• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close

Continued urban population expansion will be a defining challenge for climate change mitigation, and global sustainability more generally, over the coming decades. In this context, an important but underexplored issue concerns the relationship between the scale of urban areas and their carbon emissions. This paper employs the urban Kaya relation and Reduced Major Axis regression to look at urban emission patterns in China from 2000 to 2016. Our results reveal that larger cities tend to have lower per capita emissions. Thus, population agglomeration may be able to contribute to climate change mitigation and a wider transition to sustainability. The inverse-U shape between carbon emissions and population size is found. In addition, we observe unique scaling patterns in different regions, revealing how the relationship between emissions and population can be influenced by economic geography. City consumption weakens the role of population agglomeration in reducing carbon emissions in the East region, therefore it should be placed top priority in carbon emissions mitigation. These findings are important for China which looks to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 against the backdrop of intertwined interplay between population agglomeration and city consumption.

Abstract Different assumptions and methodologies prompt divergent policy recommendationgs for combatting climate change. Although climate scientists would like to be as precise as possible, policymakers with different attitudes towards climate change will always choose the result that matches their own value judgments. This paper discusses the impact of climate change attitudes on optimal mitigation in 15 regions. The climate change attitude is refined by a meta-analysis of 27 climate damage estimations and distilled into five damage functions. The optimal mitigation is calculated using the non-cooperative scenario of the regional integrated model of climate economy (RICE). The results show that the optimal mitigation paths in developing countries are more sensitive to climate change attitudes than they are in developed countries. In 2100, the range of optimal emissions represents 20% of the average optimal emissions by developing countries, which is twice the value of average optimal emissions by developed countries. The average social carbon cost in developing countries is 20 times higher than that in developed countries. This large uncertainty may be the combined result of high shadow prices of capital and large quantities of future emissions in these developing countries.

AbstractAtmospheric mercury is a crucial pollutant that must be well‐controlled to avoid damaging public health. It is thus necessary to understand from multiple perspectives the roles played by different industrial sectors, as well as their geographical distribution. Existing studies have overlooked the transmission sectors in the economic supply chains of the embodied atmospheric mercury emission network. In this paper, we offer a betweenness‐based account (BBA) for Chinese regions and industrial sectors in transmitting embodied atmospheric mercury emissions and in doing so have identified the transmitting hubs. Our results show that the Henan province acts as the transmission hub of the embodied atmospheric mercury emission network in China. The metallurgy, chemical, and construction industries generally play important roles in the transmission of embodied atmospheric mercury emissions across China. Henan's metallurgy sector, the third highest of all, is more closely linked with inter‐provincial sectors than the top two transmission sectors (the metallurgy industry of Jiangsu and the chemical industry of Shandong). This study can help policy makers improve mercury control measures by focusing on transmission processes for effective and comprehensive atmospheric mercury emission control.

Since 2013, China's economy has undergone a series of major structural changes under the new normal. This study aimed to research China's plateauing regional-level energy consumption at this stage by analysing socioeconomic factors driving energy consumption changes from 2002 to 2019 through decomposition analysis and regional value chains. The results indicate that the annual growth rate of China's energy consumption dropped from 10% between 2002 and 2013 to 2% between 2013 and 2019, mainly attributable to energy efficiency enhancement offsetting the −27% increase from 2013 to 2019 and structural changes. At the regional level, the three structural drivers were closely related, including the regional structure, industrial structure and energy structure. Under the new normal, the −2.58% contribution of the regional structure to energy consumption growth was mainly made by regions with a high energy efficiency; one way to improve the energy efficiency was to upgrade the regional industrial structure, leading to the slowdown by 0.26%; and industrial transition could be accompanied by adjustment of the energy structure towards relatively clean energy, thereby offsetting growth by −0.13%. The energy consumption required to create value-added outflows along regional value chains varied greatly across regions, sectors and years.

Abstract To improve the air quality in winter, clean heating policy was implemented in “2 + 26” cities of China in 2016, which mainly included replacing coal with gas or electricity. Tremendous financial subsidies have been provided by city and central governments. This new heating mode changed the heating fee-cost to residents. This paper estimates the economic costs to both governments and residents, and evaluates the environmental and public health benefits by combining a difference-in-differences model with an exposure-response function. Results show that the total costs of clean heating were up to 43.1 billion yuan. Governments and residents account for 44% and 56% of the total costs, respectively. In terms of benefits, the clean heating project is effective for air pollution control and brings health economic benefits of about 109.85 billion yuan (95% CI: 22.40–159.83). The clean heating policy was identified as a net-positive benefit program with environmental and public health improvements. However, the inequality in subsidies from different cities governments increases the heating burden on low-income households and leads to heating poverty for households in the less developed regions. We provide suggestions for implementation in future clean heating campaigns and in subsidy mechanism design in China and for other developing countries.

