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We have limited knowledge on the impact of hydrometeorological conditions on dengue incidence in China and its associated disease burden in a future with a changed climate. This study projects the excess risk of dengue caused by climate change-induced hydrometeorological conditions across mainland China.In this modelling study, the historical association between the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and dengue was estimated with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model from 70 cities. The association combined with the dengue-transmission biological model was used to project the annual excess risk of dengue related to PDSI by 2100 across mainland China, under three representative concentration pathways ([RCP] 2·6, RCP 4·5, and RCP 8·5).93 101 dengue cases were reported between 2013 and 2019 in mainland China. Dry and wet conditions within 3 months lag were associated with increased risk of dengue. Locations with potential dengue risk in China will expand in the future. The hydrometeorological changes are projected to substantially affect the risk of dengue in regions with mid-to-low latitudes, especially the coastal areas under high emission scenarios. By 2100, the annual average increased excess risk is expected to range from 12·56% (95% empirical CI 9·54-22·24) in northwest China to 173·62% (153·15-254·82) in south China under the highest emission scenario.Hydrometeorological conditions are predicted to increase the risk of dengue in the future in the south, east, and central areas of mainland China in disproportionate patterns. Our findings have implications for the preparation of public health interventions to minimise the health hazards of non-optimal hydrometeorological conditions in a context of climate change.National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Acute and chronic alcohol exposure significantly affect behavior but the underlying neurobiological mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here, we used functional connectivity density (FCD) mapping to study alcohol-related changes in resting brain activity and their association with behavior. Heavy drinkers (HD, N=16, 16 males) and normal controls (NM, N=24, 14 males) were tested after placebo and after acute alcohol administration. Group comparisons showed that NM had higher FCD in visual and prefrontal cortices, default mode network regions and thalamus, while HD had higher FCD in cerebellum. Acute alcohol significantly increased FCD within the thalamus, impaired cognitive and motor functions, and affected self-reports of mood/drug effects in both groups. Partial least squares regression showed that alcohol-induced changes in mood/drug effects were associated with changes in thalamic FCD in both groups. Disruptions in motor function were associated with increases in cerebellar FCD in NM and thalamus FCD in HD. Alcohol-induced declines in cognitive performance were associated with connectivity increases in visual cortex and thalamus in NM, but in HD, increases in precuneus FCD were associated with improved cognitive performance. Acute alcohol reduced 'neurocognitive coupling', the association between behavioral performance and FCD (indexing brain activity), an effect that was accentuated in HD compared with NM. Findings suggest that reduced cortical connectivity in HD contribute to decline in cognitive abilities associated with heavy alcohol consumption, whereas increased cerebellar connectivity in HD may have compensatory effects on behavioral performance. The results reveal how drinking history alters the association between brain FCD and individual differences in behavioral performance.

This study aimed to investigate the antioxidant, antimicrobial, and cytotoxic potential of ethanolic extracts obtained from Gentiana asclepiadea L. and Inula helenium L. roots, in relation to their chemical composition. The total polyphenols, flavonoids, and phenolic acids were determined by spectrophotometric methods, while LC-MS analysis was used to evaluate the individual constituents. The antioxidant properties were tested using the FRAP and DPPH methods. The standard well diffusion and broth microdilution assays were carried out to establish in vitro antimicrobial efficacy and minimum inhibitory and bactericidal concentrations. The cytotoxicity was tested on rat intestinal epithelial cells using the MTT assay. The results pointed out important constituents such as secoiridoid glycoside (amarogentin), phenolic acids (caffeic acid, chlorogenic acid, trans-p-coumaric acid, salicylic acid), and flavonoids (apigenin, chrysin, luteolin, luteolin-7-O-glucoside, quercetin, rutoside, and naringenin) and promising antioxidant properties. The in vitro antimicrobial effect was noticed towards several pathogens (Bacillus cereus > Staphylococcus aureus > Enterococcus faecalis > Salmonella typhimurium and Salmonella enteritidis > Escherichia coli), with a pronounced bactericidal activity. Rat intestinal epithelial cell viability was not affected by the selected concentrations of these two extracts. These data support the ethnomedicinal recommendations of these species and highlight them as valuable sources of bioactive compounds.

AbstractDengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

It is predicted that the integration of climate-based early warning systems into existing action plans will facilitate the timely provision of interventions to diarrheal disease epidemics in resource-poor settings. Diarrhea remains a considerable public health problem in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam and we aimed to quantify variation in the impact of environmental conditions on diarrheal disease risk across the city. Using all inpatient diarrheal admissions data from three large hospitals within HCMC, we developed a mixed effects regression model to differentiate district-level variation in risk due to environmental conditions from the overarching seasonality of diarrheal disease hospitalization in HCMC. We identified considerable spatial heterogeneity in the risk of all-cause diarrhea across districts of HCMC with low elevation and differential responses to flooding, air temperature, and humidity driving further spatial heterogeneity in diarrheal disease risk. The incorporation of these results into predictive forecasting algorithms will provide a powerful resource to aid diarrheal disease prevention and control practices in HCMC and other similar settings.

West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus.With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population.External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future.Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.

Recent epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria have been observed in high-altitude areas of East Africa. Increased malaria incidence in these areas of unstable malaria transmission has been attributed to a variety of changes including global warming. To determine whether the reemergence of malaria in western Kenya could be attributed to changes in meteorologic conditions, we tested for trends in a continuous 30-year monthly malaria incidence dataset (1966-1995) obtained from complete hospital registers at a Kenyan tea plantation. Contemporary monthly meteorologic data (1966-1995) that originated from the tea estate meteorologic station and from global climatology records were also tested for trends. We found that total hospital admissions (malaria and nonmalaria) remained unchanged while malaria admissions increased significantly during the period. We also found that all meteorologic variables showed no trends for significance, even when combined into a monthly suitability index for malaria transmission. We conclude that climate changes have not caused the highland malaria resurgence in western Kenya.