target of limiting warming to 2 °C or below. This study investigates the contribution of different hydrogen pathways to the energy transition and sheds light on adopting different decarbonization scenarios for Quebec, Canada, while including biogenic emissions from forest-based biomass consumption. We assess various alternative policy scenarios using a TIMES model for North America (NATEM), a bottom-up techno-economic approach. This study examines the role of various hydrogen pathways in Quebec's energy transition by considering different net-zero policy scenarios and an additional set of “green” scenarios, which prohibit the use of fossil fuel-based hydrogen. The results show that varying the penetration of hydrogen provides a key trade-off between reliance on direct air capture, reliance on carbon storage, reliance on wind and solar buildout, the inter-sector allocation of residual emissions, and the overall cost of achieving emission targets. In particular, the use of hydrogen in the industrial sector, a sector known to be difficult to decarbonize, reduces industrial emissions and reliance on direct air capture (DAC). Clustering industrial plants to use captured CO2 as a feedstock for synthetic fuel production may not reduce industrial GHG emissions by 2050, but it offers the opportunity to use captured CO2 instead of sequestering it in deep saline aquifers. Even though increasing industrial green hydrogen penetration increases marginal GHG abatement costs in the green net-zero scenario by 2050, it further minimizes industrial GHG emissions and the need for DAC among all net-zero scenarios by 2050. Hydrogen plays a significant role in achieving ambitious net-zero emission target, especially where electrification is not feasible, or electricitystorage is required.

Abstract This paper proposes energy scenarios to 2050 for the Province of Quebec under GHG emission reduction constraints with and without new hydrocarbon exploitation. The main objective is to measure the impact of new hydrocarbon projects on achieving stringent GHG reduction objectives (upto −80%). Our analysis relies on the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM), which belongs to the MARKAL/TIMES family of models supported by the International Energy Agency. In terms of hydrocarbon exploitation, we consider a recent project proposed by the oil industry for exploiting deposits on Anticosti Island. In our GHG reduction scenarios, the results indicate that the hydrocarbons of Anticosti Island would be exported and thus have virtually no effect on the energy consumption mix in Quebec. This mix would be significantly transformed by the 2050 horizon, through numerous energy efficiency measures yielding reductions in final energy consumption, a massive electrification of end-use sectors, and an increased reliance on bioenergy. However, the 2050 GHG emission levels would increase by nearly 7% in the reference (baseline) case. Greater total GHG reductions would thus be required from the baseline at a significantly higher marginal cost.

Energy and the environment are closely interconnected. In particular, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are major contributors to climate change. To analyze options within the energy sector to curb greenhouse gas emissions, or to study alternative climate strategies such as adaptation and geoengineering measures, policy-makers can rely on mathematical decision support models, in particular E3 (economy/energy/environment) models and integrated assessment models (IAMs). This paper reviews some of my recent contributions to climate policy design using different types of E3 models and IAMs.

More than half of the world’s population live in cities, and by 2050, it is expected that this proportion will reach almost 68%. These densely populated cities consume more than 75% of the world’s primary energy and are responsible for the emission of around 70% of anthropogenic carbon. Providing sustainable energy for the growing demand in cities requires multifaceted planning approach. In this study, we modeled the energy system of the Greater Montreal region to evaluate the impact of different environmental mitigation policies on the energy system of this region over a long-term period (2020–2050). In doing so, we have used the open-source optimization-based model called the Energy–Technology–Environment Model (ETEM). The ETEM is a long-term bottom–up energy model that provides insight into the best options for cities to procure energy, and satisfies useful demands while reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Results show that, under a deep decarbonization scenario, the transportation, commercial, and residential sectors will contribute to emission reduction by 6.9, 1.6, and 1 million ton CO2-eq in 2050, respectively, compared with their 2020 levels. This is mainly achieved by (i) replacing fossil fuel cars with electric-based vehicles in private and public transportation sectors; (ii) replacing fossil fuel furnaces with electric heat pumps to satisfy heating demand in buildings; and (iii) improving the efficiency of buildings by isolating walls and roofs.

Global pathways limiting warming to 2 °C or below require deep carbon dioxide removal through a large-scale transformation of the land surface, an increase in forest cover, and the deployment of negative emission technologies (NETs). Government initiatives endorse bioenergy as an alternative, carbon-neutral energy source for fossil fuels. However, this carbon neutral assumption is increasingly being questioned, with several studies indicating that it may result in accounting errors and biased decision-making. To address this growing issue, we use a carbon budget model combined with an energy system model. We show that including forest sequestration in the energy system model alleviates the decarbonization effort. We discuss how a forest management strategy with a high sequestration capacity reduces the need for expensive negative emission technologies. This study indicates the necessity of establishing the most promising forest management strategy before investing in bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Finally, we describe how a carbon neutrality assumption may lead to biased decision-making because it allows the model to use more biomass without being constrained by biogenic CO2 emissions. The risk of biased decision-making is higher for regions that have lower forest coverage, since available forest sequestration cannot sink biogenic emissions in the short term, and importing bioenergy could worsen the situation.

In this paper, we study how uncertainties weighing on the climate system impact the optimal technological pathways the world energy system should take to comply with stringent mitigation objectives. We use the TIAM-World model that relies on the TIMES modelling approach. Its climate module is inspired by the DICE model. Using robust optimization techniques, we assess the impact of the climate system parameter uncertainty on energy transition pathways under various climate constraints. Unlike other studies we consider all the climate system parameters which is of primary importance since: (i) parameters and outcomes of climate models are all inherently uncertain (parametric uncertainty); and (ii) the simplified models at stake summarize phenomena that are by nature complex and non-linear in a few, sometimes linear, equations so that structural uncertainty is also a major issue. The use of robust optimization allows us to identify economic energy transition pathways under climate constraints for which the outcome scenarios remain relevant for any realization of the climate parameters. In this sense, transition pathways are made robust. We find that the abatement strategies are quite different between the two temperature targets. The most stringent one is reached by investing massively in carbon removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) which have yields much lower than traditional fossil fuelled technologies.

Abstract The main objective of this paper is to explore deep decarbonization pathways for the Canadian energy sector that would allow Canada to participate in global mitigation efforts to keep global mean surface temperatures from increasing by more than 2 °C by 2100. Our approach consists in deriving minimum cost solutions for achieving progressive emission reductions up to 2050 using the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM), a detailed multi-regional and integrated optimization energy model. With this model, we analyze a baseline and two 60% reduction scenarios of combustion related emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels, with different assumptions regarding projected demands for energy services and availability of technology options for carbon mitigation. The first reduction scenario includes only well-known technologies while the second one considers additional disruptive technologies, which are known but are not fully developed commercially. Results show that three fundamental transformations need to occur simultaneously in order to achieve ambitious GHG emission reduction targets: electrification of end-use sectors, decarbonization of electricity generating supply, and efficiency improvements. In particular, our results show that electricity represents between 52% and 57% of final energy consumption by 2050, electricity generating supply achieves nearly complete decarbonization by 2025 and final energy consumption decreases by 20% relative to the baseline by 2050.