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AbstractClimate change and globalization affect the suitable conditions for agricultural crops and insect pests, threatening future food security. It remains unknown whether shifts in species’ climatic suitability will be linear or rather non‐linear, with crop exposure to pests suddenly increasing when a critical temperature threshold is crossed. Moreover, uncertainty of forecasts can arise because of the modelling approach based either on species distribution data or on physiological measurements. Here, we compared the predictions of two modelling approaches (physiological models and species distribution models) for forecasting the potential distribution of agricultural insect pests in Europe. Despite conceptual differences, we found good agreement overall between the two approaches. We further identified a potential regime change in pest pressure along a temperature gradient. With both modelling approaches, we found an inflection point in the number of pest species with suitable climatic conditions around a minimum temperature of the coldest month of −3°C. Our results could help decision‐makers anticipate the onset of rising pest pressure and provide support for intensifying surveillance measures, particularly in regions where temperatures are already beyond the inflection point.

AbstractGlobal warming has significantly affected terrestrial ecosystems. Biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry of plants and soil is crucial for enhancing plant productivity, improving human nutrition, and regulating biogeochemical cycles. However, the effect of warming on the biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry of different components (plant, leaf, stem, root, litter, soil, and microbial biomass) in various terrestrial ecosystems remains uncertain. We conducted a comprehensive meta‐analysis to investigate the global patterns of biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry responses to warming, as well as interaction relationships based on 1399 paired observations from 105 warming studies. Results indicated that warming had a significant impact on various aspects of plant growth, including an increase in plant biomass (+16.55%), plant C:N ratio (+4.15%), leaf biomass (+16.78%), stem biomass (+23.65%), root biomass (+22.00%), litter C:N ratio (+9.54%) and soil C:N ratio (+5.64%). However, it also decreased stem C:P ratio (−23.34%), root C:P ratio (−12.88%), soil N:P ratio (−14.43%) and soil C:P ratio (−16.33%). The magnitude of warming was the primary drivers of changes of biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry. By establishing the general response curves of changes in biomass and C:N:P ratios with increasing temperature, we demonstrated that warming effect on plant, root, and litter biomass shifted from negative to positive, whereas that on leaf and stem biomass changed from positive to negative as temperature increased. Additionally, the effect of warming on root C:N ratio, root biomass, and microbial biomass N:P ratios shifted from positive to negative, whereas the effects on plant N:P, leaf N:P, leaf C:P, root N:P ratios, and microbial biomass C:N ratio changed from negative to positive with increasing temperature. Our research can help assess plant productivity and optimize ecosystem stoichiometry precisely in the context of global warming.

AbstractHigher temperatures caused by future climate change will bring more frequent heat stress events and pose an increasing risk to global wheat production. Crop models have been widely used to simulate future crop productivity but are rarely tested with observed heat stress experimental datasets. Four wheat models (DSSAT‐CERES‐Wheat,DSSAT‐Nwheat,APSIM‐Wheat, and WheatGrow) were evaluated with 4 years of environment‐controlled phytotron experimental datasets with two wheat cultivars under heat stress at anthesis and grain filling stages. Heat stress at anthesis reduced observed grain numbers per unit area and individual grain size, while heat stress during grain filling mainly decreased the size of the individual grains. The observed impact of heat stress on grain filling duration, total aboveground biomass, grain yield, and grain protein concentration (GPC) varied depending on cultivar and accumulated heat stress. For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30–0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37–0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0–1.6%, butGPCwas increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30. The tested crop simulation models could reproduce some of the observed reductions in grain filling duration, final total aboveground biomass, and grain yield, as well as the observed increase inGPCdue to heat stress. Most of the crop models tended to reproduce heat stress impacts better during grain filling than at anthesis. Some of the tested models require improvements in the response to heat stress during grain filling, but all models need improvements in simulating heat stress effects on grain set during anthesis. The observed significant genetic variability in the response of wheat to heat stress needs to be considered through cultivar parameters in future simulation studies.

AbstractHydrological connectivity regulates the structure and function of Amazonian freshwater ecosystems and the provisioning of services that sustain local populations. This connectivity is increasingly being disrupted by the construction of dams, mining, land‐cover changes, and global climate change. This review analyzes these drivers of degradation, evaluates their impacts on hydrological connectivity, and identifies policy deficiencies that hinder freshwater ecosystem protection. There are 154 large hydroelectric dams in operation today, and 21 dams under construction. The current trajectory of dam construction will leave only three free‐flowing tributaries in the next few decades if all 277 planned dams are completed. Land‐cover changes driven by mining, dam and road construction, agriculture and cattle ranching have already affected ~20% of the Basin and up to ~50% of riparian forests in some regions. Global climate change will likely exacerbate these impacts by creating warmer and dryer conditions, with less predictable rainfall and more extreme events (e.g., droughts and floods). The resulting hydrological alterations are rapidly degrading freshwater ecosystems, both independently and via complex feedbacks and synergistic interactions. The ecosystem impacts include biodiversity loss, warmer stream temperatures, stronger and more frequent floodplain fires, and changes to biogeochemical cycles, transport of organic and inorganic materials, and freshwater community structure and function. The impacts also include reductions in water quality, fish yields, and availability of water for navigation, power generation, and human use. This degradation of Amazonian freshwater ecosystems cannot be curbed presently because existing policies are inconsistent across the Basin, ignore cumulative effects, and overlook the hydrological connectivity of freshwater ecosystems. Maintaining the integrity of these freshwater ecosystems requires a basinwide research and policy framework to understand and manage hydrological connectivity across multiple spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries.

