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  • Energy Research
  • 2. Zero hunger
  • 11. Sustainability
  • 12. Responsible consumption
  • 1. No poverty
  • Persian

  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Mansour Mahinizadeh; Mohammad Ali Feizpour; Maryam Abedi;

    Importance of renewable-energy resources because of scarcity, greenhouse-gas emissions, and their fundamental roles in production and sustainable development, has made governments to reduce energy consumption and improving energy efficiency. In this regard, targeting subsidies rule was running in Iran since 2010. Since energy additionaly to labor and capital is one of the important inputs in production, running this rule with increasing energy price, affects manufacturing industries due to the type of energy and industry. In this research, the impacts of price liberalization on electricity efficiency have evaluated. Partial adjustment model, generalized method of moment and energy intensity measure are applied to this purpose. Data are collected from Statistical Center of Iran during 1995-2013. The research innovations are: using a partial adjustment model in evaluating efficiency, assessment whole industrial groups, and the period of research. The results show that in 95 percent level of confidence, the Iranian manufacturing industries are significantly flexible for changing the use of electricity. But the electricity efficiency has gotten worse after running the rule. In general, apposite of expectations, targeting subsidies rule has failed to improve electricity efficiency at least in short run.

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    Authors: Hossein Amiri; Lesyan Saedpour; Abas Kalantary;

    This paper evaluates the threshold effect of income on carbon dioxide emissions intensity in the MENA countries using panel smooth transition regression model. For this purpose, the variables of financial development, openness, energy intensity, income per capital and carbon dioxide emissions intensity over the period 1980 to 2011 are employed. While the results strongly indicated the existence of a nonlinear relationship, considering one transition function and two threshold parameters is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables. The empirical results show that the slope parameter in which the speed of adjustment represent from one regime to another one is estimated equivalent of 78762, and two threshold parameters estimated 1176 $ and 11614 $ based on income per capita respectively. The variables of openness and income per capital lead to reduce carbon dioxide emissions intensity in both regimes in which the impact of income per capital in first regime and openness in second regime is greater than another regime. Although, financial development leads to slight increase in carbon dioxide emissions intensity in the first regime, but in the second regime leads to decreases it.

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    Authors: Abbas Ali Keshtkar (PhD); Shahryar Semnani (MD); Gholamreza Roshandel (MD); Maryam Aboomardani (PhD); +6 Authors

    Background and Objective: Colorectal cancer is the third common malignancy in the world. Personal habits including life style and nutrition have been proposed as risk factors of colorectal cancer. We conducted this study to assess the nutritional characteristics in colorectal cancer patients in Golestan province of Iran. Materials and Methods: This case-control study was done on 47 colorectal cancer cases, diagnosed during 2004-05 and 47 healthy controls. A questionnaire containing socio-demographic and nutritional characteristics (FFQ) was filled for each of the participants. Chi square test was used to assess the relationship between variables. Results: In each of the two groups, 40.4% were females and 59.6% were males. The mean±SD age of age in cases and controls were 52.4±13.4 and 52.1±13.1 years, respectively. Total energy expenditure of higher than 1837.5 Kcal/ day was significantly related to colorectal cancer (OR=3.8 95% CI: 1.2-11.3). Colorectal cancer risk was higher in individual with frying cooking method (OR=3 95% CI: 0. 8-11.1). The risk of colorectal cancer was 6.5 times higher in individuals with fat consumption of higher than 118.5 grams/day (95% CI: 1.5-28.8). No significant relationship was seen between vegetables consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer. Conclusion: This study showed that high total energy expenditure, high fat consumption and using frying method for cooking are risk factors of colorectal cancer in Golestan prevince in Nothern of Iran.

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    Authors: Naghmeh Soofizadeh; Sayyed Mohsen Hosseini; Mas'oud Tabari;

    Pinus brutiais one of the most important species respect to low ecological needs and tolerance against winter drought and summer heat. This species is used in degraded ecosystems and dry and semidry shrub lands in Iran. It is an important species for urban green space as well. This experiment was performed as complete randomized and factorial design with three treatments, sowing date (autumn and winter), irrigation periods (every 2 and 4 days) and weed mechanical control (every 7 and 14 days) with four replications and 15 vases (per replications) in Zaghe nursery in Khorramabad city. At the end of the first growing season, measurements included biomass and vitality rate. Results showed that the effect of treatments on amount of biomass was significant. The maximum of biomass was showed in winter sowing, every 2-days irrigation and every 7-days weeding. Effect of irrigation on shoot/root ratio was significant and maximum rate concluded in every 4-days irrigation but conversely effect of sowing date and weed control and composition of treatments were not significant. Effect of treatments including, sowing date, weed control and composition of treatments on vitality rate were significant. Maximum vitality achieved at autumn sowing with every 2-days irrigation and 7-days weeding. Based on the results, for decreasing of nursery costs, the duration of irrigation can be extended and winter sowing can be replaced by autumn.

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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ تحقیقات جنگل و صنوبر...arrow_drop_down
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    Authors: Laya Olfat; Maghsoud Amiri; Jahanyar BamdadSoufi; Mahsa Pishdar;

