• Energy Research

Societal Impact StatementBananas are the world's most popular dessert fruit and a staple starch crop for millions in low‐ and middle‐income countries. The banana export trade that supplies North America, Europe, and other wealthy nations has a history fraught with exploitation and conflict. The price of cheap bananas has been environmental degradation, violence, and poverty. Only recently have efforts to address the power imbalances in this trade been made. Voluntary certification schemes aim to address multiple sustainability issues, while research into biological control, accelerated plant breeding, and efficient irrigation will help prepare the industry for emerging threats from pests, diseases, and climate change.SummaryBananas are the world's favorite dessert fruit, a staple starch crop for millions, and an important source of income for producers across the tropics and subtropics. Bananas evolved and diversified as giant perennial herbs of open habitats within the humid forests of Southeast Asia and West Oceania and were domesticated around 7000 years BP through a series of hybridization events. This review considers the journey from rainforest riversides to intensively managed monoculture plantations, focussing on the Cavendish banana that comprises nearly the entire global export trade. Climate change increasingly threatens economic sustainability in several major producer regions, requiring responses such as efficient irrigation systems to maintain productivity and water security. Pests and diseases are spreading globally and have severe direct impacts on production as well as indirect impacts via harm to ecological and human health caused by pesticides. New pest and disease management methods employing biological controls and enhancing soil health and new plant breeding techniques must be developed and implemented. The banana production and trade system has been characterized by power imbalances between international firms that own plantations and supply the market and the local agricultural workers who cultivate and harvest the fruit. Voluntary certification schemes have been developed to address the numerous environmental, social, and economic sustainability issues faced by the industry. There are indications, from research on biological disease control to new deals on wages and benefits for banana workers, that change is slowly coming to the global banana trade.

Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008–2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR,Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’.

Global food security is threatened by climate change, both directly through responses of crop physiology and productivity, and indirectly through responses of plant-associated microbiota, including plant pathogens. While the interactions between host plants, pathogens and environmental drivers can be complex, recent research is beginning to indicate certain overall patterns in how plant diseases will affect crop production in future. Here, we review the results of three methodological approaches: large-scale observational studies, process-based disease models and experimental comparisons of pathosystems under current and future conditions. We find that observational studies have tended to identify rising temperatures as the primary driver of disease impact. Process-based models suggest that rising temperatures will lead to latitudinal shifts in disease pressure, but drying conditions could mitigate disease risk. Experimental studies suggest that rising atmospheric CO2 will exacerbate disease impacts. Plant diseases may therefore counteract any crop yield increases due to climate change.

Plant disease outbreaks are increasing and threaten food security for the vulnerable in many areas of the world. Now a global human pandemic is threatening the health of millions on our planet. A stable, nutritious food supply will be needed to lift people out of poverty and improve health outcomes. Plant diseases, both endemic and recently emerging, are spreading and exacerbated by climate change, transmission with global food trade networks, pathogen spillover, and evolution of new pathogen lineages. In order to tackle these grand challenges, a new set of tools that include disease surveillance and improved detection technologies including pathogen sensors and predictive modeling and data analytics are needed to prevent future outbreaks. Herein, we describe an integrated research agenda that could help mitigate future plant disease pandemics.

Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

AbstractTropical deforestation is responsible for around one tenth of total anthropogenic carbon emissions, and tropical protected areas (PAs) that reduce deforestation can therefore play an important role in mitigating climate change and protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation has been estimated, the impact on global carbon emissions remains unquantified. Here we show that tropical PAs overall reduced deforestation carbon emissions by 4.88 Pg, or around 29%, between 2000 and 2012, when compared to expected rates of deforestation controlling for spatial variation in deforestation pressure. The largest contribution was from the tropical Americas (368.8 TgC y−1), followed by Asia (25.0 TgC y−1) and Africa (12.7 TgC y−1). Variation in PA effectiveness is largely driven by local factors affecting individual PAs, rather than designations assigned by governments.

Of the various crop pests and pathogens which blight our harvests, it is the fungi and oomycetes which are the most widely-dispersed groups and which lead the global invasion of agriculture. Here, we highlight the rapid growth in fungal and oomycete disease incidence and spread across the globe. We draw attention to the need for improved disease surveillance and for more sustainable agricultural intensification and consider the economic and humanitarian costs of fungal and oomycete diseases.