• Energy Research

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risks on price exuberance within the European natural gas market. The analysis identifies several instances of price exuberance and demonstrates that increased geopolitical risk in Ukraine and the UK significantly heightens price exuberance, whereas in Russia, it mitigates its occurrence. Although geopolitical risks could significantly influence price exuberance in the European natural gas market, the effect differs across countries.

AbstractAfrica’s pursuit of inclusive and sustainable economic growth is impeded by many challenges, including climate change, whose effect is most apparent in the continent’s tropical regions. To this end, this study investigates the impact of climate change on achieving pro-poor economic growth in Africa. Predicated on poverty-inequality-climate analysis, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator is used to analyse data from 1996 to 2020 covering 51 African countries. The results reveal that climate change significantly impedes inclusive growth. Furthermore, evidence of a long-lasting negative effect of climate change on inclusive growth, which could be attributed to a lack of coping mechanisms among the poor and vulnerable groups, is found. Finally, the findings show a marginal impact of institutional quality and government spending on inclusive growth in the face of climate change. The study recommends more climate mitigation efforts and enhanced adaptation mechanisms, especially for the poor, as they are most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

Recently, the inflationary impacts of climate change shocks have emerged among key constraints to price and financial stability. In line with this development, some Central banks are incorporating climate change risks in their surveillance activities. Thus, this study examines the asymmetric inflationary impact of climate change shocks on food and general consumer prices in Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa. The study employs a panel quantile via the moment’s method and a wavelet coherency analysis for monthly from 2000M01 to 2023M12. The empirical results reveal that, first, there is a dynamic interconnectedness between climate change shocks and inflation. Secondly, the results show that climate change shocks have an inflationary impact on food and general consumer prices. However, the magnitude and direction of the impact depend on the prevailing inflationary regime. Finally, the analysis shows that climate change shocks raise inflation uncertainty. Collectively, these findings imply that climate change shocks are key sources of inflationary pressures and uncertainty, posing significant challenges to central banks’ inflation management. One implication of these findings is that central banks in these countries will likely face extreme difficulty stabilising inflation since monetary policy instruments are mainly demand management, and thus may be ineffective in dealing with climate change shocks. In line with the findings, the study recommends that these countries should enhance their inflation surveillance and monetary policy strategies but considering the potential climate change risks.

PurposeThe recent Russia–Ukraine conflict highlights the geopolitical importance of natural gas, especially in Europe. In this light, this study examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the spread of price bubbles from European natural gas to international energy prices.Design/methodology/approachThe Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test is employed to detect the occurrence of price bubble episodes while the Dynamic Logit Model is used to examine price bubble contagion between the two markets. Further, a tri-variate VAR model is used to examine the determinants of the price bubble.FindingsThe findings reveal multiple bubble episodes in both European natural gas and international energy prices. Further, evidence of bilateral contagion between European natural gas and the international energy market is found. In addition, the Russia–Ukraine conflict triggers price bubble episodes in both markets. Finally, a counterfactual analysis suggests that the conflict increases the bubble contagion from the European natural gas market to the international energy market by about 40%. These findings imply that the Russia–Ukraine conflict is a significant driver of high upside risks to bubble occurrence and subsequent contagion to both European natural gas and international energy prices.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this study contributes new empirical evidence that the Russian–Ukrainian conflict significantly impacts the spread of price bubbles from the European natural gas market to international energy markets.

AbstractThe interaction of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks with energy price fluctuations has remained a critical global issue. This interaction can impact several regions' macroeconomic performance and welfare by making fundamental energy price forecasting more difficult, which may lead to exuberant behaviour. To help producers, consumers, and regulators make informed decisions in the face of volatile and uncertain energy markets, it is critical to highlight how these uncertainties influence price exuberance. In this light, this study examines the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on international energy price exuberance using monthly data from January 1990 to October 2022. The study employs supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) and generalised augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) tests to identify energy price exuberance. Firstly, consistent with exuberant behaviour, the tests identify seven episodes of explosive behaviour in the international energy prices within the sample. Secondly, this study applies the Logit model to estimate the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on price exuberance. The estimates suggest that the heightening of global uncertainty may deflate the price exuberance. This study also observes that adverse geopolitical risks (threats and acts) in the world and Ukraine amplify the likelihood of price exuberance in the market. However, adverse geopolitical risk (GPR) in Russia negatively impacted the formation of price exuberance. This finding implies that policymakers can use global uncertainty and geopolitical risks as early warning indicators of probable price exuberance in the international energy market. The findings also indicate the need for a buffer system and safe passage for the flow of energy supply in a geopolitical conflict or a major global event. The study further shows the need for a coordinated effort in innovation, research, and development to enhance energy efficiency and minimise reliance on fossil fuels, which these uncertainties may not significantly influence.

AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and output growth among African OPEC countries (Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon) using the panel autoregressive distributed lag model (PARDL) estimated by means of mean group (MG) and pooled mean group (PMG) for the period 1970–2016. The paper estimated three panel models comprising the components of greenhouse gasses which includes nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane and examined their relationship with economic growth and energy consumption. The findings of the study showed evidence of a positive impact of economic growth on both CO2 and methane emissions in the long run. Its impact on nitrous oxide emissions although positive was found to be statistically insignificant. Energy consumption was also found to produce an insignificant positive impact on CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in the long run. In the short run, economic growth exerts a significant positive effect on methane emissions; however, its effect on CO2 and nitrous oxide emissions although positive was found to be statistically insignificant. Energy consumption produces an insignificant impact on all components of greenhouse gasses in the short run. In addition, our empirical results showed the presence of a non-linear relationship between methane emissions and economic growth, confirming the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) only in the case of methane emissions model.