• Energy Research

Les événements extrêmes, tels que ceux causés par le changement climatique, les chocs économiques ou géopolitiques et les épidémies de ravageurs ou de maladies, menacent la sécurité alimentaire mondiale. La complexité de la causalité, ainsi que la myriade de façons dont un événement, ou une séquence d'événements, crée des impacts en cascade et systémiques, posent des défis importants à la recherche sur les systèmes alimentaires et aux politiques. Pour identifier les risques prioritaires pour la sécurité alimentaire et les opportunités de recherche, nous avons demandé à des experts de divers domaines et régions géographiques de décrire les principales menaces pour la sécurité alimentaire mondiale au cours des deux prochaines décennies et de suggérer des questions et des lacunes de recherche clés sur ce sujet. Nous présentons ici une hiérarchisation des menaces à la sécurité alimentaire mondiale résultant d'événements extrêmes, ainsi que des questions de recherche émergentes qui mettent en évidence les défis conceptuels et pratiques qui existent dans la conception, l'adoption et la gouvernance de systèmes alimentaires résilients. Nous espérons que ces résultats aideront à orienter le financement de la recherche et les ressources vers les transformations du système alimentaire nécessaires pour aider la société à faire face aux principaux risques du système alimentaire et à l'insécurité alimentaire en cas d'événements extrêmes. Los eventos extremos, como los causados por el cambio climático, las crisis económicas o geopolíticas y las epidemias de plagas o enfermedades, amenazan la seguridad alimentaria mundial. La complejidad de la causalidad, así como las innumerables formas en que un evento, o una secuencia de eventos, crea impactos en cascada y sistémicos, plantea desafíos significativos para la investigación y las políticas de los sistemas alimentarios por igual. Para identificar los riesgos prioritarios para la seguridad alimentaria y las oportunidades de investigación, pedimos a expertos de una variedad de campos y geografías que describieran las amenazas clave para la seguridad alimentaria mundial en las próximas dos décadas y que sugirieran preguntas y brechas clave de investigación sobre este tema. Aquí, presentamos una priorización de las amenazas a la seguridad alimentaria mundial derivadas de eventos extremos, así como preguntas de investigación emergentes que resaltan los desafíos conceptuales y prácticos que existen para diseñar, adoptar y gobernar sistemas alimentarios resilientes. Esperamos que estos hallazgos ayuden a dirigir la financiación de la investigación y los recursos hacia las transformaciones del sistema alimentario necesarias para ayudar a la sociedad a abordar los principales riesgos del sistema alimentario y la inseguridad alimentaria en situaciones extremas. Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events. وتهدد الأحداث المتطرفة، مثل تلك الناجمة عن تغير المناخ والصدمات الاقتصادية أو الجيوسياسية وأوبئة الآفات أو الأمراض، الأمن الغذائي العالمي. إن تعقيد السببية، فضلاً عن الطرق التي لا تعد ولا تحصى التي يخلق بها الحدث، أو سلسلة من الأحداث، تأثيرات متتالية ومنهجية، تشكل تحديات كبيرة لبحوث وسياسات النظم الغذائية على حد سواء. لتحديد مخاطر الأمن الغذائي ذات الأولوية وفرص البحث، طلبنا من خبراء من مجموعة من المجالات والمناطق الجغرافية وصف التهديدات الرئيسية للأمن الغذائي العالمي على مدى العقدين المقبلين واقتراح أسئلة وثغرات بحثية رئيسية حول هذا الموضوع. هنا، نقدم أولوية للتهديدات التي يتعرض لها الأمن الغذائي العالمي من الأحداث المتطرفة، بالإضافة إلى أسئلة البحث الناشئة التي تسلط الضوء على التحديات المفاهيمية والعملية الموجودة في تصميم وتبني وإدارة النظم الغذائية المرنة. نأمل أن تساعد هذه النتائج في توجيه تمويل البحوث والموارد نحو تحولات النظام الغذائي اللازمة لمساعدة المجتمع على معالجة المخاطر الرئيسية للنظام الغذائي وانعدام الأمن الغذائي في ظل الأحداث المتطرفة.

Background: Child undernutrition and flooding are highly prevalent public health issues in Asia, yet epidemiological studies investigating this association are lacking. Methods: To investigate to what extent floods exacerbate poor nutritional status in children and identify most vulnerable groups, we conducted a population-based survey of children aged 6–59 months inhabiting flooded and non-flooded communities of the Jagatsinghpur district, Odisha (India), one year after large floods in 2008. Anthropometric measurements on 879 children and child, parental and household level variables were collected through face-to-face interviews in September 2009. The association between flooding and the prevalence of wasting, stunting and underweight was examined using weighted multivariate logistic regression for children inhabiting communities exposed solely to floods in 2008 and those communities repeatedly flooded (2006 and 2008) controlling for parental education and other relevant variables. We examined the influence of age on this association. Propensity score matching was conducted to test the robustness of our findings. Results: The prevalence of wasting among children flooded in 2006 and 2008 was 51.6%, 41.4% in those flooded only in 2008, and 21.2% in children inhabiting non-flooded communities. Adjusting by confounders, the increased prevalence relative to non-flooded children in the exposed groups were 2.30 (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR); 95% CI: 1.86, 2.85) and 1.94 (95% CI: 1.43, 2.63), respectively. Among repeatedly flooded communities, cases of severe wasting in children were 3.37 times more prevalent than for children inhabiting in those non-flooded (95% CI: 2.34, 4.86) and nearly twice more prevalent relative to those flooded only once. Those children younger than one year during previous floods in 2006 showed the largest difference in prevalence of wasting compared to their non-flooded counterparts (aPR: 4.01; 95% CI: 1.51, 10.63). Results were robust to alternative adjusted models and in propensity score matching analyses. For similar analyses, no significant associations were found for child stunting, and more moderate effects were observed in the case of child underweight. Conclusions: Particularly in low-resource or subsistence-farming rural settings, long-lasting nutritional response in the aftermath of floods should be seriously considered to counteract the long-term nutritional effects on children, particularly infants, and include their mothers on whom they are dependent. The systematic monitoring of nutritional status in these groups might help to tailor efficient responses in each particular context.

ObjectivesThis study aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between exposure to floods and malnutrition in children aged 6–59 months in rural India. Research has focused exclusively on Bangladeshi children, and few controlled epidemiological studies are available.MethodA community-based cross-sectional study of child nutritional status was carried out in 14 flooded and 18 non-flooded villages of Jagatsinghpur district (Orissa) within one month of the September 2008 floods, and similarly affected by flooding in August 2006. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 757 households in the flooded villages and 816 in the non-flooded communities. Data used in this study were from those households with children aged 6–59 months. In total, 191 and 161 children were measured, respectively. The association between various malnutrition indicators and the exposure to floods was assessed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression.ResultsAdjusted analyses revealed that children in flooded households were more likely stunted compared with those in non-flooded ones (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.60; 95% CI 1.05 to 2.44). The prevalence of underweight was also higher in children living in the flooded communities (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.86; 95% CI 1.04 to 3.30). Further analyses found that the 26–36-month flooded cohort, thus those children younger than 1 year during the precedent flood in August 2006, attained the largest difference in levels of stunting compared with the unexposed group of the same age.ConclusionExposure to floods is associated with long-term malnutrition in these rural communities of Orissa, India. Children exposed to floods during their first year of life presented higher levels of chronic malnutrition. Long-term malnutrition prevention programmes after floods should be implemented in flood-prone areas.