• Energy Research

AbstractTo halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Les analyses de scénarios ont été utilisées dans de multiples évaluations scientifiques et politiques pour mieux comprendre les futurs plausibles complexes. Les approches d'archétypes de scénarios sont basées sur le fait que de nombreux scénarios futurs ont des scénarios sous-jacents, des hypothèses et des tendances similaires dans les facteurs de changement, ce qui permet de regrouper les scénarios en typologies ou en archétypes, facilitant les comparaisons entre un large éventail d'études. L'utilisation d'archétypes de scénarios dans les évaluations environnementales met en avant des questions de politique importantes et peut être utilisée pour codifier des interventions abordant de futurs problèmes de durabilité. Récemment, Les archétypes de scénarios ont été utilisés dans quatre évaluations régionales et une évaluation mondiale en cours au sein de la Plateforme intergouvernementale scientifique et politique pour la biodiversité et les services écosystémiques (IPBES). L'objectif de ces évaluations était de fournir aux décideurs des connaissances pertinentes pour les politiques sur l'état de la biodiversité, les écosystèmes et les contributions qu'ils apportent aux populations. Ce document réfléchit à l'utilité de l'approche des archétypes de scénarios dans les processus scientifiques et politiques, en s'appuyant sur l'expérience des évaluations de l'IPBES. En utilisant une analyse thématique (a) des données d'enquête recueillies auprès d'experts impliqués dans les analyses des archétypes dans les évaluations de l'IPBES, (b) des notes des ateliers de l'IPBES, et (c) les textes des chapitres régionaux d'évaluation, nous synthétisons les avantages, les défis et les frontières de l'application de l'approche des archétypes de scénarios dans un processus science-politique. Les archétypes de scénarios ont été perçus comme permettant la synthèse de grandes quantités d'informations à des fins scientifiques, pratiques et politiques, rationalisant les messages clés de plusieurs études de scénarios et facilitant leur communication aux utilisateurs finaux. En termes de défis, ils ont été perçus comme subjectifs dans leur interprétation, simplifiant à l'excès les informations, ayant une applicabilité limitée à toutes les échelles et dissimulant des informations contextuelles et de nouveaux récits. Enfin, nos résultats mettent en évidence les méthodologies, les applications et les frontières de la recherche basée sur les archétypes qui devraient être explorées à l'avenir. Ces avancées peuvent aider à la conception de futurs processus d'évaluation à grande échelle liés à la durabilité, visant à mieux soutenir les décisions et les interventions pour un avenir équitable et durable. Los análisis de escenarios se han utilizado en múltiples evaluaciones de políticas científicas para comprender mejor los futuros plausibles complejos. Los enfoques de arquetipos de escenarios se basan en el hecho de que muchos escenarios futuros tienen historias, suposiciones y tendencias subyacentes similares en los impulsores del cambio, lo que permite agrupar los escenarios en tipologías o arquetipos, lo que facilita las comparaciones entre una amplia gama de estudios. El uso de arquetipos de escenarios en evaluaciones ambientales pone en primer plano importantes cuestiones de política y se puede utilizar para diseñar conjuntamente intervenciones que aborden futuros problemas de sostenibilidad. Recientemente, los arquetipos de escenarios se utilizaron en cuatro evaluaciones regionales y una evaluación global en curso dentro de la Plataforma Intergubernamental Científico-Normativa para la Biodiversidad y los Servicios de los Ecosistemas (IPBES). El objetivo de estas evaluaciones era proporcionar a los responsables de la toma de decisiones conocimientos relevantes para las políticas sobre el estado de la biodiversidad, los ecosistemas y las contribuciones que brindan a las personas. Este documento refleja la utilidad del enfoque de arquetipos de escenarios dentro de los procesos científico-políticos, basándose en la experiencia de las evaluaciones de la IPBES. Utilizando un análisis temático de (a) datos de encuestas recopilados de expertos involucrados en los análisis de arquetipos en las evaluaciones de la IPBES, (b) notas de los talleres de la IPBES, y (c) textos de capítulos de evaluación regional, sintetizamos los beneficios, desafíos y fronteras de aplicar el enfoque de arquetipos de escenarios en un proceso científico-político. Se percibió que los arquetipos de escenarios permitían sintetizar grandes cantidades de información para fines científicos, prácticos y relacionados con políticas, agilizar los mensajes clave de múltiples estudios de escenarios y facilitar la comunicación de los mismos a los usuarios finales. En términos de desafíos, se percibieron como subjetivos en su interpretación, simplificando en exceso la información, teniendo una aplicabilidad limitada en todas las escalas y ocultando información contextual y narrativas novedosas. Por último, nuestros resultados resaltan qué metodologías, aplicaciones y fronteras en la investigación basada en arquetipos deben explorarse en el futuro. Estos avances pueden ayudar al diseño de futuros procesos de evaluación relacionados con la sostenibilidad a gran escala, con el objetivo de apoyar mejor las decisiones e intervenciones para futuros equitativos y sostenibles. Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures.Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies.The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues.Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people.This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments.Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process.Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users.In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives.Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future.These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures. تم استخدام تحليلات السيناريوهات في تقييمات متعددة للسياسة العلمية لفهم أفضل للمستقبل المعقد المعقول. تستند مناهج النموذج الأصلي للسيناريو إلى حقيقة أن العديد من السيناريوهات المستقبلية لها خطوط قصص وافتراضات واتجاهات أساسية متشابهة في محركات التغيير، مما يسمح بتجميع السيناريوهات في تصنيفات أو نماذج أصلية، مما يسهل المقارنات بين مجموعة كبيرة من الدراسات. إن استخدام النماذج الأصلية للسيناريوهات في التقييمات البيئية يبرز أسئلة سياسية مهمة ويمكن استخدامه لتصميم التدخلات التي تعالج قضايا الاستدامة المستقبلية. في الآونة الأخيرة، تم استخدام النماذج الأصلية للسيناريو في أربعة تقييمات إقليمية وتقييم عالمي واحد مستمر داخل المنبر الحكومي الدولي للعلوم والسياسات في مجال التنوع البيولوجي وخدمات النظم الإيكولوجية (IPBES). كان الهدف من هذه التقييمات هو تزويد صانعي القرار بالمعرفة ذات الصلة بالسياسات حول حالة التنوع البيولوجي والنظم الإيكولوجية والمساهمات التي تقدمها للناس. تعكس هذه الورقة فائدة نهج النموذج الأصلي للسيناريو في عمليات العلوم والسياسات، بالاعتماد على الخبرة المكتسبة من تقييمات المنبر الحكومي الدولي للعلوم والسياسات في مجال التنوع البيولوجي وخدمات النظم الإيكولوجية. باستخدام تحليل مواضيعي لـ (أ) بيانات المسح التي تم جمعها من الخبراء المشاركين في تحليلات النموذج الأصلي عبر تقييمات المنبر الحكومي الدولي للعلوم والسياسات في مجال التنوع البيولوجي وخدمات النظم الإيكولوجية، (ب) ملاحظات من ورش عمل المنبر الحكومي الدولي للعلوم والسياسات في مجال التنوع البيولوجي وخدمات النظم الإيكولوجية، و (ج) نصوص فصول التقييم الإقليمي، نقوم بتجميع الفوائد والتحديات والحدود لتطبيق نهج النموذج الأصلي للسيناريو في عملية العلوم والسياسات. تم تصور النماذج الأصلية للسيناريو للسماح بتوليف كميات كبيرة من المعلومات للأغراض العلمية والممارسة والسياسات، وتبسيط الرسائل الرئيسية من دراسات السيناريوهات المتعددة، وتسهيل توصيلها إلى المستخدمين النهائيين. من حيث التحديات، كان يُنظر إليها على أنها ذاتية في تفسيرها، وتبسيط المعلومات بشكل مفرط، وقابلية التطبيق المحدودة عبر المقاييس، وإخفاء المعلومات السياقية والروايات الجديدة. أخيرًا، تسلط نتائجنا الضوء على المنهجيات والتطبيقات والحدود في البحوث القائمة على النموذج الأصلي التي يجب استكشافها في المستقبل. يمكن أن تساعد هذه التطورات في تصميم عمليات التقييم المتعلقة بالاستدامة على نطاق واسع في المستقبل، بهدف دعم القرارات والتدخلات بشكل أفضل من أجل مستقبل عادل ومستدام.