    Abstract: Fuzzy DEA methods have been introduced to deal with the fuzziness of variables. Although, some of these variables are affected by uncertainty and also information granularity, the membership function of fuzzy set is certain and this contrasts with the fuzzy concept as a whole. Type-2 fuzzy sets are introduced because of this and their membership functions have the nature of fuzzy type-1. The calculations of type-2 fuzzy sets are very complicated. However, interval type-2 fuzzy sets which have the characteristics of type-2 fuzzy sets and do not add any complexity to the calculation process can be applied to deal with such a problem. That is why in this paper, it is explored that how an extension of interval type-2 fuzzy dynamic network DEA approach helps to measure airports’ sustainability. Sustainable airports play an irrefutable role in making transportation systems sustainable. Such an integrative approach in DEA models is unprecedented. So, this extension of DEA is valuable from both technical and conceptual aspects. Introduction: Airports are an essential component of aviation (Knudsen, 2004). The importance of airports becomes clearer when it comes to the fact that aviation traffic is more than before and, therefore, sustainability becomes difficult. While, various studies have suggested that the sustainability of airports is essential to improve the performance of these systems, improve the living conditions of the public and increase the airport's credit (Brian, 2005; ICAO, 2012; SAGA, 2015). Paying attention to the concept of sustainability in managing airports has various benefits, such as increased competitiveness by purifying activities, reducing operating costs, and reducing costs for life cycle of materials and equipment, better use of assets, utilization newer and better technologies, reducing asset development costs, getting more support from the community, improving working conditions and, as a result, improving employee productivity, reducing environmental risks, health, safety and promotion (SAGA, 2015; Bretzke, 2013; TRB, 2012; ACARE, 2011; Too, Earl, 2010). For the reasons mentioned, it can be said that it is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of the passenger airports of the country. Certainly, before adopting any approach, the current situation must be assessed correctly. Various methods have been used to evaluate performance, but Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used methods (Azizi et al., 2004). Data envelopment analysis is a functional and nonparametric method that allows consideration of various components as input and output or intermediate activities (Bray et al., 2015). However, no research has been found to determine the performance of airports in accordance with the principles of sustainability in Iran. Materials and Methods: Type-2 fuzzy Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to assess the performance of Iran’s passenger airports based on sustainability development. By use of Dynamic Network Data Envelopment Analysis, one can see how the different parts of a decision unit can be linked. It also shows how the past performance of a decision-making unit can affect its current performance. In this type of data envelopment analysis, the function of the decision-making unit is transmitted through time-based intermediaries to the next period. Thus via using dynamic data envelopment analysis method, it is possible to consider the activities of different parts of a decision unit and also the efficiency with respect to time periods. However, the point is that in the real world, due to the increasing socioeconomic complexity and the inherent ambiguity of human thinking, there is no possibility of precise determination of many of the components. For this reason, type-2 fuzzy theory is employed that its membership function is the fuzzy of the first type. Since the complexity of calculations while using type-2 fuzzy set is high, interval type-2 fuzzy is applied. The 20 most popular passenger airports in Iran are selected to evaluate their performance in accordance with the principles of sustainability principles and via the help of the developed DEA model. Results and Discussion: Results of investigation show that Larestan Airport is the most efficient one among all and the last rank is allocated to the Isfahan airport considering fixed return to scale while in variable return to scale, Shiraz airport gets the last rank. The efficiency intervals of airports such as Larestan, Gorgan, Rasht and Yazd have little difference in two modes of return to scale. For this reason, we can say that there is no significant function inefficiency about these airports. But this difference is more evident in the efficiency of airports such as Mashhad. Airports, whose performance is generally low or are inefficient, are able to provide a groundbreaking improvement with appropriate benchmarking. Since airports operate in different conditions, difference in climatic conditions and the in workforce etc. should be considered while benchmarking. References ACARE (Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe) (2011). "Flight path 2050 Europe’s Vision for Aviation". Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Azizi, H., Kordrostami, S., & Amirteimoori, A. (2015). "Slacks-based measures of efficiency in imprecise data envelopment analysis: An approach based on data envelopment analysis with double frontiers". Computers & Industrial Engineering, 79, 42-51. Azizi, H., Jafari Shaerlar, A., & Farzipoor Saen, R. (2014). "A new Approach for Considering a Dual-Role Factor in Supplier Selection Problem: DEA with efficient and inefficient frontiers". Journal of production and operation management. 6(2), 129-144. Bray, S., Caggiani, l., & Ottomanelli, M. (2015). "Measuring transport systems efficiency under uncertainty by fuzzy sets theory based Data Envelopment Analysis: theoretical and practical comparison with traditional DEA model". Transportation Research Procedia, 5, 186 – 200. Bretzke, W.R. (2013). "Service Quality Versus Sustainability: A New Conflict of Objectives". Information Technology in Environmental Engineering Part of the series Environmental Science and Engineering, Springer, 179-190. Brian, E. (2005). "The Modern Airport Terminal: New Approaches to Airport Architecture". 2nd Edition, Taylor & Francis. ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) (2012). "Sustainable Future for Aviation: ICAO Rio+20 Global Initiative". http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/icao-publishes-booklet-for-rio20-decision makers (accessed 14.09.2015). Knudsen, F.B. (2004). "Defining Sustainability in the Aviation Sector". Brussell: Eurocontrol Experimental Centre. SAGA (Sustainable Aviation Guidance Alliance) (2015). "Learn". http://www.airportsustainability.org/learn, (accessed 16.12.2015). Transport Research Board (TRB) (2011). "Critical Issues in Aviation and the Environment 2011". Washington, DC: TRB. Too, L., & Earl, L. (2010). "Public transport service quality and sustainable development: a community stakeholder perspective". Sustainable Development. 18(1), 51-61.

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    Authors: Rooholla Moradi; Alireza Koocheki; Mehdi Nassiri; Hamed Mansoori;

