• Energy Research

AbstractThe Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.NCAR.CESM2-FV2.amip' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2-FV2 climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: CAM6 (1.9x2.5 finite volume grid; 144 x 96 longitude/latitude; 32 levels; top level 2.25 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320x384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.NCAR.CESM2.historical' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2 climate model, released in 2018, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: CAM6 (0.9x1.25 finite volume grid; 288 x 192 longitude/latitude; 32 levels; top level 2.25 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320x384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.AerChemMIP.NCAR.CESM2-WACCM' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2-WACCM climate model, released in 2018, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: WACCM6 (0.9x1.25 finite volume grid; 288 x 192 longitude/latitude; 70 levels; top level 4.5e-06 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320 x 384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.NCAR.CESM2-FV2.historical' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2-FV2 climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: CAM6 (1.9x2.5 finite volume grid; 144 x 96 longitude/latitude; 32 levels; top level 2.25 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320x384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.LS3MIP.NCAR.CESM2' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2 climate model, released in 2018, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: CAM6 (0.9x1.25 finite volume grid; 288 x 192 longitude/latitude; 32 levels; top level 2.25 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320x384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.NCAR.CESM2-WACCM-FV2' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2-WACCM-FV2 climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: WACCM6 (1.9x2.5 finite volume grid; 144 x 96 longitude/latitude; 70 levels; top level 4.5e-06 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320x384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.C4MIP.NCAR.CESM2' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CESM2 climate model, released in 2018, includes the following components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: CAM6 (0.9x1.25 finite volume grid; 288 x 192 longitude/latitude; 32 levels; top level 2.25 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320x384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA (NCAR) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.