• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close
• Frontiers in Environmental Science close
• Chinese Academy of Sciences close

Regional carbon emissions related to forest cover change (FCC) and wood harvest (WH) are critical for the accurate estimates of global carbon balance over an extended time period. Using remote sensing and inventory data, this study provides a comprehensive record of FCC, WH, and their integrated carbon emissions between 1908 and 2015 in the dry temperate regions of Pakistan. Results demonstrate a significant decline in forest area (21,034 ha) at an annual rate of 0.56% from 1973 to 2015. The total WH was 24.84 million m3 (0.23 million m3 yr−1) between 1908 and 2015. Deforestation was responsible for a net loss of 1.39 million Mg C (0.018 million Mg C yr−1), while WH-related carbon emissions accounted for 11.29 million Mg C (0.52 million Mg C yr−1). The present results indicate that under the existing FCC and WH harvest scenario, the forests are acting as a net source of 0.29 million Mg C yr−1. Agriculture expansion and the heavy dependency of local communities on the forest’s resources, exclusion of conservation and local communities from forest management, insufficient monitoring, and weak law-enforcement were the striking drivers of FCC, WH, and their related emissions. These findings suggest that to maintain forest carbon and meet the communities’ requirements, counter approaches such as agriculture incentives, agroforestry, trophy hunting, alternative energy sources, and inclusion of conservation and secure community-based management are needed.

Regional carbon emissions related to forest cover change (FCC) and wood harvest (WH) are critical for the accurate estimates of global carbon balance over an extended time period. Using remote sensing and inventory data, this study provides a comprehensive record of FCC, WH, and their integrated carbon emissions between 1908 and 2015 in the dry temperate regions of Pakistan. Results demonstrate a significant decline in forest area (21,034 ha) at an annual rate of 0.56% from 1973 to 2015. The total WH was 24.84 million m3 (0.23 million m3 yr−1) between 1908 and 2015. Deforestation was responsible for a net loss of 1.39 million Mg C (0.018 million Mg C yr−1), while WH-related carbon emissions accounted for 11.29 million Mg C (0.52 million Mg C yr−1). The present results indicate that under the existing FCC and WH harvest scenario, the forests are acting as a net source of 0.29 million Mg C yr−1. Agriculture expansion and the heavy dependency of local communities on the forest’s resources, exclusion of conservation and local communities from forest management, insufficient monitoring, and weak law-enforcement were the striking drivers of FCC, WH, and their related emissions. These findings suggest that to maintain forest carbon and meet the communities’ requirements, counter approaches such as agriculture incentives, agroforestry, trophy hunting, alternative energy sources, and inclusion of conservation and secure community-based management are needed.

Air temperature is the primary indicator of climate change. Reanalysis temperature products are important datasets for temperature estimates over high-elevation areas with few meteorological stations. However, they contain biases in observations, so a bias correction is required to enhance the accuracy of modeling predictions. In this study, we used the temperature lapse-rate method to correct ERA-Interim reanalysis-temperature data in the Qilian Mountains of China from 1979 to 2017. These temperature lapse rates were based on observations (ΓObs) and on model internal vertical lapse rates derived from different ERA-Interim pressure levels (ΓERA). The results showed that the temperature lapse rates in warm periods were larger than those in cold periods. Both the original and corrected ERA-Interim temperature can significantly capture the warming trend exhibited by observations. In general, the temperature lapse rate method was reliable for correcting ERA-interim reanalysis-temperature data. Although ΓObs performed best in bias correction, it depends heavily on the density of ground observation stations and is not appropriate for remote areas with a low data coverage. Correction methods based on ΓERA were shown to be reliable for bias correction, and will be especially applicable to mountainous areas with few observation stations. Our results contribute to the improvement of quality of data products and enhance the accuracy of modeling of climate change effects and risks to the environment and human health.

Air temperature is the primary indicator of climate change. Reanalysis temperature products are important datasets for temperature estimates over high-elevation areas with few meteorological stations. However, they contain biases in observations, so a bias correction is required to enhance the accuracy of modeling predictions. In this study, we used the temperature lapse-rate method to correct ERA-Interim reanalysis-temperature data in the Qilian Mountains of China from 1979 to 2017. These temperature lapse rates were based on observations (ΓObs) and on model internal vertical lapse rates derived from different ERA-Interim pressure levels (ΓERA). The results showed that the temperature lapse rates in warm periods were larger than those in cold periods. Both the original and corrected ERA-Interim temperature can significantly capture the warming trend exhibited by observations. In general, the temperature lapse rate method was reliable for correcting ERA-interim reanalysis-temperature data. Although ΓObs performed best in bias correction, it depends heavily on the density of ground observation stations and is not appropriate for remote areas with a low data coverage. Correction methods based on ΓERA were shown to be reliable for bias correction, and will be especially applicable to mountainous areas with few observation stations. Our results contribute to the improvement of quality of data products and enhance the accuracy of modeling of climate change effects and risks to the environment and human health.