    Introduction: The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will continue to increase and cause climatic change (16). These conditions are also true for Iran. The three greenhouse gases associated with agriculture are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The three GHGs associated with agriculture CO2, CH4, and N2O differ in their effectiveness in trapping heat and in their turnover rates in the atmosphere. This environmental change will have serious impacts on different growth and development processes of crops. Increasing temperature could affect physiological processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and partitioning of photoassimilates. Farmers are not able to change or manage the climatic conditions, but some factors such as soil, water, seed and agricultural practices can be managed to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change (32). Mitigation and adaptation are two known ways for reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Mitigation strategies are associated with decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through management practices such as reducing chemical fertilizer application, mechanization, increasing carbon storage in agroecosystems, planting biofuel crops and moving towards organic farming (42), etc. Material and Methods: This study was carried out at the experimental field of the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad in 2011 and was repeated in 2012. The Research Station (36°16´N, 59°36´E) is located at about 985 m a.s.l. Average temperature and precipitation rate of the research station in two years are shown in Figure. 1. The three-factor experiment was set up in a strip-split-plot arranged in a randomized complete block design with three replications. The experimental treatments were tillage systems (conventional and reduced tillage) and residual management (remaining and leaving of maize residual) assigned to main plots and different levels of N fertilizer (0, 150, 300 and 450 kg urea ha-1) was randomized as a subplot in tillage treatment. The seedbed preparation was made based on common practices at the location. Plot size under the trial was 4 m × 3 m so as to get 70 cm inter row spacing. Maize seeds (single-cross 704 cultivar) were hand sown in May for two years. The ideal density of the crops was considered as spacing 20 cm inter plant. As soon as the seeds were sown, irrigation continued every 10 days. No herbicides or chemical fertilizers were applied during the course of the trials and weeding was done manually when necessary. Measurement of CO2 emissions was performed by the closed chamber method. For this purpose, PVC plastic rings (20 cm in diameter and 30 cm height) were scattered on each of the plots. The chambers were placed in soil for two hours and the gathered air was collected by 10 ml vacuum syringe. Then, the samples were transferred to the laboratory and CO2 was measured using GC-mass. Results and Discussion: The results showed that CO2 emissions for conventional tillage was about 15 and 10% higher than the reduced tillage in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The CO2 emissions can be taken as indicators of soil tillage effects on the soil ecosystem, because CO2 emissions are closely connected to the microbial turnover and the physical accessibility of organic matter to microbes. These parameters were more available in the conventional tillage than the reduced tillage. CO2 emissions were strongly higher in the remaining residual condition rather than leaving condition in two years. CO2 emissions in the remaining residual condition was about 4.36 and 5.37 times higher than that of the leaving residual condition in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The microbial respiration and humidity of soil in the remaining residual condition is higher than that of the leaving residual condition. CO2 emission was elevated with increasing the rate of N fertilizer. The N fertilizer can increase the microbial activity of the soil. Cover cropping and N fertilization can increase CO2 emissions in full and reduced tilled soils by increasing the amount of crop residue returned to the soil. The results showed that CO2 emissions in 2011 were higher than 2012 in all treatments. The residual treatment had more effect on daily CO2 emission in comparison with tillage and N fertilizer treatments in both years. The trait was higher under conventional tillage, residue remaining and higher N fertilizer levels compared to reduced tillage, residue leaving and lower N fertilizer application. Linear regression for air temperature and mean CO2 emission illustrated that there was a positive correlation between air temperature and CO2 emission. Conclusion: In essence, the results showed that CO2 emissions for conventional tillage were higher than that of reduced tillage in two years. Remaining residual condition had strongly higher CO2 emission rather than leaving condition. CO2 emission was elevated with increasing the rate of N fertilizer.

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    مجله آب و خاک
    Article . 2016
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      مجله آب و خاک
      Article . 2016
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    Authors: zakieh pahlavan yali; M. Zarrinkafsh; A. Moeini;

    Introduction: The increasing Greenhouse Gases in atmosphere is the main cause of climate and ecosystems changes. The most important greenhouse gas is CO2 that causes global warming or the greenhouse effect. One of the known solutions that reduces atmospheric carbon and helps to improve the situation, is carbon sequestration in vegetation cover and soil. Carbon sequestration refers to the change in atmospheric CO2 into organic carbon compounds by plants and capture it for a certain time . However, the ecosystems with different vegetation have Impressive Influence on soil carbon sequestration (SCS). Soil as the main component of these ecosystems is a world-wide indicator which has been known to play an important role in global balance of carbon sequestration. Furthermore, carbon sequestration can be a standard world trade and becomes guaranteed. Costs of transfer of CO2 (carbon transfer From the atmosphere into the soil) based on the negative effects of increased CO2 on Weather is always increasing, This issue can be faced by developing countries to create a new industry, especially when conservation and restoration of rangeland to follow. This research was regarded due to estimation of SCS in three land use types (orchard, paddy rice and forest) in a Part of Ramsar Lands, Northern Iran. Materials and Methods: Ramsar city with an area of about 729/7 km2 is located in the western part of Mazandaran province. Its height above sea level is 20 meters. Ramsar city is situated in a temperate and humid climate. Land area covered by forest, orchard and paddy rice. After field inspection of the area, detailed topographic maps of the specified zone on the study were also tested. In each of the three land types, 500 hectares in the every growing and totally 1,500 hectares as study area were selected .For evaluation the sequestration of carbon in different vegetation systems,15 soil profile selected and sampling from depth of 0 to 100 centimetres of each profile was done by collecting 15 samples with the total number of 45 samples. Soil sampling (at the 0-100 cm depth) was carried out following determination of points on map. Some of soil features (i.e., Soil structure, Bulk density ,Texture, Acidity, CEC, total Nitrogen and Organic Carbon) were measured in the laboratory. Then, the ANOVA and Duncan tests were employed due to statistical analysis using of SPSS software package. Also The map of carbon sequestration was prepared using of GIS approach. Results and Discussion :According to obtained results, the amounts of SCS were imposed by different land uses as non-significant. The amounts of SCS were found in forest (4532.35 ton/ha), orchard (2997.66 ton/ha) and paddy rice (2682.55 ton/ha) land use, respectively. The differences may be resulted from the variation among the ecosystem types and plant species. Forests are located in wetlands in the high forest and agricultural land more organic carbon levels (0 to 20 cm), but non-significant difference was observed in the soil depth in these areas. The Increased amount of carbon sequestration in the Orchard of the Paddy Rice can be interpreted due to long-term use of fertilizer in the orchards. In Paddy Rice of study due to deep plowing, results showed more decline of organic matter and the loss of carbon from soils.In addition, the maximumtotal nitrogen, organic and sequestrated carbon in top soil (0-10cm depth) were detected in forest (866.968 ton/ha),whereas the least amount dedicated in paddy rice (393.4 ton/ha) land uses. Four classes of detected soil in the study area were included AlfiSols, Inceptisols, Entisols and Mollisols Conclusions: We found no significant differences in terms of carbon sequestration in land use due to the impact of climate, annually high rainfall and washing clay seems logical. The plant communities in forest ecosystems can become more capable to absorb and retain carbon than other vegetation cover. Agriculture and farming operations are due to dispersion aggregates, reduce of organic matter and carbon sequestration compared to forest intact soils. Considering the vital role of soil carbon sequestration as one of the known values in terms of natural ecosystems and the importance of soil conservation programs, further research works are recommended on the effects of biotic factors such as grazing and land-use changes.

