• Energy Research

Heatwaves (HW) are a growing climate change-related risk affecting people's lives every year. A consensus exists about the magnification of this phenomena under climate change; however, less is known about their regional-to-local evolution characteristics' undermining appropriate policy and preparedness actions.This study investigates, from 1951 to 2019, regional changes in the occurrence and characteristics of HWs over peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands (PSBI), highly exposed to climate change. State-of-the-art high-resolution observations provided by the SPAIN02 gridded data set are used for this purpose. Our results show an indisputable magnification of the HW phenomena but with relevant regional differences in the evolution of their characteristics. HWs occur two times more frequently inland, while most intense events take place in coastal areas. More extreme HWs in terms of frequency, maximum intensity, duration, and spatial extent are identified, rather than a progressive intensification in time affecting all HWs population. In the last decades, high frequencies are 8 times more likely, unprecedented high intensities are registered, the yearly maximum spatial extent is larger than ever and the probability to have a long-duration event has doubled. All of this is in the context of a longer HW season, increasing at a rate of about 4 days/decade, particularly in its onset. About 75% of the most severe and impactful HWs occurred after 1985. The most severe HWs, generally, are found not to be the most harmful to human health. This study highlights the importance of detailed knowledge of the spatiotemporal characteristics of HWs to accurately inform local practice for the effective design and implementation of adaptation plans.

Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme events magnified under climate change with critical implications for the human and environmental systems they impact. These phenomena are generally investigated as a large-scale effect over extensive regions. However, their regional-to-local characteristics and trends are responsible for the specific effects on local communities. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics and evolution of regional HWs covering the 1950 to 2021 period across different European climates, central Europe (CE), France (FR), and the Iberian Peninsula (IP), including an analysis of the local and remote relationship between summer heat periods and winter-spring precipitation conditions. Our results confirm the general increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of the HW phenomena over the three domains but point out their uneven evolution under climate change. While a larger frequency increase in the number of heat periods affects IP and FR, it is over CE, where the largest frequency change is observed in the most recent decades. Over north-western FR and CE the most intense HW events have recently registered, further over CE HWs’ long-lasting durations between five to six days have tripled from the sixties to recent decades. It is indeed over the latter that a substantial increase in human exposure to HW phenomena is observed. Probably, the unalike progressions are related to the proven differential rate of warming between the mean and hottest days at northern and southern European domains and the influence of soil conditions over IP on the development of summer heat periods over FR and CE.

AbstractThe impact of heatwaves (HWs) on human health is a topic of growing interest due to the global magnification of these phenomena and their substantial socio‐economic impacts. As for other countries of Southern Europe, Spain is a region highly affected by heat and its increase under climate change. This is observed in the mean values and the increasing incidence of extreme weather events and associated mortality. Despite the vast knowledge on this topic, it remains unclear whether specific types and characteristics of HW are particularly harmful to the population and whether this shows a regional interdependency. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between HW characteristics and mortality in 12 Spanish cities. We used separated time series analysis in each city applying a quasi‐Poisson regression model and distributed lag linear and non‐linear models. Results show an increase in the mortality risk under HW conditions in the cities with a lower HW frequency. However, this increase exhibits remarkable differences across the cities under study not showing any general pattern in the HW characteristics‐mortality association. This relationship is shown to be complex and strongly dependent on the local properties of each city pointing out the crucial need to examine and understand on a local scale the HW characteristics and the HW‐mortality relationship for an efficient design and implementation of prevention measures.

AbstractThe field campaign ‘Convective and Orographically‐induced Precipitation Study’ (COPS) was performed in south‐western Germany and eastern France in summer 2007. Within the COPS context this study focused on the process chain of soil moisture, surface fluxes, conditions of the convective boundary layer (CBL), and convection‐related parameters.The results were different for valley and mountain sites. Only in the Rhine valley did the ratios of sensible and latent heat to the net radiation at the surface, H0/Q0 and E0/Q0 respectively, reveal a weak dependence on soil moisture. H0/Q0 was lower and E0/Q0 was higher at higher soil moisture. The correlation of the diurnal increase of the equivalent potential temperature, Θe, with the energy supplied by H0 and E0 was found to be lower for higher surface inhomogeneity. Furthermore, only a weak dependence of the CBL depth on the sensible surface heat flux was found for valley sites and was non‐existent for the mountain crest.The convective indices in the whole COPS domain were found to depend on Θe in the CBL. The absolute values of conditional and potential instability are not necessarily the decisive parameters for convection to occur, because highest instability was observed in the Rhine valley while convection was preferably initiated over the mountains. Convective inhibition (CIN) was positively correlated with the capping strength and negatively with the CBL height: the higher the CBL, the lower the upper threshold of CIN. The frequency of low CIN was higher in the Black Forest mountains than in the Rhine valley, which facilitates convection initiation over the mountain sites. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

The Mediterranean Sea is a climate change hotspot since it provides a magnified warming signal. Heavily populated areas (e.g., Spanish Mediterranean coasts) are vulnerable to negative socio-economic impacts. This is particularly important for climate-related economic sectors such as coastal tourism, the focus of this paper. To promote a sustainable development of these activities and provide key information to stakeholders, it is necessary to anticipate changes in climate. Thus, it is fundamental to use climate modelling tools which account for air-sea interactions, which largely determine the climate signal of the Mediterranean coasts. In this paper, a set of regional air-sea coupled climate model simulations from Med-CORDEX are used to (i) study the climatic conditions on the Spanish Mediterranean coasts in the next decade(s) and (ii) to assess the possibility of extending the coastal tourist season towards spring-fall. We show that climate conditions are getting warmer and drier in the area, especially in summer. Heat waves and heavy precipitation will become more frequent. Thermal discomfort will increase in summer and summer conditions are extending towards spring and fall. Our work remarks the urgent need of adaptation measures of the sector, including the extension of the high tourist season to spring-fall, especially in the long term. We make a special effort to compile a set of adaptation measures for stakeholders. This study is part of the project ECOAZUL-MED, which aims to create a climate service tool to optimize the management of relevant sectors of the blue economy in the Spanish Mediterranean coasts. This publication is part of the project ECOAZUL-MED (PTQ2020-011287), funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and by “European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR”. C. Gutiérrez and W. Cabos were supported by the National Ministry of Science “Proyectos de Generación de Conocimiento 2021” grant number PID2021-128656OB-I00. The Mediterranean Centre for Environmental Studies (CEAM) is partly supported by Generalitat Valenciana. The contribution of Samira Khodayar Pardo was supported by the program Generació Talent of Generalitat Valenciana (CIDEGENT/2018/017).