• Energy Research

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Abstract. Nitrous oxide emissions from a network of agricultural experiments in Europe and Zimbabwe were used to explore the relative importance of site and management controls of emissions. At each site, a selection of management interventions were compared within replicated experimental designs in plot based experiments. Arable experiments were conducted at Beano in Italy, El Encin in Spain, Foulum in Denmark, Logården in Sweden, Maulde in Belgium, Paulinenaue in Germany, Harare in Zimbabwe and Tulloch in the UK. Grassland experiments were conducted at Crichton, Nafferton and Peaknaze in the UK, Gödöllö in Hungary, Rzecin in Poland, Zarnekow in Germany and Theix in France. Nitrous oxide emissions were measured at each site over a period of at least two years using static chambers. Emissions varied widely between sites and as a result of manipulation treatments. Average site emissions (throughout the study period) varied between 0.04 and 21.21 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1, with the largest fluxes and variability associated with the grassland sites. Total nitrogen addition was found to be the single most important determinant of emissions, accounting for 15% of the variance (using linear regression) in the data from the arable sites (p < 0.0001), and 77% in the grassland sites. The annual emissions from arable sites were significantly greater than those that would be predicted by IPCC default emission factors. Variability in N2O within sites that occurred as a result of manipulation treatments was greater than that resulting from site to site and year to year variation, highlighting the importance of management interventions in contributing to greenhouse gas mitigation.