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    مجله آب و خاک
    Article . 2017
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      مجله آب و خاک
      Article . 2017
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    Authors: Sanaz Joorabloo; Khalil Azhdary; Zahra Ganji; Mehdi Delghandi;

    In recent years, human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) which caused global warming and climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on water systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to a host of problems. These include melting snowpack, altering both the intensity and frequency of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration and else. (Delghandi, 2016). Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key hydrological variable quantifying a major water loss from catchments and basins, which can be used to calculate actual evapotranspiration (ETa), scheduled irrigation and prepare input data for hydrological models. The irrigation water requirement basically represents the difference between the crop water requirement and effective precipitation. The only factors affecting ETo are climatic parameters as water is abundantly available at the reference evapotranspiring surface (Allen et al., 1998). The first of climatic parameters is air temperature. As temperature increases, evapotranspiration also goes up. Some study conducted to indicate climate change impact on ET (e.g, Behmanesh et al., 2015; Sheidaeian et al., 2015; Babaeian and Kouhi, 2012). In this study, climate change impacts on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and precipitation deficit (PD) were studied from 2010 to 2099 in Semnan region. The objective of this study was to examine the climate change impact on the ETo regarding the uncertainty of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) and Greenhouse Gases Emission (GHG) scenarios.

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    Authors: S. Zandifar; Z. Ebrahimikhusfi; M. khosroshahi; M. Naeimi;

    The occurrence of wind erosion and the spread of dust particles can be regarded as one of the most important and threatening environmental factors. Climate change and the frequency of droughts have played an important role in exacerbating or weakening these events. The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the trend of changes in four important climatic elements (precipitation, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) and dust storm index (DSI) in Qazvin city using the Mann-Kendall pre-whitened test and to determine the relationship between them based on the multiple linear regression method. Assessment of the meteorological drought status based on two standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation, as well as the evapotranspiration index and analysis of their effect on activity level of dust events, was the other objective of this study in the study area. For this purpose, after preparing and processing the climatic data and calculating the dust storm index, the trend of changes and the relationship between climatic parameters and dust events were investigated. The results showed that the changes of trend in the annual precipitation and relative humidity in Qazvin city were increasing, while the trend of annual changes in the wind speed and the mean air temperature was a decreasing one. Investigation of the monthly changes in the dust events also showed that there was a sharp decrease in the occurrence of wind erosion and the spread of domestic dust particles only in July. On a seasonal scale, with the exception of winter that has been reported without trends, in other seasons, the intensity of these events was significantly reduced. The effect of the meteorological drought on wind erosion was estimated to be 11% at the confidence level of 99%. In general, these findings indicate a decreasing trend of land degradation and desertification caused by wind erosion in Qazvin.

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    علوم آب و خاک
    Article . 2020
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      علوم آب و خاک
      Article . 2020
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    Authors: M. Delghandi; S. Broomandnasab; B. Andarzian; A.R. Massah-Bovani;

    Introduction In recent years human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Increases in [CO2] caused global warming and Climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on agricultural systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to a host of problems. On the other hand, increasing of [CO2] anticipated causing positive impacts on crop yield. Considering the socio-economic importance of agriculture for food security, it is essential to undertake assessments of how future climate change could affect crop yields, so as to provide necessary information to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. In this perspective, the aim of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts and on production for one of the most important varieties of wheat (chamran) in Khouzestan plain and provide directions for possible adaptation strategies. Materials and Methods: For this study, The Ahvaz region located in the Khuzestan province of Iran was selected. Ahvaz has a desert climate with long, very hot summers and mild, short winters. At first, thirteen GCM models and two greenhouse gases emission (GHG) scenarios (A2 and B1) was selected for determination of climate change scenarios. ∆P and ∆T parameters at monthly scale were calculated for each GCM model under each GHG emissions scenario by following equation: Where ∆P, ∆T are long term (thirty years) precipitation and temperature differences between baseline and future period, respectively. average future GCM temperature (2015-2044) for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000) for each month, , average future GCM precipitation for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000) for each month and i is index of month. Using calculated ∆Ps for each month via AOGCM models and Beta distribution, Cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) determined for generated ∆Ps. ∆P was derived for risk level 0.10 from CDF. Using the measured precipitation for the 30 years baseline period (1971-2000) and LARS-WG model, daily precipitation time series under risk level 0.10 were generated for future periods (2015-2045 and 2070-2100). Mentioned process in above was performed for temperature. Afterwards, wheat growth was simulated during future and baseline periods using DSSAT, CERES-Wheat model. DSSAT, CERES4.5 is a model based on the crop growth module in which crop growth and development are controlled by phenological development processes. The DSSAT model contains the soil water, soil dynamic, soil temperature, soil nitrogen and carbon, individual plant growth module and crop management module (including planting, harvesting, irrigation, fertilizer and residue modules). This model is not only used to simulate the crop yield, but also to explore the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and irrigated water. For model validation, field data from different years of observations were used in this study. Experimental data for the simulation were collected at the experimental farm of the Khuzestan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center (KANRC), located at Ahwaz in south western Iran. Results and Discussion: Results showed that wheat growth season was shortened under climate change, especially during 2070-2100 periods. Daily evapotranspiration increased and cumulative evapotranspiration decreased due to increasing daily temperatures and shortening of growth season, respectively. Comparing the wheat yield under climate change with base period based on the considered risk value (0.10) showed that wheat yield in 2015-2045 and 2070-2100 was decreased about 4 and 15 percent, respectively. Four adaptation strategies were assessed (shifting in the planting date, changing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer, irrigation regime and breeding strategies) in response to climate change. Results indicated that Nov, 21 and Dec, 11 are the best planting dates for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. The late season varieties with heat-tolerant characteristic had higher yield in comparison with short and normal season varieties. It indicated that breeding strategy was an appropriate adaptation under climate change. It was also found that the amount of nitrogen application will be reduced by 20 percent in future periods. The increase and decease of one irrigation application (40mm) to irrigation regime of base period resulted in maximum yield for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. But, reduction of two irrigation application (80mm) resulted in maximum water productivity (WPI). Conclusions In the present study, four adaptation strategies of wheat (shifting in the planting date, changing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer, irrigation regime and breeding strategies) under climate change in Ahvaz region were investigated. Result showed that Nov, 21 and Dec, 11 were the best planting dates for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. The late season varieties with heat-tolerant characteristic had higher yield in comparison with short and normal season varieties. It indicated that breeding strategy was an appropriate adaptation strategy under climate change. It was also found that the amount of nitrogen application will be reduced by 20 percent in future periods. The increase and decease of one irrigation application (40mm) to irrigation regime of base period resulted in maximum yield for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively.

