• Energy Research

Abstract Reducing the risk of large, severe wildfires while also increasing the security of mountain water supplies and enhancing biodiversity are urgent priorities in western US forests. After a century of fire suppression, Yosemite and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Parks located in California’s Sierra Nevada initiated programs to manage wildfires and these areas present a rare opportunity to study the effects of restored fire regimes. Forest cover decreased during the managed wildfire period and meadow and shrubland cover increased, especially in Yosemite’s Illilouette Creek basin that experienced a 20% reduction in forest area. These areas now support greater pyrodiversity and consequently greater landscape and species diversity. Soil moisture increased and drought-induced tree mortality decreased, especially in Illilouette where wildfires have been allowed to burn more freely resulting in a 30% increase in summer soil moisture. Modeling suggests that the ecohydrological co-benefits of restoring fire regimes are robust to the projected climatic warming. Support will be needed from the highest levels of government and the public to maintain existing programs and expand them to other forested areas.

Abstract Reducing the risk of large, severe wildfires while also increasing the security of mountain water supplies and enhancing biodiversity are urgent priorities in western US forests. After a century of fire suppression, Yosemite and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Parks located in California’s Sierra Nevada initiated programs to manage wildfires and these areas present a rare opportunity to study the effects of restored fire regimes. Forest cover decreased during the managed wildfire period and meadow and shrubland cover increased, especially in Yosemite’s Illilouette Creek basin that experienced a 20% reduction in forest area. These areas now support greater pyrodiversity and consequently greater landscape and species diversity. Soil moisture increased and drought-induced tree mortality decreased, especially in Illilouette where wildfires have been allowed to burn more freely resulting in a 30% increase in summer soil moisture. Modeling suggests that the ecohydrological co-benefits of restoring fire regimes are robust to the projected climatic warming. Support will be needed from the highest levels of government and the public to maintain existing programs and expand them to other forested areas.

Climate change is redistributing life on Earth, with profound impacts for ecosystems and human well-being. While repeat surveys separated by multidecadal intervals can determine whether observed shifts are in the expected direction (e.g., poleward or upslope due to climate change), they do not reveal their mechanisms or time scales: whether they were gradual responses to environmental trends or punctuated responses to disturbance events. Here, we document population reductions and temporary range contractions at multiple sites resulting from drought for three Pacific salmonids at their ranges’ trailing edge. During California’s 2012 to 2016 historic multiyear drought, the 2013 to 2014 winter stood apart because rainfall was both reduced and delayed. Extremely low river flows during the breeding season (“flow–phenology mismatch”) reduced or precluded access to breeding habitat. While Chinook ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) experienced a down-river range shift, entire cohorts failed in individual tributaries (steelhead trout, O. mykiss ) and in entire watersheds (coho salmon, O. kisutch) . Salmonids returned to impacted sites in subsequent years, rescued by reserves in the ocean, life history diversity, and, in one case, a conservation broodstock program. Large population losses can, however, leave trailing-edge populations vulnerable to extinction due to demographic stochasticity, making permanent range contraction more likely. When only a few large storms occur during high flow season, the timing of particular storms plays an outsized role in determining which migratory fish species are able to access their riverine breeding grounds and persist.

Climate change is redistributing life on Earth, with profound impacts for ecosystems and human well-being. While repeat surveys separated by multidecadal intervals can determine whether observed shifts are in the expected direction (e.g., poleward or upslope due to climate change), they do not reveal their mechanisms or time scales: whether they were gradual responses to environmental trends or punctuated responses to disturbance events. Here, we document population reductions and temporary range contractions at multiple sites resulting from drought for three Pacific salmonids at their ranges’ trailing edge. During California’s 2012 to 2016 historic multiyear drought, the 2013 to 2014 winter stood apart because rainfall was both reduced and delayed. Extremely low river flows during the breeding season (“flow–phenology mismatch”) reduced or precluded access to breeding habitat. While Chinook ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) experienced a down-river range shift, entire cohorts failed in individual tributaries (steelhead trout, O. mykiss ) and in entire watersheds (coho salmon, O. kisutch) . Salmonids returned to impacted sites in subsequent years, rescued by reserves in the ocean, life history diversity, and, in one case, a conservation broodstock program. Large population losses can, however, leave trailing-edge populations vulnerable to extinction due to demographic stochasticity, making permanent range contraction more likely. When only a few large storms occur during high flow season, the timing of particular storms plays an outsized role in determining which migratory fish species are able to access their riverine breeding grounds and persist.

