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I analyze energy-efficiency policy as a prescription of a minimum-efficiency standard for energy-using household goods like cars, building insulation, and home appliances. Such a policy has two effects. At the intensive margin, a household that invests will choose a more efficient device. At the extensive margin, there will be more households that choose not to invest at all. Thus, additional to and different from rebound effects, energy-efficiency policy may have unintended consequences. I analyze the equilibrium effects of a minimum-efficiency standard, taking price adjustments and household heterogeneity into account. A moderate minimum-efficiency standard increases demand for efficiency-enhancing household capital goods, and reduces energy demand. More stringent policy is shown to be less effective or even counterproductive. For the case of a fixed supply of efficiency-enhancing capital, it is shown that minimum-efficiency standards increase equilibrium energy demand. Finally, I analyze which households benefit from minimum-efficiency standards and which ones lose. A standard induces investing households to expend more for household capital and less for energy. The wedge between the induced expenditures and the private optimum is analyzed as a deadweight loss.

This paper provides an overview of how economists think about climate change impacts with a focus on Asia. It is designed to discuss the steps along the causal chain from physical impacts to impacts on human and natural systems. It starts with a summary of the projected physical impacts of climate change on Asia based on the IPCC's 5th assessment report. It then discusses the concept of the social cost of carbon and how integrated assessment models are used to obtain estimates of this number. This includes a discussion of how a mapping from physical climate impacts to economic damages - called the damage function - is obtained. A recent literature using a mapping of weather/climate into GDP growth rates is discussed, including impact estimates from the literature. The second part of the paper contains an extensive discussion of the mitigation challenge, both physical and economic and concludes with a discussion of the policy challenges going forward.

This paper examines the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on energy prices, using an event study with intraday data. Three measures for monetary policy surprises are used: 1) the surprise change to the current federal funds target rate, 2) the surprise component to the future path of policy, and 3) the unanticipated announcements of future large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). Estimation results show that monetary policy news has economically important and highly significant effects on the level and volatility of energy futures prices and their trading volumes. I find that, on average, a hypothetical unanticipated 100 basis point hike in the federal funds target rate is associated with roughly a 3 percent decrease in West Texas Intermediate oil prices. I also document that, in a narrow window around the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve’s LSAP1 and LSAP2 programs have a cumulative financial market impact on crude oil equivalent to an unanticipated cut in the federal funds target rate of 155 basis points. Monetary policy affects oil prices mostly by affecting the value of the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Intraday energy prices also respond to news announcements about the U.S. macroeconomy and inventories. The daily responses are never significant, except in the case of inventory news.

Using 3 years of data from the 47 prefectures of Japan, we estimate the behavior of households that simultaneously make discrete decisions about vehicle ownership and continuous decisions about driving distance. We use the estimated parameters to calculate elasticities and to simulate the effects of alternative pollu- tion control policies such as taxes on gasoline, distance, or particular cars. Given choices about cars and distance, we also calculate emissions. Since we model simultaneous choices, both the chosen distance and the chosen car can be affected either by a tax on distance or by a tax on car characteristics. We find expected signs for coefficients on price and income. Car choices are relatively inelastic, however, either to taxes on cars or to taxes on gas or distance. Thus, emissions are more affected by taxes on gasoline than by taxes on particular vehicles. Yet, taxes on cars have lower costs on consumers and thus lower marginal cost of abatement. Given that the existing gas tax already achieves some abatement, mostly through driving reduction, this analysis suggests that further abatement from the use of distance- reducing taxes is more costly than achieving some marginal abatement from induced changes in car choices. The option with the lowest cost is to tax each car at a rate proportional to its emission rate.