AbstractAs global average temperatures rise, so does the frequency and intensity of El Niño-induced droughts, which in turn threaten the reliability of hydropower. 1.4 billion people live in countries where hydropower constitutes more than a quarter of the electricity production and which have experienced El Niño droughts, meaning many more power outages can be expected around the world. Little research has been conducted on the impact of power outages on mental health. This study takes Zambia as its case study to examine the impact that El Niño droughts have had on the lives of householders connected to a highly hydropower-dependant electricity grid, and includes the impact it has had on their physical and self-reported mental health. Using 54 online responses to a survey, we found that the greatest impacts of outages spoiled food, compromised entertainment, compromised ability to work and limitation in cooking options. More than a fifth of respondents reported experiencing self-reported depression to a major degree or all of the time due to power outages, with individuals writing their own responses that they felt debilitated, experienced reduced communication and reduced activities, and stress. Using Bayesian inference, we found that changes in sleeping patterns arising from power outages was a statistically significant predictor of self-reported depression. 63% of surveyed households were willing to pay approximately USD 0.10/kWh as of the end of 2019, about double the tariff that they did, to ensure reliable electricity supply. Household income was a statistically significant predictor of willingness to pay more.

Urban mobility planning must urgently confront the challenges attendant to the low carbon transition and green transformation. The necessary paradigm shift from the traditional approaches to embracing environmental sustainability requires maintaining a firm and stable balancing act between opposing forces. The policy-making process in the transition period is complex and requires a detailed analysis that the academic literature lacks. This study analyzes the decision-making process for urban mobility planning to contribute the academic literature on sustainable transitions. In order to illustrate the complexities in the decision-making process, we design an original case scenario. In the case, the planners are supposed to choose the best project from among four recent green strategies. In the process, they need to take the conflicting requirements on the social, economic, environmental and technical issues into account. Sixteen constraints reflect the available physical and financial conditions. Because the decision-making process includes complexities, a novel two-stages model is introduced in the method that is used to solve the problem. In the first stage, the fuzzy D PIvot Pairwise RElative Criteria Importance Assessment (PIPRECIA) algorithm is applied to determine the weights. In the second stage, the fuzzy D Dombi (fuzzy 2D) algorithm is proposed to evaluate the alternatives. The results show that societal dynamics are crucially important in choosing the best alternative. Among four alternatives, the one that is inclusive and makes the existing investments more efficient is highly prioritized. Our findings offer policy implications emphasizing the importance of green mobility projects that favors the social benefits as well as financial issues.