AbstractNortheast China (NEC) accounts for about 30% of the nation's maize production in China. In the past three decades, maize yields in NEC have increased under changes in climate, cultivar selection and crop management. It is important to investigate the contribution of these changing factors to the historical yield increases to improve our understanding of how we can ensure increased yields in the future. In this study, we use phenology observations at six sites from 1981 to 2007 to detect trends in sowing dates and length of maize growing period, and then combine these observations with in situ temperature data to determine the trends of thermal time in the maize growing period, as a measure of changes in maize cultivars. The area in the vicinity of these six sites accounts for 30% of NEC's total maize production. The agricultural production systems simulator, APSIM‐Maize model, was used to separate the impacts of changes in climate, sowing dates and thermal time requirements on maize phenology and yields. In NEC, sowing dates trended earlier in four of six sites and maturity dates trended later by 4–21 days. Therefore, the period from sowing to maturity ranged from 2 to 38 days longer in 2007 than it was in 1981. Our results indicate that climate trends alone would have led to a negative impact on maize. However, results from the adaptation assessments indicate that earlier sowing dates increased yields by up to 4%, and adoption of longer season cultivars caused a substantial increase in yield ranging from 13% to 38% over the past 27 years. Therefore, earlier sowing dates and introduction of cultivars with higher thermal time requirements in NEC have overcome the negative effects of climate change and turned what would have otherwise been a loss into a significant increase in maize yield.

AbstractDisentangling biotic and abiotic drivers of wild mushroom fruiting is fraught with difficulties because mycelial growth is hidden belowground, symbiotic and saprotrophic supply strategies may interact, and myco‐ecological observations are often either discontinuous or too short. Here, we compiled and analyzed 115 417 weekly fungal fruit body counts from permanent Swiss inventories between 1975 and 2006. Mushroom fruiting exhibited an average autumnal delay of 12 days after 1991 compared with before, the annual number of fruit bodies increased from 1801 to 5414 and the mean species richness doubled from 10 to 20. Intra‐ and interannual coherency of symbiotic and saprotrophic mushroom fruiting, together with little agreement between mycorrhizal yield and tree growth suggests direct climate controls on fruit body formation of both nutritional modes. Our results contradict a previously reported declining of mushroom harvests and propose rethinking the conceptual role of symbiotic pathways in fungi‐host interaction. Moreover, this conceptual advancement may foster new cross‐disciplinary research avenues, and stimulate questions about possible amplifications of the global carbon cycle, as enhanced fungal production in moist mid‐latitude forests rises carbon cycling and thus increases greenhouse gas exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere.

AbstractWill warming lead to an increased use of older soil organic carbon (SOC) by microbial communities, thereby inducing C losses from C‐rich alpine soils? We studied soil microbial community composition, activity, and substrate use after 3 and 4 years of soil warming (+4 °C, 2007–2010) at the alpine treeline in Switzerland. The warming experiment was nested in a free air CO2 enrichment experiment using depleted 13CO2 (δ13C = −30‰, 2001–2009). We traced this depleted 13C label in phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) of the organic layer (0–5 cm soil depth) and in C mineralized from root‐free soils to distinguish substrate ages used by soil microorganisms: fixed before 2001 (‘old’), from 2001 to 2009 (‘new’) or in 2010 (‘recent’). Warming induced a sustained stimulation of soil respiration (+38%) without decline in mineralizable SOC. PLFA concentrations did not reveal changes in microbial community composition due to soil warming, but soil microbial metabolic activity was stimulated (+66%). Warming decreased the amount of new and recent C in the fungal biomarker 18:2ω6,9 and the amount of new C mineralized from root‐free soils, implying a shift in microbial substrate use toward a greater use of old SOC. This shift in substrate use could indicate an imbalance between C inputs and outputs, which could eventually decrease SOC storage in this alpine ecosystem.

AbstractPredicting future carbon (C) dynamics in grassland ecosystems requires knowledge of how grazing and global climate change (e.g., warming, elevated CO2, increased precipitation, drought, and N fertilization) interact to influence C storage and release. Here, we synthesized data from 223 grassland studies to quantify the individual and interactive effects of herbivores and climate change on ecosystem C pools and soil respiration (Rs). Our results showed that grazing overrode global climate change factors in regulating grassland C storage and release (i.e., Rs). Specifically, grazing significantly decreased aboveground plant C pool (APCP), belowground plant C pool (BPCP), soil C pool (SCP), and Rs by 19.1%, 6.4%, 3.1%, and 4.6%, respectively, while overall effects of all global climate change factors increased APCP, BPCP, and Rs by 6.5%, 15.3%, and 3.4% but had no significant effect on SCP. However, the combined effects of grazing with global climate change factors also significantly decreased APCP, SCP, and Rs by 4.0%, 4.7%, and 2.7%, respectively but had no effect on BPCP. Most of the interactions between grazing and global climate change factors on APCP, BPCP, SCP, and Rs were additive instead of synergistic or antagonistic. Our findings highlight the dominant effects of grazing on C storage and Rs when compared with the suite of global climate change factors. Therefore, incorporating the dominant effect of herbivore grazing into Earth System Models is necessary to accurately predict climate–grassland feedbacks in the Anthropocene.