• Energy Research

The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply, like many others, is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent, this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources, taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers, available technologies, and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios, up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas, but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers, which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition, authors’ forecasts, through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region, can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development, taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as identifying areas of technology and energy infrastructure stimulation.

The beginning of the 21st century for the fuel and energy complexes of most countries is characterized as a period of active restructuring and a fundamental shift in developmental priorities. The basis of these changes is technological development. Industry 4.0 technologies have particular importance in achieving maximum optimization of production processes. In the same way, they are applicable in establishing effective interaction between the energy sector and other sectors of the economy. The authors outline an approach to assessing the country’s fuel and energy balance state through the selected properties: sustainability, accessibility, efficiency, adaptability and reliability. Hence, a model of the fuel and energy complex was created on the example of the Russian Federation, considering the country’s territorial and functional division. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of the influence level of external challenges in conjunction with the accompanying technological development. The mathematical model allowed forecasting changes in the properties of the energy system. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecast the state of the fuel and energy balance. The results of the study are useful in compiling scenarios for the regional and entire development of the fuel and energy complex. Further model improvements should include an expansion of the number of counted industries and their relations.