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    مجله آب و خاک
    Article . 2016
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      مجله آب و خاک
      Article . 2016
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Mansour Mahinizadeh; Mohammad Ali Feizpour; Maryam Abedi;

    Importance of renewable-energy resources because of scarcity, greenhouse-gas emissions, and their fundamental roles in production and sustainable development, has made governments to reduce energy consumption and improving energy efficiency. In this regard, targeting subsidies rule was running in Iran since 2010. Since energy additionaly to labor and capital is one of the important inputs in production, running this rule with increasing energy price, affects manufacturing industries due to the type of energy and industry. In this research, the impacts of price liberalization on electricity efficiency have evaluated. Partial adjustment model, generalized method of moment and energy intensity measure are applied to this purpose. Data are collected from Statistical Center of Iran during 1995-2013. The research innovations are: using a partial adjustment model in evaluating efficiency, assessment whole industrial groups, and the period of research. The results show that in 95 percent level of confidence, the Iranian manufacturing industries are significantly flexible for changing the use of electricity. But the electricity efficiency has gotten worse after running the rule. In general, apposite of expectations, targeting subsidies rule has failed to improve electricity efficiency at least in short run.

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    Authors: Hossein Amiri; Lesyan Saedpour; Abas Kalantary;

    This paper evaluates the threshold effect of income on carbon dioxide emissions intensity in the MENA countries using panel smooth transition regression model. For this purpose, the variables of financial development, openness, energy intensity, income per capital and carbon dioxide emissions intensity over the period 1980 to 2011 are employed. While the results strongly indicated the existence of a nonlinear relationship, considering one transition function and two threshold parameters is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables. The empirical results show that the slope parameter in which the speed of adjustment represent from one regime to another one is estimated equivalent of 78762, and two threshold parameters estimated 1176 $ and 11614 $ based on income per capita respectively. The variables of openness and income per capital lead to reduce carbon dioxide emissions intensity in both regimes in which the impact of income per capital in first regime and openness in second regime is greater than another regime. Although, financial development leads to slight increase in carbon dioxide emissions intensity in the first regime, but in the second regime leads to decreases it.

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    Authors: Abbas Ali Keshtkar (PhD); Shahryar Semnani (MD); Gholamreza Roshandel (MD); Maryam Aboomardani (PhD); +6 Authors

    Background and Objective: Colorectal cancer is the third common malignancy in the world. Personal habits including life style and nutrition have been proposed as risk factors of colorectal cancer. We conducted this study to assess the nutritional characteristics in colorectal cancer patients in Golestan province of Iran. Materials and Methods: This case-control study was done on 47 colorectal cancer cases, diagnosed during 2004-05 and 47 healthy controls. A questionnaire containing socio-demographic and nutritional characteristics (FFQ) was filled for each of the participants. Chi square test was used to assess the relationship between variables. Results: In each of the two groups, 40.4% were females and 59.6% were males. The mean±SD age of age in cases and controls were 52.4±13.4 and 52.1±13.1 years, respectively. Total energy expenditure of higher than 1837.5 Kcal/ day was significantly related to colorectal cancer (OR=3.8 95% CI: 1.2-11.3). Colorectal cancer risk was higher in individual with frying cooking method (OR=3 95% CI: 0. 8-11.1). The risk of colorectal cancer was 6.5 times higher in individuals with fat consumption of higher than 118.5 grams/day (95% CI: 1.5-28.8). No significant relationship was seen between vegetables consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer. Conclusion: This study showed that high total energy expenditure, high fat consumption and using frying method for cooking are risk factors of colorectal cancer in Golestan prevince in Nothern of Iran.

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    Authors: Naghmeh Soofizadeh; Sayyed Mohsen Hosseini; Mas'oud Tabari;

    Pinus brutiais one of the most important species respect to low ecological needs and tolerance against winter drought and summer heat. This species is used in degraded ecosystems and dry and semidry shrub lands in Iran. It is an important species for urban green space as well. This experiment was performed as complete randomized and factorial design with three treatments, sowing date (autumn and winter), irrigation periods (every 2 and 4 days) and weed mechanical control (every 7 and 14 days) with four replications and 15 vases (per replications) in Zaghe nursery in Khorramabad city. At the end of the first growing season, measurements included biomass and vitality rate. Results showed that the effect of treatments on amount of biomass was significant. The maximum of biomass was showed in winter sowing, every 2-days irrigation and every 7-days weeding. Effect of irrigation on shoot/root ratio was significant and maximum rate concluded in every 4-days irrigation but conversely effect of sowing date and weed control and composition of treatments were not significant. Effect of treatments including, sowing date, weed control and composition of treatments on vitality rate were significant. Maximum vitality achieved at autumn sowing with every 2-days irrigation and 7-days weeding. Based on the results, for decreasing of nursery costs, the duration of irrigation can be extended and winter sowing can be replaced by autumn.

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    Authors: Laya Olfat; Maghsoud Amiri; Jahanyar BamdadSoufi; Mahsa Pishdar;

