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Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.CAMS.CAMS-CSM1-0.ssp119' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CAMS-CSM 1.0 climate model, released in 2016, includes the following components: atmos: ECHAM5_CAMS (T106; 320 x 160 longitude/latitude; 31 levels; top level 10 mb), land: CoLM 1.0, ocean: MOM4 (tripolar; 360 x 200 longitude/latitude, primarily 1deg latitude/longitude, down to 1/3deg within 30deg of the equatorial tropics; 50 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), seaIce: SIS 1.0. The model was run by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China (CAMS) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

As part of global efforts to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy sources there has been a rapid increase in the installation of renewable energy devices. The installation and operation of these devices can result in conflicts with wildlife. In the marine environment, mammals may avoid wind farms that are under construction or operating. Such avoidance may lead to more time spent travelling or displacement from key habitats. A paucity of data on at-sea movements of marine mammals around wind farms limits our understanding of the nature of their potential impacts. Here, we present the results of a telemetry study on harbour seals Phoca vitulina in The Wash, south-east England, an area where wind farms are being constructed using impact pile driving. We investigated whether seals avoid wind farms during operation, construction in its entirety, or during piling activity. The study was carried out using historical telemetry data collected prior to any wind farm development and telemetry data collected in 2012 during the construction of one wind farm and the operation of another. Within an operational wind farm, there was a close-to-significant increase in seal usage compared to prior to wind farm development. However, the wind farm was at the edge of a large area of increased usage, so the presence of the wind farm was unlikely to be the cause. There was no significant displacement during construction as a whole. However, during piling, seal usage (abundance) was significantly reduced up to 25 km from the piling activity; within 25 km of the centre of the wind farm, there was a 19 to 83% (95% confidence intervals) decrease in usage compared to during breaks in piling, equating to a mean estimated displacement of 440 individuals. This amounts to significant displacement starting from predicted received levels of between 166 and 178 dB re 1 μPa(p-p). Displacement was limited to piling activity; within 2 h of cessation of pile driving, seals were distributed as per the non-piling scenario. Synthesis and applications. Our spatial and temporal quantification of avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is critical to reduce uncertainty and increase robustness in environmental impact assessments of future developments. Specifically, the results will allow policymakers to produce industry guidance on the likelihood of displacement of seals in response to pile driving; the relationship between sound levels and avoidance rates; and the duration of any avoidance, thus allowing far more accurate environmental assessments to be carried out during the consenting process. Further, our results can be used to inform mitigation strategies in terms of both the sound levels likely to cause displacement and what temporal patterns of piling would minimize the magnitude of the energetic impacts of displacement. Wash_diagWash_diag.xlsx is the historic location data (pre windfarm construction) for the 19 individuals used in the analysis described in Russell et al.