The response of groundwater recharge to climate change needs to be understood to enable sustainable management of groundwater systems today and in the future, yet observations of recharge over long-enough time periods to reveal responses to climate trends are scarce. Here we present a meta-analysis of 60 years of recharge studies over the Gnangara Groundwater System of South-West Western Australia, covering a period of sustained drying consistent with climate change projections. The recharge process in the area is defined by a wet winter during which rain saturates a deep, highly permeable soil profile with very low water storage capacity. Measurements of recharge since the 1960s show near-linear reductions in potential recharge of 50%, in response to a 20% reduction in rainfall. For the best-represented land cover in the dataset (Banksia woodland), the reduction in potential recharge was closer to 70%. A simple analytical model suggests that reductions in the duration of winter, coupled with a decreased frequency of winter storms, were most responsible for these declines, and reveals the potential for nonlinear relationships between the recharge fraction (recharge/precipitation) and climatic variables such as mean storm frequency, mean storm depth, and the length of the winter wet season. Overall, results suggest that recharge declines in drying Mediterranean groundwater systems are likely to outstrip the declines in rainfall, and that leveraging existing observation networks worldwide to characterise recharge responses to changing climate is needed to overcome existing interpretation challenges created by inconsistent sites, methods and durations of recharge estimation.

The response of groundwater recharge to climate change needs to be understood to enable sustainable management of groundwater systems today and in the future, yet observations of recharge over long-enough time periods to reveal responses to climate trends are scarce. Here we present a meta-analysis of 60 years of recharge studies over the Gnangara Groundwater System of South-West Western Australia, covering a period of sustained drying consistent with climate change projections. The recharge process in the area is defined by a wet winter during which rain saturates a deep, highly permeable soil profile with very low water storage capacity. Measurements of recharge since the 1960s show near-linear reductions in potential recharge of 50%, in response to a 20% reduction in rainfall. For the best-represented land cover in the dataset (Banksia woodland), the reduction in potential recharge was closer to 70%. A simple analytical model suggests that reductions in the duration of winter, coupled with a decreased frequency of winter storms, were most responsible for these declines, and reveals the potential for nonlinear relationships between the recharge fraction (recharge/precipitation) and climatic variables such as mean storm frequency, mean storm depth, and the length of the winter wet season. Overall, results suggest that recharge declines in drying Mediterranean groundwater systems are likely to outstrip the declines in rainfall, and that leveraging existing observation networks worldwide to characterise recharge responses to changing climate is needed to overcome existing interpretation challenges created by inconsistent sites, methods and durations of recharge estimation.

AbstractIn 2020, the Australian and New Zealand flux research and monitoring network, OzFlux, celebrated its 20th anniversary by reflecting on the lessons learned through two decades of ecosystem studies on global change biology. OzFlux is a network not only for ecosystem researchers, but also for those ‘next users’ of the knowledge, information and data that such networks provide. Here, we focus on eight lessons across topics of climate change and variability, disturbance and resilience, drought and heat stress and synergies with remote sensing and modelling. In distilling the key lessons learned, we also identify where further research is needed to fill knowledge gaps and improve the utility and relevance of the outputs from OzFlux. Extreme climate variability across Australia and New Zealand (droughts and flooding rains) provides a natural laboratory for a global understanding of ecosystems in this time of accelerating climate change. As evidence of worsening global fire risk emerges, the natural ability of these ecosystems to recover from disturbances, such as fire and cyclones, provides lessons on adaptation and resilience to disturbance. Drought and heatwaves are common occurrences across large parts of the region and can tip an ecosystem's carbon budget from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source. Despite such responses to stress, ecosystems at OzFlux sites show their resilience to climate variability by rapidly pivoting back to a strong carbon sink upon the return of favourable conditions. Located in under‐represented areas, OzFlux data have the potential for reducing uncertainties in global remote sensing products, and these data provide several opportunities to develop new theories and improve our ecosystem models. The accumulated impacts of these lessons over the last 20 years highlights the value of long‐term flux observations for natural and managed systems. A future vision for OzFlux includes ongoing and newly developed synergies with ecophysiologists, ecologists, geologists, remote sensors and modellers.