    Abstract: Fuzzy DEA methods have been introduced to deal with the fuzziness of variables. Although, some of these variables are affected by uncertainty and also information granularity, the membership function of fuzzy set is certain and this contrasts with the fuzzy concept as a whole. Type-2 fuzzy sets are introduced because of this and their membership functions have the nature of fuzzy type-1. The calculations of type-2 fuzzy sets are very complicated. However, interval type-2 fuzzy sets which have the characteristics of type-2 fuzzy sets and do not add any complexity to the calculation process can be applied to deal with such a problem. That is why in this paper, it is explored that how an extension of interval type-2 fuzzy dynamic network DEA approach helps to measure airports’ sustainability. Sustainable airports play an irrefutable role in making transportation systems sustainable. Such an integrative approach in DEA models is unprecedented. So, this extension of DEA is valuable from both technical and conceptual aspects. Introduction: Airports are an essential component of aviation (Knudsen, 2004). The importance of airports becomes clearer when it comes to the fact that aviation traffic is more than before and, therefore, sustainability becomes difficult. While, various studies have suggested that the sustainability of airports is essential to improve the performance of these systems, improve the living conditions of the public and increase the airport's credit (Brian, 2005; ICAO, 2012; SAGA, 2015). Paying attention to the concept of sustainability in managing airports has various benefits, such as increased competitiveness by purifying activities, reducing operating costs, and reducing costs for life cycle of materials and equipment, better use of assets, utilization newer and better technologies, reducing asset development costs, getting more support from the community, improving working conditions and, as a result, improving employee productivity, reducing environmental risks, health, safety and promotion (SAGA, 2015; Bretzke, 2013; TRB, 2012; ACARE, 2011; Too, Earl, 2010). For the reasons mentioned, it can be said that it is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of the passenger airports of the country. Certainly, before adopting any approach, the current situation must be assessed correctly. Various methods have been used to evaluate performance, but Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used methods (Azizi et al., 2004). Data envelopment analysis is a functional and nonparametric method that allows consideration of various components as input and output or intermediate activities (Bray et al., 2015). However, no research has been found to determine the performance of airports in accordance with the principles of sustainability in Iran. Materials and Methods: Type-2 fuzzy Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to assess the performance of Iran’s passenger airports based on sustainability development. By use of Dynamic Network Data Envelopment Analysis, one can see how the different parts of a decision unit can be linked. It also shows how the past performance of a decision-making unit can affect its current performance. In this type of data envelopment analysis, the function of the decision-making unit is transmitted through time-based intermediaries to the next period. Thus via using dynamic data envelopment analysis method, it is possible to consider the activities of different parts of a decision unit and also the efficiency with respect to time periods. However, the point is that in the real world, due to the increasing socioeconomic complexity and the inherent ambiguity of human thinking, there is no possibility of precise determination of many of the components. For this reason, type-2 fuzzy theory is employed that its membership function is the fuzzy of the first type. Since the complexity of calculations while using type-2 fuzzy set is high, interval type-2 fuzzy is applied. The 20 most popular passenger airports in Iran are selected to evaluate their performance in accordance with the principles of sustainability principles and via the help of the developed DEA model. Results and Discussion: Results of investigation show that Larestan Airport is the most efficient one among all and the last rank is allocated to the Isfahan airport considering fixed return to scale while in variable return to scale, Shiraz airport gets the last rank. The efficiency intervals of airports such as Larestan, Gorgan, Rasht and Yazd have little difference in two modes of return to scale. For this reason, we can say that there is no significant function inefficiency about these airports. But this difference is more evident in the efficiency of airports such as Mashhad. Airports, whose performance is generally low or are inefficient, are able to provide a groundbreaking improvement with appropriate benchmarking. Since airports operate in different conditions, difference in climatic conditions and the in workforce etc. should be considered while benchmarking. References ACARE (Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe) (2011). "Flight path 2050 Europe’s Vision for Aviation". Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Azizi, H., Kordrostami, S., & Amirteimoori, A. (2015). "Slacks-based measures of efficiency in imprecise data envelopment analysis: An approach based on data envelopment analysis with double frontiers". Computers & Industrial Engineering, 79, 42-51. Azizi, H., Jafari Shaerlar, A., & Farzipoor Saen, R. (2014). "A new Approach for Considering a Dual-Role Factor in Supplier Selection Problem: DEA with efficient and inefficient frontiers". Journal of production and operation management. 6(2), 129-144. Bray, S., Caggiani, l., & Ottomanelli, M. (2015). "Measuring transport systems efficiency under uncertainty by fuzzy sets theory based Data Envelopment Analysis: theoretical and practical comparison with traditional DEA model". Transportation Research Procedia, 5, 186 – 200. Bretzke, W.R. (2013). "Service Quality Versus Sustainability: A New Conflict of Objectives". Information Technology in Environmental Engineering Part of the series Environmental Science and Engineering, Springer, 179-190. Brian, E. (2005). "The Modern Airport Terminal: New Approaches to Airport Architecture". 2nd Edition, Taylor & Francis. ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) (2012). "Sustainable Future for Aviation: ICAO Rio+20 Global Initiative". http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/icao-publishes-booklet-for-rio20-decision makers (accessed 14.09.2015). Knudsen, F.B. (2004). "Defining Sustainability in the Aviation Sector". Brussell: Eurocontrol Experimental Centre. SAGA (Sustainable Aviation Guidance Alliance) (2015). "Learn". http://www.airportsustainability.org/learn, (accessed 16.12.2015). Transport Research Board (TRB) (2011). "Critical Issues in Aviation and the Environment 2011". Washington, DC: TRB. Too, L., & Earl, L. (2010). "Public transport service quality and sustainable development: a community stakeholder perspective". Sustainable Development. 18(1), 51-61.

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    Authors: Rooholla Moradi; Alireza Koocheki; Mehdi Nassiri; Hamed Mansoori;