The recent implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in January 2005 created new financial risks for emitting firms. To deal with these risks, options are traded since October 2006. Because the EU ETS is a new market, the relevant underlying model for option pricing is still a controversial issue. This article improves our understanding of this issue by characterizing the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European Climate Exchange (ECX), which is valid during Phase II (2008-2012) of the EU ETS. The realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and subsampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and dynamic properties of the ECX emissions futures volatility. The distribution of the daily realized volatility in logarithmic form is shown to be close to normal. The mixture-of-distributions hypothesis is strongly rejected, as the returns standardized using daily measures of volatility clearly departs from normality. A simplified HAR-RV model (Corsi, 2009) with only a weekly component, which reproduces long memory properties of the series, is then used to model the volatility dynamics. Finally, the predictive accuracy of the HAR-RV model is tested against GARCH specifications using one-step-ahead forecasts, which confirms the HAR-RV superior ability. Our conclusions indicate that (i) the standard Brownian motion is not an adequate tool for option pricing in the EU ETS, and (ii) a jump component should be included in the stochastic process to price options, thus providing more efficient tools for risk-management activities.

Although agriculture in Nigeria is the major source of income for about 70% of the active population, the impact of agrarian infrastructure on boosting productivity and supporting livelihoods has increased. Climate change and the increasing trend of climate-related events in Nigeria challenge both the stability of agrarian infrastructure and livelihood systems. Based on case studies of two local communities in Plateau state in Nigeria, this paper utilizes a range of perceptions to examine the impacts of climate-related events on agrarian infrastructures and how agrarian livelihood systems are, in turn, affected. Data are obtained from a questionnaire survey (n = 175 farmers) and semi-structured interviews (n = 14 key informants). The study identifies local indicators of climate change, high risks climate events and the components of agrarian infrastructures that are at risk from climate events. Findings reveal that, changes in rainfall and temperature patterns increase the probability of floods and droughts. They also reveal that, although locational differences account for the high impact of floods on road transport systems and droughts on irrigation infrastructures, both have a chain of negative effects on agricultural activities, economic activities and livelihood systems. A binomial logistic regression model is used to predict the perceived impact levels of floods and droughts, while an in-depth analysis is utilized to corroborate the quantitative results. The paper further stresses the need to strengthen the institutional capacity for risk reduction through the provision of resilient infrastructures, as the poor conditions of agrarian infrastructure were identified as dominant factors on the high impact levels.

In this paper we use the hybrid integrated model WITCH to quantify and analyze the investments and financial flows stimulated by a climate policy to stabilize Greenhouse Gases concentrations at 550ppm CO2-eq at the end of the century. We focus on investments to decarbonize the power sector and on investments in knowledge creation. We examine the financial flows associated with the carbon market and the implications for the international trade of oil. Criticalities in investment requirements will emerge when coal power plants with carbon capture and sequestration and nuclear power plants are deployed around 2020-2040, both in high and low income regions. Investments in energy related R&D increase sharply and might cause stress in the short term. However, the transition to a low-carbon world, although costly, appears to be manageable from a financial point of view. In particular, R&D financial needs can easily be accommodated using revenues from the carbon market, which is expected to eventually become more important than the oil market in terms of traded value.

Paragraph 31 of the Doha Ministerial Declaration mandates to the liberalization of environmental goods and services. This mandate offers a good opportunity to put climate-friendly goods and services on a fast track to liberalization. Agreement on this paragraph should represent one immediate contribution that the WTO can make to fight against climate change. This paper presents the key issues surrounding the liberalization of trade in climate-friendly goods and technologies in WTO environmental goods negotiations. It begins with discussing what products to liberalize and how. Given that WTO Members are divided by this key issue, the paper explores options to move current negotiations on the liberalization of trade in environmental goods and technologies forward, both within and outside the WTO. Recognizing that there is no one-size-fits-all strategy for tariff liberalization for all countries and for all environmental goods, the paper suggests the need for a high degree of flexibility to accommodate different situations and stakes in the liberalization of trade in environmental goods. Given that there are simply not enough environmental markets or these markets are weak in many developing countries, the paper emphasizes that creating markets for environmental goods in developing countries is far more important than just improving market-access conditions for associated goods, and discusses how to best serve the interests and concerns of developing countries.