AbstractSocial–ecological production landscapes and seascapes (SEPLS) are an essential source of livelihood for people worldwide; however, they are experiencing challenges due to climate and ecological systems’ change affecting their bioproduction mechanisms. These externally influenced drivers challenge their relevance, which calls for the revitalization of these systems focusing on sustainable use and management of resources with increased socio-ecological resilience and improved economic viability. In response, this study was conducted by reviewing the literature on 90 bioproduction systems in SEPLS across three countries in Asia, Japan, Philippines and Indonesia. Through a solution scanning exercise, the study aims to identify the driver of change, the involvement of stakeholders, and the prominent response types considered during their revival. The recorded 348 policy responses are filtered using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment-based response typology to systematically categorize the scanned solutions, and the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) to capture the linked pluralistic values. In addition to the solutions, the study captured the drivers of change and other characteristics of the bioproduction system. Overall, the stakeholder engagement, the solution type, and pathways to achieve the NFF perspectives vary across the countries. In all study countries, the change in natural, physical, and biological systems and challenges posed by land use change are the key direct driver. Indirect drivers in Japan are mainly associated with demographic change, while in the Philippines and Indonesia, they are socio-political and technological challenges, respectively. The NFF filtering indicates a stronger lean toward a ‘Nature as Culture/One with Nature’ perspective, achieved through solutions targeting sociocultural and behavioral change and community-based management. The solutions and the filtering allowed an understanding of the differing approaches, which can guide other bioproduction systems in enhancing their socio-economic resilience and bringing transformative change to SEPLS.

Socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes (SEPLS) are characterized by a dynamic mosaic of different ecosystem types that maintain relatively high biodiversity and produce a bundle of ecosystem services. One unique characteristic of SEPLS is the sharing of provisioning services within and beyond communities, such as forests, agricultural and marine products. Conventional ecosystem assessments based on statistical data often ignore the benefits of these non-market provisioning services. This short communication quantifies the contribution of the sharing of food provisioning services in Japan in terms of their amount and variety, and it analyzes the relationship between such sharing practices and landscape types. Using an online web survey, we investigated the benefits of sharing goods and services provided from SEPLS. In both mountainous and flat agricultural areas, 16% of the total food amount came from non-market sources, compared to 10% in urbanized areas. Farmland and forests had significant positive correlations with most non-market food items in terms of amount. Greater amounts of built-up area in the landscape were associated with a lesser amount of non-market food provision. Food sharing culture can contribute to enhancing resilience against socio-economic changes and natural disasters. This study provides baseline information for monitoring the hidden flow of food provision and its multiple functions.

This article is one effort to examine the present and potential performances of CO2 emission reduction though industrial symbiosis by employing a case study approach and life cycle CO2 analysis for alternative industrial symbiosis scenarios. As one of the first and the best-known eco-town projects, Kawasaki Eco-town was chosen as a case study area. First, the current industrial symbiosis practices in this area are introduced. To evaluate the potential of reducing the total CO2 emission through industrial symbiosis, alternative industrial symbiosis scenarios are then designed based on a questionnaire survey of 57 major local industries, to which 35 companies appropriately responded. The main focus of this paper is to calculate the total CO2 emission for different scenarios by adopting a life cycle CO2 analysis method. We then present recommendations on further improvement with consideration of the local realities. Our findings are that industrial symbiosis practices in Kawasaki Eco-town still have room for improvement in that greenhouse gas emissions can be further reduced and natural resources conserved through effective material exchanges, not only between companies, but also with the surrounding area. To encourage material exchanges between the municipality and industry, the city government should introduce a detailed separation program for garbage collection so that wastes can be effectively reused. In addition, the Waste Disposal and Public Cleaning Law needs amending so that industries can effectively use municipal solid waste in their manufacturing.

The introduction of renewable energy (RE) is essential for building a sustainable society. However, RE can cause conflicts between energy production and biodiversity conservation. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate potential conflicts in the nexuses between energy and biodiversity for the Bekambeushi River watershed located in northeastern Japan. The increasing rate of pastureland abandonment resulting from a declining farmer population is a source of great uncertainty in this area. Two alternative sources of RE were selected to utilize these abandoned pasturelands, each taking a unique approach to meet targets stipulated by regional energy plans, thereby producing different ecological consequences at the landscape scale. Thirty-one RE introduction options were simulated, comprising a range of pastureland abandonment expansion speeds and ratios of solar photovoltaic (PV) plant installation to biomass energy use. These were superimposed using two IPCC representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, 2.6 and 8.5, resulting in 62 scenarios that were summarized as three groups based on the RE supply–demand balance and the ecological impacts. The LANDIS-II model was used to simulate these scenarios from 2016 to 2100. The results indicate that both the rate of pastureland abandonment and the ratio of the two RE sources had a large impact on changes in tree species diversity and the habitat suitability of raptors. Abandoned pastureland converted to tree biomass energy production shifted to pioneer species-dominated forest. The plant species composition of transitional forests varied between the climate scenarios. The higher temperature of the RCP 8.5 scenario toward 2100 prevented the establishment of Betula platyphylla and altered tree species diversity and the habitat suitability of Ketupa blakistoni blakistoni. Biomass energy utilization produced less energy than the demand but increased the three ecological indicators. Solar PV systems provided more energy than the regional demand, but the tree diversity and habitat suitability indices for two raptors declined. However, an appropriate mixture of the two RE sources satisfied the regional energy demand and maintained ecological conditions. Our results suggest that land–energy planning should consider energy–biodiversity nexuses to strike a balance between decarbonization and biodiversity conservation.

AbstractThe two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse biodiversity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade‐offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co‐benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post‐2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale‐dependent; therefore, we showcase examples of local biodiversity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re‐emphasize the vital relationships between biodiversity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come.