Oskarshamn is one of the municipalities being discussed as a possible site for disposal of nuclear waste from the Swedish nuclear power plants, and there has been inquiries made for a pilot study in the area. In view of this the local council of Oskarshamn appointed a ´Youth team´, consisting of ten young politicians from all political parties represented in the local council. The aim of the team was to inform and create debate among adolescents about how to store the radioactive waste from nuclear power plants. The purpose of this survey, addressed to young people in Oskarshamn, was to shed light on their opinion towards a pilot study and possible disposal of nuclear waste in Oskarshamn. The respondents had to answer questions about their opinion on the use of nuclear power in Sweden, if they believed nuclear power to be abolished by year 2010, and about their general interest in issues concerning energy and nuclear power. Other questions concerned risks associated with nuclear power, the influence different groups have/ought to have when it comes to disposal of nuclear waste, and if the respondent would accept a decision to dispose nuclear waste in Oskarshamn. A number of questions dealt with the suggested pilot study; if the respondent was for or against a pilot study; who should decide about the pilot study; if there had been enough information about the study; and if the respondent had attended any meeting, signed any petition, contacted any politician, contacted or participated in mass media, or tried to influence anyone´s opinion on any issue concerning the pilot study. The respondents also had to state the issues they considered to be important to study in a pilot study. Furthermore the respondents had to give their opinion about a number of risks discussed in connection with disposal of nuclear waste in Oskarshamn. Other questions concerned the influence on job opportunities and tourism. Demographic items include age, gender, marital status, children, education, occupation, and trade union membership. Oskarshamn is one of the municipalities being discussed as a possible site for disposal of nuclear waste from the Swedish nuclear power plants, and there has been inquiries made for a pilot study in the area. In view of this the local council of Oskarshamn appointed a 'Youth team', consisting of ten young politicians from all political parties represented in the local council. The aim of the team was to inform and create debate among adolescents about how to store the radioactive waste from nuclear power plants. The purpose of this survey, addressed to young people in Oskarshamn, was to shed light on their opinion towards a pilot study and possible disposal of nuclear waste in Oskarshamn. The respondents had to answer questions about their opinion on the use of nuclear power in Sweden, if they believed nuclear power to be abolished by year 2010, and about their general interest in issues concerning energy and nuclear power. Other questions concerned risks associated with nuclear power, the influence different groups have/ought to have when it comes to disposal of nuclear waste, and if the respondent would accept a decision to dispose nuclear waste in Oskarshamn. A number of questions dealt with the suggested pilot study; if the respondent was for or against a pilot study; who should decide about the pilot study; if there had been enough information about the study; and if the respondent had attended any meeting, signed any petition, contacted any politician, contacted or participated in mass media, or tried to influence anyone's opinion on any issue concerning the pilot study. The respondents also had to state the issues they considered to be important to study in a pilot study. Furthermore the respondents had to give their opinion about a number of risks discussed in connection with disposal of nuclear waste in Oskarshamn. Other questions concerned the influence on job opportunities and tourism. Demographic items include age, gender, marital status, children, education, occupation, and trade union membership.

Seeds of 52 species of herbaceous plants typical from European grassland ecosystems were obtained from a commercial supplier (Planta naturalis). When species germinated in Petri dishes the seedlings were then transplanted to plastic pots (11 x 11 x 12 cm height, 1L volume). Pots were filled with a mixture of a potting substrate (Biolan Murumuld) and sand. Pots were randomly placed in the greenhouse of the University of Tartu, Estonia. Then, we established monocultures with seven individuals of a single species per pot which were grown under well-watered conditions. One month after transplanting the seedlings to the pots, a drought treatment was applied to half of the pots (five pots per species). The experiment was harvested in late July 2020, when the first individuals started flowering, after month-long drought treatment. Plant traits related to drought responses and resource use strategies were selected and measured for each species following established protocols. These included seven above- and belowground traits: Vegetative plant height (H, cm), Leaf Area (LA, mm2), Specific Leaf Area (SLA, mm2 mg-1), Leaf Dry Matter Content (LDMC, mg g-1), Specific Root Length (SRL, cm g-1), Average root Diameter (AvgD, mm), Root Dry Matter Content (RDMC, mg g-1). Before harvesting, we measured the plant height and collected one leaf per individual for three individuals per pot. Afterward, we collected the aboveground biomass and belowground biomass of all the individuals in each pot. Due to the difficulty in untangling the roots of the different individuals in a pot, root traits were estimated at the pot level. Roots were washed and a sample of finest roots (10-50mg) was collected. Leaves and fine roots were scanned at 300dpi and 600dpi, respectively, using an Epson perfection 3200 Photo scanner for leaves and Epson V700 Photo scanner for fine roots. After scanning, leaves and roots were oven-dried at 60°C for 72h. AvgD and root length were determined using WinRHIZO Pro 2015 (Regent Instruments Inc., Canada), and leaf area with ImageJ software. We averaged all traits values at the species level, attaining a single value for each trait in each treatment. The total aboveground biomass and total belowground biomass of each pot were oven-dried at 60°C for 72h and weighed. Drought is expected to increase in future climate scenarios. Although responses to drought of individual functional traits are relatively well-known, simultaneous changes across multiple traits in response to water scarcity remain poorly understood despite its importance to understand alternative strategies to resist drought. We grew 52 herbaceous species in monocultures under drought and control treatments and characterized the functional space using seven measured above- and belowground traits: plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, specific root length, average root diameter, and root dry matter content. Then, we estimated how each species occupied this space and the amount of functional space occupied in both treatments using trait probability density functions. We also estimated intraspecific trait variability (ITV) for each species as the dissimilarity in trait values between the individuals of each treatment. We then mapped drought resistance and ITV in the functional space using generalized additive models. The response of species to drought strongly depended on their traits, with species that invested more in root tissues and conserved small size being both more resistant to drought and having higher ITV. We also observed a significant trend of trait displacement towards less conservative strategies. However, these changes depended strongly on the trait values of species in the control treatment, with species with different traits having opposing responses to drought. These contrasting responses resulted in lower trait variability in the species pool in drought compared to control conditions. Our results suggest strong trait filtering acting on conservative species as well as the existence of an optimal part in the functional space to which species converge under drought. Our results show that changes in species trait-space occupancy are key to understand plant strategies to withstand drought, highlighting the importance of individual variation in response to environmental changes, and suggest that community-wide functional diversity and biomass productivity could decrease in a drier future. Knowing these shifts will help to anticipate changes in ecosystem functioning facing climate change. The complete dataset is in the file.

