• Energy Research

AbstractDespite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio‐temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell‐wall‐thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (−3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°–66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed‐effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth‐System‐Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate‐carbon feedbacks.

Significance Forest trees can live for hundreds to thousands of years, and they play a critical role in mitigating global warming by fixing approximately 15% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions annually by wood formation. However, the environmental factors triggering wood formation onset in springtime and the cellular mechanisms underlying this onset remain poorly understood, since wood forms beneath the bark and is difficult to monitor. We report that the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers is driven primarily by photoperiod and mean annual temperature. Understanding the unique relationships between exogenous factors and wood formation could aid in predicting how forest ecosystems respond and adapt to climate warming, while improving the assessment of long-term and high-resolution observations of global biogeochemical cycles.