• Energy Research

AbstractThrough the Anthropocene, growing populations and economic assets have intensified risk. Within deltas, the concurrence of high human populations and economic assets with climatic events, physical and biophysical processes, and natural hazards generate ‘hotspots’ of societal risk. Identification of these hotspots requires combining hazards, exposure, and vulnerability data and information on a spatial basis. However, changing human activities over both time and space affect the nature and location of these hotspots. Analysis of the distribution and change in risk components identifies vulnerable areas and communities and where changes in hotspots may occur in the future. This can inform other analysis, such as the design of surveys and data collection, as well as identify policy needs and indicate where adaptation actions are likely to be required.

Abstract Deltas require sufficient sediment to maintain their land area and elevation in the face of relative sea-level rise. Understanding sediment budgets can help in managing and assessing delta resilience under future conditions. Here, we make a sediment budget for the distributary channel network of the Rhine—Meuse delta (RMD), the Netherlands, home to the Port of Rotterdam. We predict the future budget and distribution of suspended sediment to indicate the possible future state of the delta in 2050 and 2085. The influence of climate and anthropogenic effects on the fluvial and coastal boundaries was calculated for climate change scenarios, and the effects of future dredging on the budget were related to port development and accommodation of larger ships in inland ports. Suspended sediment rating curves and a 1D flow model were used to estimate the distribution of suspended sediment and projected erosion and sedimentation trends for branches. We forecast a negative sediment budget (net annual loss of sediment) for the delta as a whole, varying from −8 to −16 Mt/year in 2050 and −11 to −25 Mt/year by 2085, depending on the climate scenario and accumulated error. This sediment is unfavourably distributed: most will accrete in the northern part of the system and must consequently be removed by dredging for navigation. Meanwhile, vulnerable intertidal ecosystems will receive insufficient sediment to keep up with sea-level rise, and some channels will erode, endangering bank protection. Despite increased coastal import of sediment by estuarine processes and increased river sediment supply, extensive dredging for port development will cause a sediment deficit in the future.

Regular sediment inputs are required for deltas to maintain their surface elevation relative to sea level, which is important for avoiding salinization, erosion, and flooding. However, fluvial sediment inputs to deltas are being threatened by changes in upstream catchments due to climate and land use change and, particularly, reservoir construction. In this research, the global hydrogeomorphic model WBMsed is used to project and contrast 'pristine' (no anthropogenic impacts) and 'recent' historical fluvial sediment delivery to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Mahanadi, and Volta deltas. Additionally, 12 potential future scenarios of environmental change comprising combinations of four climate and three socioeconomic pathways, combined with a single construction timeline for future reservoirs, were simulated and analysed. The simulations of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta showed a large decrease in sediment flux over time, regardless of future scenario, from 669 Mt/a in a 'pristine' world, through 566 Mt/a in the 'recent' past, to 79-92 Mt/a by the end of the 21st century across the scenarios (total average decline of 88%). In contrast, for the Mahanadi delta the simulated sediment delivery increased between the 'pristine' and 'recent' past from 23 Mt/a to 40 Mt/a (+77%), and then decreased to 7-25 Mt/a by the end of the 21st century. The Volta delta shows a large decrease in sediment delivery historically, from 8 to 0.3 Mt/a (96%) between the 'pristine' and 'recent' past, however over the 21st century the sediment flux changes little and is predicted to vary between 0.2 and 0.4 Mt/a dependent on scenario. For the Volta delta, catchment management short of removing or re-engineering the Volta dam would have little effect, however without careful management of the upstream catchments these deltas may be unable to maintain their current elevation relative to sea level, suggesting increasing salinization, erosion, flood hazards, and adaptation demands.

We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) mega-delta.

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta is one of the world's largest deltas. It is currently experiencing high rates of relative sea-level rise of about 5 mm/year, reflecting anthropogenic climate change and land subsidence. This is expected to accelerate further through the 21st Century, so there are concerns that the GBM delta will be progressively submerged. In this context, a core question is: can sedimentation on the delta surface maintain its elevation relative to sea level? This research seeks to answer this question by applying a two-dimensional flow and morphological model which is capable of handling dynamic interactions between the river and floodplain systems and simulating floodplain sedimentation under different flow-sediment regimes and anthropogenic interventions. We find that across a range of flood frequencies and adaptation scenarios (including the natural polder-free state), the retained volume of sediment varies between 22% and 50% of the corresponding sediment input. This translates to average rates of sedimentation on the delta surface of 5.5 mm/yr to 7.5 mm/yr. Hence, under present conditions, sedimentation associated with quasi-natural conditions can exceed current rates of relative sea-level rise and potentially create new land mass. These findings highlight that encouraging quasi-natural conditions through the widespread application of active sediment management measures has the potential to promote more sustainable outcomes for the GBM delta. Practical measures to promote include tidal river management, and appropriate combinations of cross-dams, bandal-like structures, and dredging.