Here, we investigate how stochasticity and age-dependence in energy dynamics influence maternal allocation in iteroparous females. We develop a state-dependent model to calculate the optimal maternal allocation strategy with respect to maternal age and energy reserves, focusing on allocation in a single offspring at a time. We introduce stochasticity in energetic costs– in terms of the amount of energy required to forage successfully and individual differences in metabolism – and in feeding success. We systematically assess how allocation is influenced by age-dependence in energetic costs, feeding success, energy intake per successful feeding attempt, and environmentally-driven mortality. First, using stochastic dynamic programming, we calculate the optimal amount of reserves M that mothers allocate to each offspring depending on their own reserves R and age A. The optimal life history strategy is then the set of allocation decisions M(R, A) over the whole lifespan which maximizes the total reproductive success of distant descendants. Second, we simulated the life histories of 1000 mothers following the optimisation strategy and the reserves at the start of adulthood R1, the distribution of which was determined, the distribution of which was determined using an iterative procedure as described . For each individual, we calculated maternal allocation Mt, maternal reserves Rt, and relative allocation Mt⁄Rt at each time period t. The relative allocation helps us to understand how resources are partitioned between mother and offspring. Third, we consider how the optimal strategy varies when there is age-dependence in resource acquisition, energetic costs and survival. Specifically, we include varying scenarios with an age-dependent increase or a decrease with age in energetic costs (c_t), feeding success (q_t), energy intake per successful feeding attempt (y_t), and environmentally-driven extrinsic mortality rate (d_t) (Table 2). We consider the age-dependence of parameters one at a time or in pairs, altering the slope, intercept, or asymptote of the age-dependence (linear or asymptotic function). Our aim is to identify whether the observed reproductive senescence can arise from optimal maternal allocation. As such, we do not impose a decline in selection in later life as all offspring are equally valuable at all ages (for a given maternal allocation), and there are no mutations. For each scenario, we run the backward iteration process with these age-dependent functions, obtain the allocation strategy, and simulate the life history of 1000 individuals based on the novel strategy. We then fit quadratic and linear models to the reproduction of these 1000 individuals using the lme function, nlme package in R. For these models, the response variable is the maternal allocation Mt and explanatory variables are the time period t and t2 (for the quadratic fit only), with individual identity as a random term. We use likelihood ratio tests to compare linear and quadratic models using the anova function (package nlme) with the maximum-likelihood method. If the comparison is significant (p-value <0.05), we considered the quadratic model to have a better fit, otherwise the linear model is considered more parsimonious. We were particularly interested in identifying scenarios where the fit was quadratic with a negative quadratic term. For each scenario, the pseudo R2 conditional value (proportion of variance explained by the fixed and random terms, accounting for individual identity) is calculated to assess the goodness-of-fit of the lme model, on a scale from 0 to 1, using the “r.squared” function, package gabtool. All calculations and coding are done in R. Iteroparous parents face a trade-off between allocating current resources to reproduction versus maximizing survival to produce further offspring. Optimal allocation varies across age, and follows a hump-shaped pattern across diverse taxa, including mammals, birds and invertebrates. This non-linear allocation pattern lacks a general theoretical explanation, potentially because most studies focus on offspring number rather than quality and do not incorporate uncertainty or age-dependence in energy intake or costs. Here, we develop a life history model of maternal allocation in iteroparous animals. We identify the optimal allocation strategy in response to stochasticity when energetic costs, feeding success, energy intake, and environmentally-driven mortality risk are age-dependent. As a case study, we use tsetse, a viviparous insect that produces one offspring per reproductive attempt and relies on an uncertain food supply of vertebrate blood. Diverse scenarios generate a hump-shaped allocation: when energetic costs and energy intake increase with age; and also when energy intake decreases, and energetic costs increase or decrease. Feeding success and mortality risk have little influence on age-dependence in allocation. We conclude that ubiquitous evidence for age-dependence in these influential traits can explain the prevalence of non-linear maternal allocation across diverse taxonomic groups.

