• Energy Research

Abstract Accessible, reliable, and diverse sources of climate information are needed to inform climate change adaptation at all levels of society, particularly for vulnerable sectors, such as smallholder farming. Globally, many smallholder farmers use Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) to forecast weather and climate; however, less is known about how the use of these forecasts connects to decisions and actions for reducing climate risks. We examined the role of IK and LK in seasonal forecasting and the broader climate adaptation decision-making of smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe. The data were collected from a sample of 100 smallholder farmers. Seventy-three of the 100 interviewed farmers used IK and LK weather and climate forecasts, and 32% relied solely on IK and LK forecasts for climate adaptation decision-making. Observations of cuckoo birds, leaf-sprouting of Mopane trees, high summer temperatures, and Nimbus clouds are the main indicators used for IK and LK forecasts. The use of IK and LK climate forecasts was significantly positively associated with increasing farmer age and farmland size. Farmers using IK and LK forecasts implemented, on average, triple the number of adaptation measures compared with farmers not using IK and LK. These findings demonstrate the widespread reliance of farmers on IK and LK for seasonal forecasts, and the strong positive link between the use of IK and LK and the implementation of climate adaptation actions. This positive association between IK and LK usage and the implementation of adaptation actions may be widespread in smallholder farming communities throughout Africa and globally. Recognition and inclusion of IK and LK in climate services is important to ensure their continued potential for enhancing climate change adaptation.

Abstract Accessible, reliable, and diverse sources of climate information are needed to inform climate change adaptation at all levels of society, particularly for vulnerable sectors, such as smallholder farming. Globally, many smallholder farmers use Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) to forecast weather and climate; however, less is known about how the use of these forecasts connects to decisions and actions for reducing climate risks. We examined the role of IK and LK in seasonal forecasting and the broader climate adaptation decision-making of smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe. The data were collected from a sample of 100 smallholder farmers. Seventy-three of the 100 interviewed farmers used IK and LK weather and climate forecasts, and 32% relied solely on IK and LK forecasts for climate adaptation decision-making. Observations of cuckoo birds, leaf-sprouting of Mopane trees, high summer temperatures, and Nimbus clouds are the main indicators used for IK and LK forecasts. The use of IK and LK climate forecasts was significantly positively associated with increasing farmer age and farmland size. Farmers using IK and LK forecasts implemented, on average, triple the number of adaptation measures compared with farmers not using IK and LK. These findings demonstrate the widespread reliance of farmers on IK and LK for seasonal forecasts, and the strong positive link between the use of IK and LK and the implementation of climate adaptation actions. This positive association between IK and LK usage and the implementation of adaptation actions may be widespread in smallholder farming communities throughout Africa and globally. Recognition and inclusion of IK and LK in climate services is important to ensure their continued potential for enhancing climate change adaptation.

Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of 536 responses.

Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of 536 responses.

SummaryMotivationCommunities across the global south use their rich indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) to predict weather events and climate hazards. ILK may assist efforts to address climate change challenges in Africa and make subsequent decisions regarding climate adaptation.PurposeThe article documents evidence of the ILK's potential in reducing vulnerability to climate change and/or improving the resilience of communities. The study also reflects on major barriers that hinder the improved mainstreaming of ILK into adaptation strategies.Methods and approachThe present study uses two main methods: a literature review and a presentation of case studies from a sample of African countries where ILK informs adaptation options, including indigenous land‐tenure practices and weather prediction. The selected case studies highlight the historical legacy of ILK and its effectiveness in reducing vulnerability and the impacts of climate change.FindingsThe results indicate that, despite being acknowledged as a valuable resource for climate adaptation, current national adaptation policies on the African continent still show serious gaps in effectively integrating ILK systems within the legal frameworks to reduce vulnerability.Policy implicationsILK should be better integrated with modern climate change adaptation strategies to anticipate more effective responses. Both rural communities and relevant government agencies should complement the use of ILK with climate change strategies, so as to maximize its contribution to the effective implementation of climate change policies.