• Energy Research
• 13. Climate action close
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A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

In 2016, 1,100 million people lack access to electricity, mainly in developing countries in Africa, Asia and South America. In these countries, there is a large potential for hydroelectric production through off-grid microgrids, although not fully exploited. This work assesses the long-term sustainability of off-grid microhydro projects operating in rural indigenous communities. More specifically, four sustainability dimensions are analyzed: environmental, technical, socioeconomic and institutional, and specific indicators are proposed for each one. In particular, 6 micro-hydroelectric power plants in southern Venezuela are used as case studies. The data gathering includes surveys, technical visits and interviews with technicians, engineers and beneficiaries. Results show that the institutional dimension and, in particular, alignment between involved institutions has been fundamental for the long-term sustainability. Indeed, appropriate institutional alignment is the key to strengthening the impacts on: (i) the environmental dimension, minimizing emissions and impacts on local ecosystems; (ii) the technical dimension, improving adequacy and reliability of technologies; and (iii) the socioeconomic dimension, making efficient use of electricity to enhance education, health and productivity. Lessons learned and conclusions of this research can significantly contribute to improve future projects, in particular to the 22 included in the electrification plans of Venezuela in coming years. Peer Reviewed

Historical time trends indicate that both carbon and energy intensity have declined in the United States over the last several decades, while economic performance, as measured by per capita GSP, has improved. This observation indicates that it may be possible to reduce carbon intensity without a reduction in economic performance. This paper assesses using panel analysis, the empirical relationship between carbon emissions intensity and economic performance, and examines the direction of causality between the two variables. Data for the analysis covered 48 states, excluding Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington DC, from 1980 to 2000. The results indicate significant bi-directional relationship between carbon emissions intensity and state economic performance, both using an aggregate indicator for carbon emissions intensity, decomposed using Laspeyres indexes and disaggregated by sector. This implies that it should be possible to implement statewide and sector-specific policies to reduce energy and carbon intensity and at the same time improve economic performance.

Abstract Among natural gas producing nations, there has been some concern about how the Asia Pacific will meet future demand for energy. We argue that natural gas, both regional and global, will play a vital role. Estimates of potential gas consumption in the region are analyzed and used to develop consensus projections to 2030. These consumption profiles are compared with gas supply estimates including indigenous, pipeline and LNG for the Asia Pacific market. From this analytical framework, we find that demand will be sufficiently large to accommodate supplies from diverse sources including North America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and the Asia Pacific itself. An important policy implication is that gas producing and consuming nations should benefit from promoting gas trade and not be concerned about a situation of potential lack of demand coupled with oversupply.

Abstract Using country level panel data from East Asia over the period 1998–2011, this paper examines the implications of international production fragmentation-induced intermediate goods trade on the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution. The paper focuses on the interaction effect between energy consumption and trade in intermediate goods on carbon emission. The empirical results presented suggest that international trade in intermediate goods decreases the positive impact on carbon emission of energy consumption. When compared with the trade in final goods, intermediate goods trade contributes to a greater decrease in carbon pollution resulting from energy consumption. These results confirm that the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution in East Asia is significantly affected by international production fragmentation-induced trade in intermediate goods. The results presented in this paper have some important policy implications.

Abstract By the end of 2006, there were about 24 million total passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly three times as many as in 2001. To slow the increase in energy consumption by these cars, China began implementing passenger car fuel economy standards in two phases beginning in 2005. Phase 1 fuel consumption limits resulted in a sales-weighted new passenger car average fuel consumption decrease of about 11%, from just over 9 l/100 km to approximately 8 l/100 km, from 2002 to 2006. However, we project that upon completion of Phase 2 limits in 2009, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in China may drop only by an additional 1%, to approximately 7.9 l/100 km. This is due to the fact that a majority of cars sold in 2006 already meets the stricter second phase fuel consumption limits. Simultaneously, other trends in the Chinese vehicle market, including increases in average curb weight and increases in standards-exempt imported vehicles, threaten to offset the efficiency gains achieved from 2002 to 2006. It is clear that additional efforts and policies beyond Phase 2 fuel consumption limits are required to slow and, ultimately, reverse the trend of rapidly rising energy consumption and greenhouse gases from China's transportation sector.

Abstract The United States (US) Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Mandatory Reporting Program (GHGRP) is designed to collect accurate and timely facility-level emissions data that might be used by policy makers to support sound climate policy decisions in the future. After reviewing the US Inventory and the expected improvements under GHGRP, we find that the benefits of GHGRP are minimal and quite possibly zero while the cost of implementation is relatively high, that the stated goal of reducing emissions uncertainty is not met by the program in its current form, and that the additional emissions data to be collected is likely not needed given the ongoing non-committal environment of US GHG regulation. Our review also highlights the need for EPA to make its US Inventory GHG models accessible to the public, which would enable a more thorough review of its assumptions and methods by the broader scientific community.

Abstract We present the results of a large-scale analysis on how on-shore and off-shore wind turbines affect the property prices of nearby single family residential and vacation homes in Denmark. We find that on-shore wind turbines negatively affect the price of surrounding properties to a distance of three kilometers. The negative impact increases with the number of wind turbines at a declining marginal rate but declines with distance. In the case of off-shore wind turbine farms, we do not find a significant effect of having an off-shore wind farm in view from a property itself or from the nearest beach, likely because the closest off-shore turbine is 9 km from the closest traded home. We illustrate the policy relevance of our findings by providing maps showing how the marginal impact of a wind turbine varies across the landscape according to the spatial distribution of home density and homes values in the proximity of a wind turbine site. The results suggest that ceteris paribus, wind turbine farms should be built quite far away from residential areas with turbines gathered in larger wind farms rather than installed as single turbines.