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AbstractThe potential impacts of future climate scenarios on water balance and flow regime are presented and discussed for a temporary river system in southern Italy. Different climate projections for the future (2030–2059) and the recent conditions (1980–2009) were investigated. A hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate water balance at the basin scale and streamflow in a number of river sections under various climate change scenarios, based on different combinations of global and regional models (global circulation models and regional climate models). The impact on water balance components was quantified at the basin and subbasin levels as deviation from the baseline (1980–2009), and the flow regime alteration under changing climate was estimated using a number of hydrological indicators. An increase in mean temperature for all months between 0.5–2.4 °C and a reduction in precipitation (by 4–7%) was predicted for the future. As a consequence, a decline of blue water (7–18%) and total water yield (11–28%) was estimated. Although the river type classification remains unvaried, the flow regime distinctly moves towards drier conditions and the divergence from the current status increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I‐D (ie, intermittent‐dry) and E (ephemeral). Hydrological indicators showed a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations, an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of extreme low flow conditions. A reduction of snowfall in the mountainous part of the basin and an increase in potential evapotranspiration was also estimated (4–4.4%). Finally, the paper analyses the implications of the climate change for river ecosystems and for River Basin Management Planning. The defined quantitative estimates of water balance alteration could support the identification of priorities that should be addressed in upcoming years to set water‐saving actions.

Plant-soil feedback (PSF) describes the process whereby plant species modify the soil environment, which subsequently impacts the growth of the same or another plant species. Our aim was to explore PSF by two maize varieties (a landrace and a hybrid variety) and three arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) species (Funneliformis mosseae, Claroideoglomus etunicatum, Gigaspora margarita, and the mixture). We carried out a pot experiment with a conditioning and a feedback phase to determine PSF with different species of AMF and with a non-mycorrhizal control. Sterilized soil was conditioned separately by each variety, with or without AMF; in the feedback phase, each soil community was used to grow each in its "home" soil and in the "away" soil. Plant performance was assessed as shoot biomass, phosphorus (P) concentration and P content, and fungal performance was assessed as mycorrhizal colonization and hyphal length density. Both maize varieties were differentially influenced by AMF in the conditioning phase. In the feedback phase, PSF was generally negative for non-mycorrhizal plants or when plants were colonized by G. margarita, whereas PSF was positive in the other three AMF treatments. When plants were grown on home soil, hyphal length density was larger than on away soil. We conclude that different maize varieties can strengthen positive plant-soil feedback for themselves through beneficial mutualists for themselves, but not across the maize varieties.

The potential impacts of climate change on human health in sub-Saharan Africa are wide-ranging, complex, and largely adverse. The region's Indigenous peoples are considered to be at heightened risk given their relatively poor health outcomes, marginal social status, and resource-based livelihoods; however, little attention has been given to these most vulnerable of the vulnerable. This paper contributes to addressing this gap by taking a bottom-up approach to assessing health vulnerabilities to climate change in two Batwa Pygmy communities in rural Uganda. Rapid Rural Appraisal and PhotoVoice field methods complemented by qualitative data analysis were used to identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health outcomes, describe determinants of sensitivity at multiple scales, and characterize adaptive capacity of Batwa health systems. The findings stress the importance of human drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity and the need to address social determinants of health in order to reduce the potential disease burden of climate change.

The potential for global forest cover The restoration of forested land at a global scale could help capture atmospheric carbon and mitigate climate change. Bastin et al. used direct measurements of forest cover to generate a model of forest restoration potential across the globe (see the Perspective by Chazdon and Brancalion). Their spatially explicit maps show how much additional tree cover could exist outside of existing forests and agricultural and urban land. Ecosystems could support an additional 0.9 billion hectares of continuous forest. This would represent a greater than 25% increase in forested area, including more than 200 gigatonnes of additional carbon at maturity.Such a change has the potential to store an equivalent of 25% of the current atmospheric carbon pool. Science , this issue p. 76 ; see also p. 24

AbstractAlthough canopy height has long been a focus of interest in ecology, it has remained difficult to study at large spatial scales. Recently, satellite‐borne LiDAR equipment produced the first systematic high resolution maps of vegetation height worldwide. Here we show that this new resource reveals three marked modes in tropical canopy height ~40, ~12, and ~2 m corresponding to forest, savanna, and treeless landscapes. The distribution of these modes is consistent with the often hypothesized forest‐savanna bistability and suggests that both states can be stable in areas with a mean annual precipitation between ~1,500 and ~2,000 mm. Although the canopy height states correspond largely to the much discussed tree cover states, there are differences, too. For instance, there are places with savanna‐like sparse tree cover that have a forest‐like high canopy, suggesting that rather than true savanna, those are thinned relicts of forest. This illustrates how complementary sets of remotely sensed indicators may provide increasingly sophisticated ways to study ecological phenomena at a global scale.

Escalating energy costs are an increasing concern for South Asian farmers growing rice and wheat in rotation. Millions of people in the IGP (Indo-Gangetic Plains) depend on this cropping system for food and income security. CT (conservation tillage) practices, including mechanical BP (bed planting), PTOS (power-tiller operated seeding), and ST (strip tillage), are advocated by donors and development organizations as profitable, high yielding, and energy-efficient alternatives to TT (traditional tillage). However, most studies on the EUE (energy input use efficiency) of CT originate from researcher-controlled and on-station experiments. Comparatively little information is available on the EUE of CT practices as farmers apply them in their own fields, and under their own management decisions. This research responds to this gap, and analyzes EUE of each of these three CT options, compared to TT, by surveying 328 rice-wheat farmers in north-western Bangladesh. Concentrating on wheat production, we employed a non-parametric benchmarking technique involving slack-based measures of technical efficiency, along with a fractional regression model to identify and compute the wasteful use of energy. PTOS achieved the highest EUE score (0.92), followed closely by BP and ST (both 0.91), whereas TT (0.68) was significantly (p <0.001) different and lower than the CT practices.

AbstractClimate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.