• Energy Research

AbstractThe sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8–9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect’s climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system’s failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8–9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

AbstractClimate change exposes ecosystems to strong and rapid changes in their environmental boundary conditions mainly due to the altered temperature and precipitation patterns. It is still poorly understood how fast interlinked ecosystem processes respond to altered environmental conditions, if these responses occur gradually or suddenly when thresholds are exceeded, and if the patterns of the responses will reach a stable state. We conducted an irrigation experiment in the Pfynwald, Switzerland from 2003–2018. A naturally dry Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest was irrigated with amounts that doubled natural precipitation, thus releasing the forest stand from water limitation. The aim of this study was to provide a quantitative understanding on how different traits and functions of individual trees and the whole ecosystem responded to increased water availability, and how the patterns and magnitudes of these responses developed over time. We found that the response magnitude, the temporal trajectory of responses, and the length of initial lag period prior to significant response largely varied across traits. We detected rapid and stronger responses from aboveground tree traits (e.g., tree‐ring width, needle length, and crown transparency) compared to belowground tree traits (e.g., fine‐root biomass). The altered aboveground traits during the initial years of irrigation increased the water demand and trees adjusted by increasing root biomass during the later years of irrigation, resulting in an increased survival rate of Scots pine trees in irrigated plots. The irrigation also stimulated ecosystem‐level foliar decomposition rate, fungal fruit body biomass, and regeneration abundances of broadleaved tree species. However, irrigation did not promote the regeneration of Scots pine trees, which are reported to be vulnerable to extreme droughts. Our results provide extensive evidence that tree‐ and ecosystem‐level responses were pervasive across a number of traits on long‐term temporal scales. However, after reaching a peak, the magnitude of these responses either decreased or reached a new stable state, providing important insights into how resource alterations could change the system functioning and its boundary conditions.

AbstractThe European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time‐varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre‐shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long‐term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production protection against rockfall and avalanches and carbon storage.