Prediction of bond return is a classic problem in financial area, providing an important basis for portfolio construction and risk management. The sustainable investment attribute of green bonds has been favored by investors, so that green bonds have become an important component for major asset allocation. However, due to the specific investment focus of green bonds, investors’ return expectations are influenced not only by traditional corporate bond factors, but also by related factors such as climate change and energy transition. Against the backdrop of increasingly severe climate risks and the global energy crisis, this paper analyses the volatility characteristics of China’s green bonds at multiple time scales, and introduces exogenous variables such as returns of the alternative financial assets, climate risks and returns of energy markets for prediction. Based on the LSTM model, the volatility of green bond yield at different time scales is separately predicted using optimal exogenous variable before integration. It is found that the new integrated prediction model can significantly improve the forecasting performance compared to traditional single LSTM models and simple decomposition-integrated models. Further, both climate risks and energy markets variables have a significant improvement effect on predicting green bond in low-frequency item, while energy markets variables also have a better predictive effect on trend items. Building on the use of only LSTM model, it could be further enhanced by integrating more algorithms to select the best single model for each component, further improve the prediction accuracy and provide a more effective quantitative tool for investment decision-making and risk management in related fields.

Prediction of bond return is a classic problem in financial area, providing an important basis for portfolio construction and risk management. The sustainable investment attribute of green bonds has been favored by investors, so that green bonds have become an important component for major asset allocation. However, due to the specific investment focus of green bonds, investors’ return expectations are influenced not only by traditional corporate bond factors, but also by related factors such as climate change and energy transition. Against the backdrop of increasingly severe climate risks and the global energy crisis, this paper analyses the volatility characteristics of China’s green bonds at multiple time scales, and introduces exogenous variables such as returns of the alternative financial assets, climate risks and returns of energy markets for prediction. Based on the LSTM model, the volatility of green bond yield at different time scales is separately predicted using optimal exogenous variable before integration. It is found that the new integrated prediction model can significantly improve the forecasting performance compared to traditional single LSTM models and simple decomposition-integrated models. Further, both climate risks and energy markets variables have a significant improvement effect on predicting green bond in low-frequency item, while energy markets variables also have a better predictive effect on trend items. Building on the use of only LSTM model, it could be further enhanced by integrating more algorithms to select the best single model for each component, further improve the prediction accuracy and provide a more effective quantitative tool for investment decision-making and risk management in related fields.

Introduction: More than 16% of the total electricity used worldwide is met by hydropower, having local to regional environmental consequences. With positive indicators that energy is becoming more broadly available and sustainable, the world is moving closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). Pakistan became the first nation to include the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in its national development strategy.Methodology: The current study sought to investigate the structural limits of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines for hydropower development in Pakistan. The study included the document review of the EIA reports about hydropower projects in Pakistan, scientific questionnaires from decision-makers, and public consultation.Results and Discussion: The document evaluates that an adequate mechanism is available, and donors like the Asian Development Bank and World Bank observe the implementation process of EIA in Pakistan. However, a comprehensive analysis of the EIA system found several things that could be improved, not only in the institutional framework but also in actual implementation and practices. More than 20% of respondent decision-makers disagreed with the compliance of the current Institutional Framework with EIA guidelines, and 25% think that the existing guidelines followed in Pakistan are not aligned with international standards and practices for Hydropower in actual practice. EIA has a limited impact on decision-making due to insufficient technical and financial resources.Recommendations: There should be a think tank with experts who can meet the needs of present and future epochs. The public should be communicated with and educated about EIA. For better efficiency, the officers and decision-makers should be trained internationally, i.e., the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).

Introduction: More than 16% of the total electricity used worldwide is met by hydropower, having local to regional environmental consequences. With positive indicators that energy is becoming more broadly available and sustainable, the world is moving closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). Pakistan became the first nation to include the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in its national development strategy.Methodology: The current study sought to investigate the structural limits of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines for hydropower development in Pakistan. The study included the document review of the EIA reports about hydropower projects in Pakistan, scientific questionnaires from decision-makers, and public consultation.Results and Discussion: The document evaluates that an adequate mechanism is available, and donors like the Asian Development Bank and World Bank observe the implementation process of EIA in Pakistan. However, a comprehensive analysis of the EIA system found several things that could be improved, not only in the institutional framework but also in actual implementation and practices. More than 20% of respondent decision-makers disagreed with the compliance of the current Institutional Framework with EIA guidelines, and 25% think that the existing guidelines followed in Pakistan are not aligned with international standards and practices for Hydropower in actual practice. EIA has a limited impact on decision-making due to insufficient technical and financial resources.Recommendations: There should be a think tank with experts who can meet the needs of present and future epochs. The public should be communicated with and educated about EIA. For better efficiency, the officers and decision-makers should be trained internationally, i.e., the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).