    Introduction: The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will continue to increase and cause climatic change (16). These conditions are also true for Iran. The three greenhouse gases associated with agriculture are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The three GHGs associated with agriculture CO2, CH4, and N2O differ in their effectiveness in trapping heat and in their turnover rates in the atmosphere. This environmental change will have serious impacts on different growth and development processes of crops. Increasing temperature could affect physiological processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and partitioning of photoassimilates. Farmers are not able to change or manage the climatic conditions, but some factors such as soil, water, seed and agricultural practices can be managed to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change (32). Mitigation and adaptation are two known ways for reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Mitigation strategies are associated with decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through management practices such as reducing chemical fertilizer application, mechanization, increasing carbon storage in agroecosystems, planting biofuel crops and moving towards organic farming (42), etc. Material and Methods: This study was carried out at the experimental field of the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad in 2011 and was repeated in 2012. The Research Station (36°16´N, 59°36´E) is located at about 985 m a.s.l. Average temperature and precipitation rate of the research station in two years are shown in Figure. 1. The three-factor experiment was set up in a strip-split-plot arranged in a randomized complete block design with three replications. The experimental treatments were tillage systems (conventional and reduced tillage) and residual management (remaining and leaving of maize residual) assigned to main plots and different levels of N fertilizer (0, 150, 300 and 450 kg urea ha-1) was randomized as a subplot in tillage treatment. The seedbed preparation was made based on common practices at the location. Plot size under the trial was 4 m × 3 m so as to get 70 cm inter row spacing. Maize seeds (single-cross 704 cultivar) were hand sown in May for two years. The ideal density of the crops was considered as spacing 20 cm inter plant. As soon as the seeds were sown, irrigation continued every 10 days. No herbicides or chemical fertilizers were applied during the course of the trials and weeding was done manually when necessary. Measurement of CO2 emissions was performed by the closed chamber method. For this purpose, PVC plastic rings (20 cm in diameter and 30 cm height) were scattered on each of the plots. The chambers were placed in soil for two hours and the gathered air was collected by 10 ml vacuum syringe. Then, the samples were transferred to the laboratory and CO2 was measured using GC-mass. Results and Discussion: The results showed that CO2 emissions for conventional tillage was about 15 and 10% higher than the reduced tillage in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The CO2 emissions can be taken as indicators of soil tillage effects on the soil ecosystem, because CO2 emissions are closely connected to the microbial turnover and the physical accessibility of organic matter to microbes. These parameters were more available in the conventional tillage than the reduced tillage. CO2 emissions were strongly higher in the remaining residual condition rather than leaving condition in two years. CO2 emissions in the remaining residual condition was about 4.36 and 5.37 times higher than that of the leaving residual condition in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The microbial respiration and humidity of soil in the remaining residual condition is higher than that of the leaving residual condition. CO2 emission was elevated with increasing the rate of N fertilizer. The N fertilizer can increase the microbial activity of the soil. Cover cropping and N fertilization can increase CO2 emissions in full and reduced tilled soils by increasing the amount of crop residue returned to the soil. The results showed that CO2 emissions in 2011 were higher than 2012 in all treatments. The residual treatment had more effect on daily CO2 emission in comparison with tillage and N fertilizer treatments in both years. The trait was higher under conventional tillage, residue remaining and higher N fertilizer levels compared to reduced tillage, residue leaving and lower N fertilizer application. Linear regression for air temperature and mean CO2 emission illustrated that there was a positive correlation between air temperature and CO2 emission. Conclusion: In essence, the results showed that CO2 emissions for conventional tillage were higher than that of reduced tillage in two years. Remaining residual condition had strongly higher CO2 emission rather than leaving condition. CO2 emission was elevated with increasing the rate of N fertilizer.

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    مجله آب و خاک
    Article . 2016
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      Article . 2016
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    Authors: zakieh pahlavan yali; M. Zarrinkafsh; A. Moeini;

    Introduction: The increasing Greenhouse Gases in atmosphere is the main cause of climate and ecosystems changes. The most important greenhouse gas is CO2 that causes global warming or the greenhouse effect. One of the known solutions that reduces atmospheric carbon and helps to improve the situation, is carbon sequestration in vegetation cover and soil. Carbon sequestration refers to the change in atmospheric CO2 into organic carbon compounds by plants and capture it for a certain time . However, the ecosystems with different vegetation have Impressive Influence on soil carbon sequestration (SCS). Soil as the main component of these ecosystems is a world-wide indicator which has been known to play an important role in global balance of carbon sequestration. Furthermore, carbon sequestration can be a standard world trade and becomes guaranteed. Costs of transfer of CO2 (carbon transfer From the atmosphere into the soil) based on the negative effects of increased CO2 on Weather is always increasing, This issue can be faced by developing countries to create a new industry, especially when conservation and restoration of rangeland to follow. This research was regarded due to estimation of SCS in three land use types (orchard, paddy rice and forest) in a Part of Ramsar Lands, Northern Iran. Materials and Methods: Ramsar city with an area of about 729/7 km2 is located in the western part of Mazandaran province. Its height above sea level is 20 meters. Ramsar city is situated in a temperate and humid climate. Land area covered by forest, orchard and paddy rice. After field inspection of the area, detailed topographic maps of the specified zone on the study were also tested. In each of the three land types, 500 hectares in the every growing and totally 1,500 hectares as study area were selected .For evaluation the sequestration of carbon in different vegetation systems,15 soil profile selected and sampling from depth of 0 to 100 centimetres of each profile was done by collecting 15 samples with the total number of 45 samples. Soil sampling (at the 0-100 cm depth) was carried out following determination of points on map. Some of soil features (i.e., Soil structure, Bulk density ,Texture, Acidity, CEC, total Nitrogen and Organic Carbon) were measured in the laboratory. Then, the ANOVA and Duncan tests were employed due to statistical analysis using of SPSS software package. Also The map of carbon sequestration was prepared using of GIS approach. Results and Discussion :According to obtained results, the amounts of SCS were imposed by different land uses as non-significant. The amounts of SCS were found in forest (4532.35 ton/ha), orchard (2997.66 ton/ha) and paddy rice (2682.55 ton/ha) land use, respectively. The differences may be resulted from the variation among the ecosystem types and plant species. Forests are located in wetlands in the high forest and agricultural land more organic carbon levels (0 to 20 cm), but non-significant difference was observed in the soil depth in these areas. The Increased amount of carbon sequestration in the Orchard of the Paddy Rice can be interpreted due to long-term use of fertilizer in the orchards. In Paddy Rice of study due to deep plowing, results showed more decline of organic matter and the loss of carbon from soils.In addition, the maximumtotal nitrogen, organic and sequestrated carbon in top soil (0-10cm depth) were detected in forest (866.968 ton/ha),whereas the least amount dedicated in paddy rice (393.4 ton/ha) land uses. Four classes of detected soil in the study area were included AlfiSols, Inceptisols, Entisols and Mollisols Conclusions: We found no significant differences in terms of carbon sequestration in land use due to the impact of climate, annually high rainfall and washing clay seems logical. The plant communities in forest ecosystems can become more capable to absorb and retain carbon than other vegetation cover. Agriculture and farming operations are due to dispersion aggregates, reduce of organic matter and carbon sequestration compared to forest intact soils. Considering the vital role of soil carbon sequestration as one of the known values in terms of natural ecosystems and the importance of soil conservation programs, further research works are recommended on the effects of biotic factors such as grazing and land-use changes.

