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AbstractEcologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90‐year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide‐ranging species, at the slow end of the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for population regulation and the evolution of life histories.

AbstractForest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration ofPicea schrenkianaforest growth since 1960s in theATEof Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand‐total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from theATEbetween the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from theCFB. All the sampledP.schrenkianaforest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in theCFBhas sped up much slower than that in theATE. The speedup of forest growth at theATEis mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition withinthe CFBmight have restricted forest growth there more than that within theATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in theATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming‐induced treeline dynamics.

AbstractVegetation productivity first increases and then decreases with temperature; and temperature corresponding to the maximum productivity is called optimal temperature (Topt). In this study, we used satellite derived near‐infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) data to map Topt of vegetation productivity at the spatial resolution of 0.1° on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of most sensitive regions in the climate system. The average Topt of non‐forest vegetation on the TP is about 14.7°C, significantly lower than the Topt value used in current ecosystem models. A remarkable geographical heterogeneity in Topt is observed over the TP. Higher Topt values generally appear in the north‐eastern TP, while the south‐western TP has relatively lower Topt (<10°C), in line with the difference of climate conditions and topography across different regions. Spatially, Topt tends to decrease by 0.41°C per 100 m increase in elevation, faster than the elevational elapse rate of growing season temperature, implying a potential CO2 regulation of Topt in addition to temperature acclimation. Topt increases by 0.66°C for each 1°C of rising mean annual temperature as a result of vegetation acclimation to climate change. However, at least at the decadal scale, there is no significant change in Topt between 2000s and 2010s, suggesting that the Topt climate acclimation may not keep up with the warming rate. Finally, future (2091–2100) warming could be close to and even surpass Topt on the TP under different RCP scenarios without considering potential climate acclimation. Our analyses imply that the temperature tipping point when the impact of future warming shifts from positive to negative on the TP is greatly overestimated by current vegetation models. Future research needs to include varying thermal and CO2 acclimation effects on Topt across different time scales in vegetation models.

AbstractThe magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993–2012 (with years 2005–2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.

AbstractSummer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log‐linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below‐average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above‐average temperatures, the long‐term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early‐flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late‐flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects.

AbstractClimate change and globalization affect the suitable conditions for agricultural crops and insect pests, threatening future food security. It remains unknown whether shifts in species’ climatic suitability will be linear or rather non‐linear, with crop exposure to pests suddenly increasing when a critical temperature threshold is crossed. Moreover, uncertainty of forecasts can arise because of the modelling approach based either on species distribution data or on physiological measurements. Here, we compared the predictions of two modelling approaches (physiological models and species distribution models) for forecasting the potential distribution of agricultural insect pests in Europe. Despite conceptual differences, we found good agreement overall between the two approaches. We further identified a potential regime change in pest pressure along a temperature gradient. With both modelling approaches, we found an inflection point in the number of pest species with suitable climatic conditions around a minimum temperature of the coldest month of −3°C. Our results could help decision‐makers anticipate the onset of rising pest pressure and provide support for intensifying surveillance measures, particularly in regions where temperatures are already beyond the inflection point.

AbstractGlobal warming has significantly affected terrestrial ecosystems. Biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry of plants and soil is crucial for enhancing plant productivity, improving human nutrition, and regulating biogeochemical cycles. However, the effect of warming on the biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry of different components (plant, leaf, stem, root, litter, soil, and microbial biomass) in various terrestrial ecosystems remains uncertain. We conducted a comprehensive meta‐analysis to investigate the global patterns of biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry responses to warming, as well as interaction relationships based on 1399 paired observations from 105 warming studies. Results indicated that warming had a significant impact on various aspects of plant growth, including an increase in plant biomass (+16.55%), plant C:N ratio (+4.15%), leaf biomass (+16.78%), stem biomass (+23.65%), root biomass (+22.00%), litter C:N ratio (+9.54%) and soil C:N ratio (+5.64%). However, it also decreased stem C:P ratio (−23.34%), root C:P ratio (−12.88%), soil N:P ratio (−14.43%) and soil C:P ratio (−16.33%). The magnitude of warming was the primary drivers of changes of biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry. By establishing the general response curves of changes in biomass and C:N:P ratios with increasing temperature, we demonstrated that warming effect on plant, root, and litter biomass shifted from negative to positive, whereas that on leaf and stem biomass changed from positive to negative as temperature increased. Additionally, the effect of warming on root C:N ratio, root biomass, and microbial biomass N:P ratios shifted from positive to negative, whereas the effects on plant N:P, leaf N:P, leaf C:P, root N:P ratios, and microbial biomass C:N ratio changed from negative to positive with increasing temperature. Our research can help assess plant productivity and optimize ecosystem stoichiometry precisely in the context of global warming.

AbstractHigher temperatures caused by future climate change will bring more frequent heat stress events and pose an increasing risk to global wheat production. Crop models have been widely used to simulate future crop productivity but are rarely tested with observed heat stress experimental datasets. Four wheat models (DSSAT‐CERES‐Wheat,DSSAT‐Nwheat,APSIM‐Wheat, and WheatGrow) were evaluated with 4 years of environment‐controlled phytotron experimental datasets with two wheat cultivars under heat stress at anthesis and grain filling stages. Heat stress at anthesis reduced observed grain numbers per unit area and individual grain size, while heat stress during grain filling mainly decreased the size of the individual grains. The observed impact of heat stress on grain filling duration, total aboveground biomass, grain yield, and grain protein concentration (GPC) varied depending on cultivar and accumulated heat stress. For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30–0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37–0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0–1.6%, butGPCwas increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30. The tested crop simulation models could reproduce some of the observed reductions in grain filling duration, final total aboveground biomass, and grain yield, as well as the observed increase inGPCdue to heat stress. Most of the crop models tended to reproduce heat stress impacts better during grain filling than at anthesis. Some of the tested models require improvements in the response to heat stress during grain filling, but all models need improvements in simulating heat stress effects on grain set during anthesis. The observed significant genetic variability in the response of wheat to heat stress needs to be considered through cultivar parameters in future simulation studies.