Study data and figure results.

This archive includes a minimal dataset needed to reproduce the analysis as well as a table (CSV) and spatial polygons (ESRI shapefile) of the resulting output from the publication: Hoecker, T.J., S. A. Parks, M. Krosby & S. Z. Dobrowski. 2023. Widespread exposure to altered fire regimes under 2°C warming is projected to transform conifer forests of the Western United States. Communications Earth and Environment. Publication abstract: Changes in wildfire frequency and severity are altering conifer forests and pose threats to biodiversity and natural climate solutions. Where and when feedbacks between vegetation and fire could mediate forest transformation are unresolved. Here, for the western U.S., we used climate analogs to measure exposure to fire-regime change; quantified the direction and spatial distribution of changes in burn severity; and intersected exposure with fire-resistance trait data. We measured exposure as multivariate dissimilarities between contemporary distributions of fire frequency, burn severity, and vegetation productivity and distributions supported by a 2 °C-warmer climate. We project exposure to fire-regime change across 65% of western US conifer forests and mean burn severity to ultimately decline across 63% because of feedbacks with forest productivity and fire frequency. We find that forests occupying disparate portions of climate space are vulnerable to projected fire-regime changes. Forests may adapt to future disturbance regimes, but trajectories remain uncertain.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.MIROC.MIROC6.historical' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The MIROC6 climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: SPRINTARS6.0, atmos: CCSR AGCM (T85; 256 x 128 longitude/latitude; 81 levels; top level 0.004 hPa), land: MATSIRO6.0, ocean: COCO4.9 (tripolar primarily 1deg; 360 x 256 longitude/latitude; 63 levels; top grid cell 0-2 m), seaIce: COCO4.9. The model was run by the JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan), AORI (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8564, Japan), NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan), and R-CCS (RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Hyogo 650-0047, Japan) (MIROC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

The dataset contains artificial phenological observations of 17 species from 2009 to 2018 and consists of a woody plant subset and an herbaceous plant subset. A total of 97 pieces of woody plant subset data records phenological information such as leaf bud breaking phase, leaf unfolding phase, first bloom phase, full flowering phase, fruit or seed ripening phase, leaf turning to autumn color phase and leaf falling phase. A total of 66 pieces of herbaceous plant subset data records phenological information such as germination or turning green phase, flowering phase, fruit or seed ripening phase, seed dispersal phase and autumn wilting phase. The dataset contains artificial phenological observations of 17 species from 2009 to 2018 and consists of a woody plant subset and an herbaceous plant subset. A total of 97 pieces of woody plant subset data records phenological information such as leaf bud breaking phase, leaf unfolding phase, first bloom phase, full flowering phase, fruit or seed ripening phase, leaf turning to autumn color phase and leaf falling phase. A total of 66 pieces of herbaceous plant subset data records phenological information such as germination or turning green phase, flowering phase, fruit or seed ripening phase, seed dispersal phase and autumn wilting phase.