• Energy Research

Many papers that have appeared since the late 1980s have reported trends for the salinity and temperature of the upper, intermediate and deep layers within the western Mediterranean. The review of these works shows that the figures reported depend on the period of time considered. In some cases, opposite results are obtained by different studies dealing with the same period of time. These results make it difficult to assess the mean trends of these variables during the second half of the 20th century and to distinguish long-term changes from decadal and multi-decadal variability. In order to determine the origin of these discrepancies, we analyse temperature and salinity profiles from MEDAR/2002 in three areas of the western Mediterranean: the Gulf of Lions, the Balearic Islands and the Alboran Sea. We use data analysis methods that have all been tested and used previously in the literature. Our results show that the scarcity of data makes trend estimations very sensitive to the data analysis methods, questioning the robustness of such estimations and showing the suitability of systematic sampling for studying long-term changes. We attempt to provide temperature and salinity trends from 1950 to 2000 for the three aforementioned regions, which show a higher degree of uncertainty than the previous studies. Long-term temperature and salinity increases for this 50-year period are within the intervals [0.02°C, 0.19°C] and [0.01, 0.1] for deep waters, [0.06°C, 0.38°C] and [0.01, 0.26] for LIW, and [0, 0.45°C] for the upper layers. No salinity change has been observed for the upper layer.

The analysis of a 24-year time series of Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts collected in the Balearic Channels (1996–2019) has allowed detecting and quantifying long-term changes in water mass properties in the Western Mediterranean. For the complete period, the intermediate waters have experienced warming and salting at rates of 1.4°C/100yr and 0.3–0.6/100yr for the Western Intermediate Water, and 1°C/100yr and 0.3–0.4/100yr for the Levantine Intermediate Water. The density of these two water masses has not changed. The deep waters, defined as those denser than 29.1 kg/m3, showed positive trends in temperature, salinity, and density (0.8°C/100yr, 0.2/100yr, and 0.02 kg.m–3/100yr, respectively). The high temporal variability of the upper layer makes the detection of long-term changes more difficult. Nevertheless, combining CTD data with temperature data from the oceanographic station at L’Estartit and simulated data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, it can be established that the Atlantic Water increased its temperature at a rate of 2.1–2.8°C/100yr and likely its salinity at a rate of 0.6/100yr. The water column absorbed heat at a rate equivalent to 1–1.2 W/m2. All these trends are much higher than those reported in previous works (more than double in some cases). The warming of the water column produced an increase in the thermosteric component of sea level. However, this increase was compensated by the decrease in the halosteric component. Besides these changes, other alterations related to the Western Mediterranean Transition have been observed over shorter periods. The temperature and salinity of the intermediate waters increased before the winter of 2004/2005 and then the temperature and salinity of the deep waters increased dramatically in 2005. The density of the deep water reached values unprecedented before 2005. Deep and intermediate waters were uplifted by the presence of such dense deep waters. The arrival of warmer and saltier intermediate waters from the Eastern Mediterranean is also observed, mainly after 2010.

AbstractSea level rise is challenging for coastal communities and land management decision makers. Understanding the patterns of regional variations at different temporal and spatial scales is key to implement adaptation plans that mitigate the local impacts of sea level rise. In this study, in situ observations from 14 tide gauges were complemented with satellite altimetry data to assess seasonality, multidecadal variability and long‐term trends in mean sea level around the Western Iberian Coast (WIC) and the Portuguese archipelagos (Azores and Madeira). Results show varying spatial seasonal patterns between regions, with minimum (maximum) sea level observed in April (September) at the islands and minimum (maximum) observed in July (November) at the WIC. The influence of coastal upwelling on the seasonal mean sea level variations was detected over mainland. Although the influence of atmospheric patterns was observed on sea level inter‐annual variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) showed a greater correlation with the sea level inter‐decadal patterns. Finally, the trend analysis confirmed widespread sea level rise along the mainland and around the islands, which has intensified in recent decades. The regions of La Coruña and Cascais showed trends that were similar to the global average sea level rise since 1993, but the mainland regional average pointed to lower rates of rise (2.00 ± 0.06 mm/year). This work reinforces the need for long‐term monitoring networks of sea level, ensuring the vertical stability of instruments and platforms. The implementation of regional adaptation plans to sea level rise is deeply dependent on high quality information.

The Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO, Spanish Institute of Oceanography) has maintained different monitoring programs in the Spanish Mediterranean waters (Western Mediterranean) since 1992. All these monitoring programs were unified in 2007 under the current program RADMED (series temporales de datos oceanográficos en el Mediterráneo), which is devoted to the in situ multidisciplinary sampling of the water column of coastal and open-sea waters by means of periodic oceanographic campaigns. These campaigns, together with a network of tide-gauges, are part of the IEO Observing system (IEOOS). In some cases, the temperature and salinity time series collected in the frame of these monitoring programs are now more than 30 years long, whereas sea level time series date to the beginning of the 1940s. This information has been complemented with international databases and has been analyzed in numerous works by the Grupo mediterráneo de Cambio Climático (GCC; Mediterranean Climate Change Group) for more than 20 years. These works have been devoted to the detection and quantification of the changes that climate change is producing on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the Spanish Mediterranean waters. In this work, we review the results obtained by the GCC since 2005 in relation to the changes in the physical properties of the sea: water column temperature, salinity, and density, heat content, mixed layer depth, and sea level. Time series and results are updated from the last works, and the reliability of the existing time series for the detection of climatologies and long-term trends are analyzed. Furthermore, the different sources of uncertainty in the estimation of linear trends are considered in the present work. Besides this review and update of the results obtained from the data collected in the frame of the IEOOS, we conduct a review of the existing monitoring capabilities from other institutions in the Spanish Mediterranean waters and a review of results dealing with climate change in the Spanish Mediterranean obtained by such institutions. In particular, we include a review of the results obtained by SOCIB (Servicio de Observación y Predicción Costero de las Islas Baleares; Balearic Islands costal observing and forecasting system) in relation to the study of marine heat waves and the warming of the sea surface, and the results corresponding to the intense warming of the Catalan continental shelf at L’Estartit oceanographic station. All these results evidence that the surface Spanish Mediterranean waters are warming up at a rate higher than that affecting the global ocean (>2 °C/100 years). This warming and a salinity increase are also observed along the whole water column. Marine heat waves are increasing their intensity, frequency, and duration since 1982, and coastal sea level is increasing at a rate of 2.5 mm/yr. The salinity increase seems to have compensated for the warming, at least at surface and intermediate waters where no significant trends have been detected for the density. This could also be the reason for the lack of significant trends in the evolution of the mixed layer depth. All these results highlight the importance of monitoring the water column and the necessity of maintaining in situ sampling programs, which are essential for the study of changes that are occurring throughout the Spanish Mediterranean waters.

Under current levels of global warming most demersal species in the Northeast Atlantic are experiencing tropicalization, meridionalization or borealization of their distributions, leading to profound changes in demersal communities. We explore these changes using the Community Weighted Mean Temperature (CWMT), an index to link the thermal preference of demersal fish communities and temperature. The CWMT is calculated as the summation of the mean temperature of each fish species distribution weighted by its relative abundance in the community. The relative abundance is based on the community composition data obtained by the International Bottom Trawl Surveys (IBTS) in the Southern Bay of Biscay between 1983 and 2015. Our analyses show that the CWMT responds to the actual temperature of the water column reproducing its space–time trends in the study area: (i) an increase from SW to NE, towards the inner Bay of Biscay, (ii) a decrease with depth, except in the SW area characterized by an intense upwelling, (iii) a general increase along the time series. Applying a k-means classification to the CWMT data we identified warm-, temperate- and cold-communities over the shelf and slope and their spatial changes in the last decades. The area occupied by warm communities has expanded 268.4 km2/ yr since the 80 s, while the cold communities have retracted at a speed of − 155.4 km2/yr. The CWMT was able to capture the community dynamics in relation to environmental temperature at different temporal and spatial scales, highlighting the potential of this index to explore and anticipate the effects of climate change in demersal communities under different scenarios of global warming. 2,695

The deep waters in the Western Mediterranean (> 600 m) are the result of mixing between the two water masses above it (Atlantic Water, 0–200 m and Levantine Intermediate Water, 200–600 m) and heat and buoyancy losses in late winter. Deep waters in the Western Mediterranean have undergone a continuous warming during the second half of the twentieth century and initially it was hypothesized that this had been caused by the warming of the contributing water masses, very likely linked to global warming. Nevertheless, no clear signals of warming have been detected in the intermediate layers and no warming trends were detected in the upper layer before the 1980s. This fact suggested that the cause of deep water warming could be linked to river damming and the consequent salinity increase, instead of to an increase of the heat absorbed by the upper ocean, as in other parts of the world ocean. In this work we use the data base MEDATLAS and data from more recent monitoring programs to construct the longest temperature and salinity time series ever analysed in the Western Mediterranean (1900 to 2008). These time series show that both the upper and intermediate layers have warmed throughout the twentieth century. Long term and decadal variability in the upper layer correlate with surface air temperature in the northern hemisphere and heat absorbed by the upper North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting that the time series analysed in this work reflect the present heat absorption of the oceans in the context of global warming. The present data set highlights the importance of monitoring programs and provides a proxy for the study of climate change. Sí