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    مجله آب و خاک
    Article . 2017
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      مجله آب و خاک
      Article . 2017
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    Authors: Sanaz Joorabloo; Khalil Azhdary; Zahra Ganji; Mehdi Delghandi;

    In recent years, human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) which caused global warming and climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on water systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to a host of problems. These include melting snowpack, altering both the intensity and frequency of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration and else. (Delghandi, 2016). Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key hydrological variable quantifying a major water loss from catchments and basins, which can be used to calculate actual evapotranspiration (ETa), scheduled irrigation and prepare input data for hydrological models. The irrigation water requirement basically represents the difference between the crop water requirement and effective precipitation. The only factors affecting ETo are climatic parameters as water is abundantly available at the reference evapotranspiring surface (Allen et al., 1998). The first of climatic parameters is air temperature. As temperature increases, evapotranspiration also goes up. Some study conducted to indicate climate change impact on ET (e.g, Behmanesh et al., 2015; Sheidaeian et al., 2015; Babaeian and Kouhi, 2012). In this study, climate change impacts on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and precipitation deficit (PD) were studied from 2010 to 2099 in Semnan region. The objective of this study was to examine the climate change impact on the ETo regarding the uncertainty of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) and Greenhouse Gases Emission (GHG) scenarios.

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    Authors: S. Zandifar; Z. Ebrahimikhusfi; M. khosroshahi; M. Naeimi;

    The occurrence of wind erosion and the spread of dust particles can be regarded as one of the most important and threatening environmental factors. Climate change and the frequency of droughts have played an important role in exacerbating or weakening these events. The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the trend of changes in four important climatic elements (precipitation, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) and dust storm index (DSI) in Qazvin city using the Mann-Kendall pre-whitened test and to determine the relationship between them based on the multiple linear regression method. Assessment of the meteorological drought status based on two standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation, as well as the evapotranspiration index and analysis of their effect on activity level of dust events, was the other objective of this study in the study area. For this purpose, after preparing and processing the climatic data and calculating the dust storm index, the trend of changes and the relationship between climatic parameters and dust events were investigated. The results showed that the changes of trend in the annual precipitation and relative humidity in Qazvin city were increasing, while the trend of annual changes in the wind speed and the mean air temperature was a decreasing one. Investigation of the monthly changes in the dust events also showed that there was a sharp decrease in the occurrence of wind erosion and the spread of domestic dust particles only in July. On a seasonal scale, with the exception of winter that has been reported without trends, in other seasons, the intensity of these events was significantly reduced. The effect of the meteorological drought on wind erosion was estimated to be 11% at the confidence level of 99%. In general, these findings indicate a decreasing trend of land degradation and desertification caused by wind erosion in Qazvin.

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    علوم آب و خاک
    Article . 2020
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      علوم آب و خاک
      Article . 2020
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    Authors: M. Delghandi; S. Broomandnasab; B. Andarzian; A.R. Massah-Bovani;

    Introduction In recent years human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Increases in [CO2] caused global warming and Climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on agricultural systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to a host of problems. On the other hand, increasing of [CO2] anticipated causing positive impacts on crop yield. Considering the socio-economic importance of agriculture for food security, it is essential to undertake assessments of how future climate change could affect crop yields, so as to provide necessary information to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. In this perspective, the aim of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts and on production for one of the most important varieties of wheat (chamran) in Khouzestan plain and provide directions for possible adaptation strategies. Materials and Methods: For this study, The Ahvaz region located in the Khuzestan province of Iran was selected. Ahvaz has a desert climate with long, very hot summers and mild, short winters. At first, thirteen GCM models and two greenhouse gases emission (GHG) scenarios (A2 and B1) was selected for determination of climate change scenarios. ∆P and ∆T parameters at monthly scale were calculated for each GCM model under each GHG emissions scenario by following equation: Where ∆P, ∆T are long term (thirty years) precipitation and temperature differences between baseline and future period, respectively. average future GCM temperature (2015-2044) for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000) for each month, , average future GCM precipitation for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000) for each month and i is index of month. Using calculated ∆Ps for each month via AOGCM models and Beta distribution, Cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) determined for generated ∆Ps. ∆P was derived for risk level 0.10 from CDF. Using the measured precipitation for the 30 years baseline period (1971-2000) and LARS-WG model, daily precipitation time series under risk level 0.10 were generated for future periods (2015-2045 and 2070-2100). Mentioned process in above was performed for temperature. Afterwards, wheat growth was simulated during future and baseline periods using DSSAT, CERES-Wheat model. DSSAT, CERES4.5 is a model based on the crop growth module in which crop growth and development are controlled by phenological development processes. The DSSAT model contains the soil water, soil dynamic, soil temperature, soil nitrogen and carbon, individual plant growth module and crop management module (including planting, harvesting, irrigation, fertilizer and residue modules). This model is not only used to simulate the crop yield, but also to explore the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and irrigated water. For model validation, field data from different years of observations were used in this study. Experimental data for the simulation were collected at the experimental farm of the Khuzestan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center (KANRC), located at Ahwaz in south western Iran. Results and Discussion: Results showed that wheat growth season was shortened under climate change, especially during 2070-2100 periods. Daily evapotranspiration increased and cumulative evapotranspiration decreased due to increasing daily temperatures and shortening of growth season, respectively. Comparing the wheat yield under climate change with base period based on the considered risk value (0.10) showed that wheat yield in 2015-2045 and 2070-2100 was decreased about 4 and 15 percent, respectively. Four adaptation strategies were assessed (shifting in the planting date, changing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer, irrigation regime and breeding strategies) in response to climate change. Results indicated that Nov, 21 and Dec, 11 are the best planting dates for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. The late season varieties with heat-tolerant characteristic had higher yield in comparison with short and normal season varieties. It indicated that breeding strategy was an appropriate adaptation under climate change. It was also found that the amount of nitrogen application will be reduced by 20 percent in future periods. The increase and decease of one irrigation application (40mm) to irrigation regime of base period resulted in maximum yield for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. But, reduction of two irrigation application (80mm) resulted in maximum water productivity (WPI). Conclusions In the present study, four adaptation strategies of wheat (shifting in the planting date, changing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer, irrigation regime and breeding strategies) under climate change in Ahvaz region were investigated. Result showed that Nov, 21 and Dec, 11 were the best planting dates for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively. The late season varieties with heat-tolerant characteristic had higher yield in comparison with short and normal season varieties. It indicated that breeding strategy was an appropriate adaptation strategy under climate change. It was also found that the amount of nitrogen application will be reduced by 20 percent in future periods. The increase and decease of one irrigation application (40mm) to irrigation regime of base period resulted in maximum yield for 2015-2045 and 2070-2100, respectively.

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    مجله آب و خاک
    Article . 2016
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      مجله آب و خاک
      Article . 2016
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