• Energy Research
• Social Sciences and Humanities Rese... close
• Sustainability close

This article is motivated by a conundrum: How can shale gas development be encouraged and managed without complete knowledge of the associated risks? To answer this question, we used back propagation (BP) neural networks and expert scoring to quantify the relative risks of shale gas development across 12 provinces in China. The results show that the model performs well with high predictive accuracy. Shale gas development risks in the provinces of Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Jiangsu are relatively high (0.4~0.6), while risks in the provinces of Xinjiang, Guizhou, Yunnan, Anhui, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi are even higher (0.6~1). We make several recommendations based on our findings. First, the Chinese government should promote shale gas development in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Jiangsu Provinces, while considering environmental, health, and safety risks by using demonstration zones to test new technologies and tailor China’s regulatory structures to each province. Second, China’s extremely complex geological conditions and resource depths prevent direct application of North American technologies and techniques. We recommend using a risk analysis prioritization method, such as BP neural networks, so that policymakers can quantify the relative risks posed by shale gas development to optimize the allocation of resources, technology and infrastructure development to minimize resource, economic, technical, and environmental risks. Third, other shale gas industry developments emphasize the challenges of including the many parties with different, often conflicting expectations. Government and enterprises must collaboratively collect and share information, develop risk assessments, and consider risk management alternatives to support science-based decision-making with the diverse parties.

This article is motivated by a conundrum: How can shale gas development be encouraged and managed without complete knowledge of the associated risks? To answer this question, we used back propagation (BP) neural networks and expert scoring to quantify the relative risks of shale gas development across 12 provinces in China. The results show that the model performs well with high predictive accuracy. Shale gas development risks in the provinces of Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Jiangsu are relatively high (0.4~0.6), while risks in the provinces of Xinjiang, Guizhou, Yunnan, Anhui, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi are even higher (0.6~1). We make several recommendations based on our findings. First, the Chinese government should promote shale gas development in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Jiangsu Provinces, while considering environmental, health, and safety risks by using demonstration zones to test new technologies and tailor China’s regulatory structures to each province. Second, China’s extremely complex geological conditions and resource depths prevent direct application of North American technologies and techniques. We recommend using a risk analysis prioritization method, such as BP neural networks, so that policymakers can quantify the relative risks posed by shale gas development to optimize the allocation of resources, technology and infrastructure development to minimize resource, economic, technical, and environmental risks. Third, other shale gas industry developments emphasize the challenges of including the many parties with different, often conflicting expectations. Government and enterprises must collaboratively collect and share information, develop risk assessments, and consider risk management alternatives to support science-based decision-making with the diverse parties.

Numerous studies have found that travel mode choice is related to mode-specific attitudes as well as travel-related satisfaction. While choosing a travel mode that is congruent with attitudes towards that mode (i.e., consonance) brings about travel satisfaction, travel-related satisfaction can result in the choice of a travel mode which is not necessarily consistent with (all) attitudes (i.e., dissonance). However, few studies have analyzed the extent to which consonance and dissonance affect or are affected by the overall travel-related satisfaction. This paper aims at understanding whether respondents with a positive attitude towards a certain mode will actually use the mode, and whether consonant travelers are more satisfied with their trips and travel-related situations compared to their dissonant counterparts. Additionally, research in this area is dominated by the use of quantitative methods, leading to a lack of understanding of the complexity of subjective factors such as attitudes and values. In this study, with a retrospective mixed method approach, 1977 (in the quantitative section) and 19 (in the qualitative section) employees who have experienced an involuntary relocation of their workplace have been examined vis-à-vis their travel-related values and attitudes, corresponding choices, and satisfaction. Results from our quantitative analyses indicate that first, the relocation of the workplace was associated with increased public transit use and travel satisfaction; and second, surprisingly, the share of dissonant active mode users was relatively high compared to other modes (except bus). Our qualitative analyses revealed that individuals do not necessarily use the most positively valued travel mode due to lack of accessibility and competences, but also due to having preferences for other travel-related elements such as travel route. Furthermore, travel mode consonance (or dissonance) and travel satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) are not necessarily positively related because (i) individuals attribute different weights to their travel-related attitudes and values, and (ii) satisfaction in other life domains can make a travel dissatisfaction bearable or even favorable.