Les émissions de CO2 sont inégalement réparties à la fois au niveau mondial et régional au sein des États-nations. Compte tenu de l'entrée de la Chine dans la nouvelle étape du développement économique, une étude mise à jour sur la distribution des émissions nationales du plus grand émetteur de CO2 est nécessaire pour une planification mondiale efficace et coordonnée de l'atténuation du CO2. Nous avons découvert que les émissions domestiques de CO2 en Chine sont de plus en plus polarisées pour la période 2007-2017. Plus précisément, les émissions de CO2 exportées au niveau national de la région du nord-ouest moins développée et plus polluante vers le reste de la Chine ont considérablement augmenté, passant de 165 Mt en 2007 à 230 Mt en 2017. Nous attribuons la tendance polarisante à la mise à niveau industrielle simultanée de toutes les régions et à la disparité persistante dans le développement et le découplage des émissions des régions chinoises. Nous avons également noté que les émissions de CO2 exportées de Chine vers le reste du monde ont diminué de 41 % entre 2007 et 2017, d'autres pays en développement remplissant le poste vacant. Alors que cette tendance devrait s'intensifier, nous avons l'intention d'envoyer un message d'alarme aux décideurs politiques pour concevoir et lancer des actions et éviter la poursuite de la migration de la pollution. Las emisiones de CO2 se distribuyen de manera desigual tanto a nivel mundial como regional dentro de los estados-nación. Dada la entrada de China en la nueva etapa de desarrollo económico, se necesita un estudio actualizado sobre la distribución interna de emisiones del mayor emisor de CO2 para una planificación global eficaz y coordinada de la mitigación de CO2. Descubrimos que las emisiones internas de CO2 en China están cada vez más polarizadas para el período 2007-2017. Específicamente, las emisiones de CO2 exportadas internamente de la región noroeste menos desarrollada y más contaminante al resto de China han aumentado drásticamente de 165 Mt en 2007 a 230 Mt en 2017. Atribuimos la tendencia polarizadora a la mejora industrial simultánea de todas las regiones y a la disparidad persistente en el desarrollo y el desacoplamiento de las emisiones de las regiones de China. También notamos que las emisiones de CO2 exportadas desde China al resto del mundo han disminuido en un 41% de 2007 a 2017, y otros países en desarrollo han llenado la vacante. A medida que esta tendencia se intensifique, tenemos la intención de enviar un mensaje de alarma a los responsables políticos para que diseñen e inicien acciones y eviten la continuación de la migración de la contaminación. CO2 emissions are unevenly distributed both globally and regionally within nation-states. Given China's entrance into the new stage of economic development, an updated study on the largest CO2 emitter's domestic emission distribution is needed for effective and coordinated global CO2 mitigation planning. We discovered that domestic CO2 emissions in China are increasingly polarized for the 2007-2017 period. Specifically, the domestically exported CO2 emissions from the less developed and more polluting northwest region to the rest of China has drastically increased from 165 Mt in 2007 to 230 Mt in 2017. We attribute the polarizing trend to the simultaneous industrial upgrading of all regions and the persistent disparity in the development and emission decoupling of China's regions. We also noted that CO2 emissions exported from China to the rest of the world has decreased by 41% from 2007 to 2017, with other developing countries filling up the vacancy. As this trend is set to intensify, we intend to send an alarm message to policy makers to devise and initiate actions and avoid the continuation of pollution migration. يتم توزيع انبعاثات ثاني أكسيد الكربون بشكل غير متساوٍ عالميًا وإقليميًا داخل الدول القومية. نظرًا لدخول الصين إلى المرحلة الجديدة من التنمية الاقتصادية، هناك حاجة إلى دراسة محدثة حول أكبر توزيع محلي لانبعاثات ثاني أكسيد الكربون للتخطيط العالمي الفعال والمنسق للتخفيف من ثاني أكسيد الكربون. اكتشفنا أن انبعاثات ثاني أكسيد الكربون المحلية في الصين مستقطبة بشكل متزايد للفترة 2007-2017. على وجه التحديد، زادت انبعاثات ثاني أكسيد الكربون المصدرة محليًا من المنطقة الشمالية الغربية الأقل تطورًا والأكثر تلوثًا إلى بقية الصين بشكل كبير من 165 طن متري في عام 2007 إلى 230 طن متري في عام 2017. نعزو الاتجاه الاستقطابي إلى التطوير الصناعي المتزامن لجميع المناطق والتفاوت المستمر في التنمية وفصل الانبعاثات في مناطق الصين. كما لاحظنا أن انبعاثات ثاني أكسيد الكربون المصدرة من الصين إلى بقية العالم قد انخفضت بنسبة 41 ٪ من عام 2007 إلى عام 2017، مع قيام البلدان النامية الأخرى بملء الشاغر. ومع تزايد هذا الاتجاه، نعتزم إرسال رسالة إنذار إلى صانعي السياسات لوضع الإجراءات والشروع فيها وتجنب استمرار هجرة التلوث.

AbstractChina has set Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and carbon neutrality targets without providing expected industry‐specific technological details. By focusing on the steel and cement industries in China, this study analyzes the energy consumption of different technology routes, decarbonization pathways of innovative technologies, and the synergistic impact of air pollutants. The study finds that the incumbent technology routes for steel and cement production have limited carbon reductions, and the deployment of innovative technologies (carbon capture, utilization, and storage [CCUS], electrolytic‐ and hydrogen‐based, and scrap‐based technologies) need to be accelerated to achieve carbon neutrality targets. We find that the net‐zero emissions pathway relying upon innovative technologies needs less investment than the NDCs scenario. Furthermore, electric arc furnace deployment will be mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Sichuan, while CCUS should be mainly in Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, and Jiangsu provinces. The increased electrification of innovative technologies in steel and cement requires a shift in energy inputs from fossil energy to electricity. A combination of strict climate change mitigation and air pollution control will have higher synergistic effects.