• Energy Research

Climatic niche models based on native-range climatic data accurately predict invasive-range distributions in the majority of species. However, these models often do not account for ecological and evolutionary processes, which limit the ability to predict future range expansion. This might be particularly problematic in the case of invaders that occupy environments that would be considered marginal relative to the climatic niche in the native range of the species. Here, we assess the potential for future range expansion in the shrub Chromolaena odorata that is currently invading mesic savannas (>650 mm MAP) in South Africa that are colder and drier than most habitats in its native range. In a greenhouse experiment we tested whether its current distribution in South Africa can be explained by increased competitive ability and/or differentiation in drought tolerance relative to the native population. We compared aboveground biomass, biomass allocation, water use efficiency and relative yields of native and invasive C. odorata and the resident grass Panicum maximum in wet and dry conditions. Surprisingly, we found little differentiation between ranges. Invasive C. odorata showed no increased competitive ability or superior drought tolerance compared to native C. odorata. Moreover we found that P. maximum was a better competitor than either native or invasive C. odorata. These results imply that C. odorata is unlikely to expand its future range towards more extreme, drier, habitats beyond the limits of its current climatic niche and that the species' invasiveness most likely depends on superior light interception when temporarily released from competition by disturbance. Our study highlights the fact that species can successfully invade habitats that are at the extreme end of their ranges and thereby contributes towards a better understanding of range expansion during species invasions.

Climate change is one of the main challenges facing humanity in the coming century. To understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, we urgently require a better understanding of plant responses to climate change. To address this knowledge gap we established a full-factorial warming experiment using open-top chambers (OTCs) inside a long-term fire-manipulation experiment in Afromontane fire-climax grasslands. Fire is an essential ecosystem driver in these grasslands, but has rarely been included in experimental climate change research. To assess growth responses to elevated temperatures and fire frequency, we measured four functional traits: vegetative height, leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf dry matter content (LDMC). Grasses responded to fire exclusion with increased height, and lower LA, SLA, and LDMC. Grasses responded to warming with lower height and LA, and higher LDMC, suggesting that plant growth was negatively affected by warming. This response was mostly attributed to intra-specific trait variability, highlighting an important role for trait plasticity in community-level processes to mediate the response of montane grassland communities to elevated temperatures and associated drought effects. These results are a first step towards establishing a more mechanistic basis for understanding future climatic changes in Afromontane grasslands.

Climate change is leading to a species redistributions. In the tundra biome, many shrub species are expanding into new areas, a process known as shrubification. However, not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species (those projected to expand and contract their ranges, and/or those that have increased or decreased in cover over time), and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether current range sizes are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation by combining 17,921 trait records and distribution data from 62 shrub species across three continents (>30 degrees north). In addition, we determine which traits are associated with species projected by species distribution models to expand or contract their ranges under climate change, and species that have undergone past cover changes over time. Winner and loser shrub species identified from projected range shifts generally differed from those identified from observed past cover change. We found that greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area were related to larger projected range shifts. Projected winner species generally had greater seed mass values than ‘no change’ and loser species. However, contrary to our expectations, traits’ values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, and depended upon the future climate scenarios considered in range projections. There were no clear relationships either between cover change over time and trait values or variation. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance changes and projected range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition or variation with future warming, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces based on commonly measured traits. Future research could investigate other morpho-physiological traits underpinning climatic preferences, which might better predict future range and abundance changes.

AbstractRangelands face threats from climate and land-use change, including inappropriate climate change mitigation initiatives such as tree planting in grassy ecosystems. The marginalization and impoverishment of rangeland communities and their indigenous knowledge systems, and the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, are additional major challenges. To address these issues, we propose the wilder rangelands integrated framework, co-developed by South African and European scientists from diverse disciplines, as an opportunity to address the climate, livelihood, and biodiversity challenges in the world’s rangelands. More specifically, we present a Theory of Change to guide the design, monitoring, and evaluation of wilder rangelands. Through this, we aim to promote rangeland restoration, where local communities collaborate with regional and international actors to co-create new rangeland use models that simultaneously mitigate the impacts of climate change, restore biodiversity, and improve both ecosystem functioning and livelihoods.