Numerous studies have found that travel mode choice is related to mode-specific attitudes as well as travel-related satisfaction. While choosing a travel mode that is congruent with attitudes towards that mode (i.e., consonance) brings about travel satisfaction, travel-related satisfaction can result in the choice of a travel mode which is not necessarily consistent with (all) attitudes (i.e., dissonance). However, few studies have analyzed the extent to which consonance and dissonance affect or are affected by the overall travel-related satisfaction. This paper aims at understanding whether respondents with a positive attitude towards a certain mode will actually use the mode, and whether consonant travelers are more satisfied with their trips and travel-related situations compared to their dissonant counterparts. Additionally, research in this area is dominated by the use of quantitative methods, leading to a lack of understanding of the complexity of subjective factors such as attitudes and values. In this study, with a retrospective mixed method approach, 1977 (in the quantitative section) and 19 (in the qualitative section) employees who have experienced an involuntary relocation of their workplace have been examined vis-à-vis their travel-related values and attitudes, corresponding choices, and satisfaction. Results from our quantitative analyses indicate that first, the relocation of the workplace was associated with increased public transit use and travel satisfaction; and second, surprisingly, the share of dissonant active mode users was relatively high compared to other modes (except bus). Our qualitative analyses revealed that individuals do not necessarily use the most positively valued travel mode due to lack of accessibility and competences, but also due to having preferences for other travel-related elements such as travel route. Furthermore, travel mode consonance (or dissonance) and travel satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) are not necessarily positively related because (i) individuals attribute different weights to their travel-related attitudes and values, and (ii) satisfaction in other life domains can make a travel dissatisfaction bearable or even favorable.

With increased participation of non-state actors in global governance, the inclusion of vulnerable groups in making sustainability regulations remains a relevant challenge requiring more research. Based on an ethnographic study on creating the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing of biological resources and knowledge, we advance a new multi-dimensional view of inclusion that integrates sustained access, involvement, and influence in the intergovernmental negotiation meetings. We elaborate the concept of decisive spaces, that is, less accessible settings where diverse actors interact in a deliberative way to co-produce recommendations and solutions to an issue that highly influence the regulatory and governance decisions. We argue that the inclusion of vulnerable actors depends on their continuous access to and involvement in these decisive spaces for creating and implementing transnational regulations. Our findings advance the understanding of inclusion for addressing challenges facing transnational governance of environmental, equity, and social justice issues.

With increased participation of non-state actors in global governance, the inclusion of vulnerable groups in making sustainability regulations remains a relevant challenge requiring more research. Based on an ethnographic study on creating the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing of biological resources and knowledge, we advance a new multi-dimensional view of inclusion that integrates sustained access, involvement, and influence in the intergovernmental negotiation meetings. We elaborate the concept of decisive spaces, that is, less accessible settings where diverse actors interact in a deliberative way to co-produce recommendations and solutions to an issue that highly influence the regulatory and governance decisions. We argue that the inclusion of vulnerable actors depends on their continuous access to and involvement in these decisive spaces for creating and implementing transnational regulations. Our findings advance the understanding of inclusion for addressing challenges facing transnational governance of environmental, equity, and social justice issues.

Urban planners now commonly advocate for increases in density of the built environment to reduce car dependence and enhance the sustainability of cities. The analysis in this paper asks about the speed at which density as a sustainability policy can be implemented. The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) is used as a case study to measure how quickly existing areas could be densified to meet minimum transit supportive density thresholds. Almost 70% of existing residents live in neighborhoods with densities below minimum transit supportive densities. The findings show that increases in minimum densities could be attained roughly within the target time horizon of existing growth plans, but that these increases hinge on assumptions of continuing high growth rates. The sustainability of cities relies on a high ‘velocity of density’, a term proposed in the paper to refer to the speed at which density can be implemented. Density is often slowed or halted by local residents, which could prove problematic if sustainability objectives require speedy implementation, for instance to address climate change. Analysis of the velocity of density suggests that planning for sustainability, and climate change, in cities would benefit from considering a broader set of solutions to car dependence in existing low-density areas than changes to the density of the built form alone.