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Scientific, educational, cultural and educational network Journal

Scientific, educational, cultural and educational network Journal

Relevance. The urgent task of the technical and economic development of the Northern and Eastern regions of Russia is to provide reliable and efficient power supply to consumers, geographically located in remote, hard-to-reach areas. The use of wind power plants is a promising way to solve this problem. The primary task of the design and feasibility study of the use of wind power plants is to predict changes in wind speeds at the site of the power plant installation. The stochastic nature of the wind and its spatiotemporal variability explain the high complexity of this problem, for the solution of which the methods of mathematical modeling are used. The known models of wind speed based on Markov chains, autoregressive moving-average and other discrete models do not allow varying the time step, which does not allow their use for simulation of operating modes of wind turbines and wind energy systems. The article proposes a model of wind speed based on the stochastic differential equation which eliminates this drawback. The aim of the study is to construct wind speed model based on fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with a periodic long-term mean, which provides modeling of static and dynamic modes of operation of a wind power plant at different time intervals. Methods: mathematical and computer modeling using Matlab/Simulink software environment. Results. The proposed model, in contrast to the known SDE-based models, is able to produce autocorrelated wind speed trajectories with long-term dependence, daily and monthly variations to perform more detailed simulation of the operating modes of wind turbines at different time intervals with the required time step. The model was tested using the data of climatic observations of wind speed obtained from electronic archive of the All-Russian Institute of Hydrometeorological Information. The model adequacy was evaluated by comparing characteristics of simulated wind speed trajectories with actual observations collected at 518 weather stations located on territory of Russia.

Relevance. The urgent task of the technical and economic development of the Northern and Eastern regions of Russia is to provide reliable and efficient power supply to consumers, geographically located in remote, hard-to-reach areas. The use of wind power plants is a promising way to solve this problem. The primary task of the design and feasibility study of the use of wind power plants is to predict changes in wind speeds at the site of the power plant installation. The stochastic nature of the wind and its spatiotemporal variability explain the high complexity of this problem, for the solution of which the methods of mathematical modeling are used. The known models of wind speed based on Markov chains, autoregressive moving-average and other discrete models do not allow varying the time step, which does not allow their use for simulation of operating modes of wind turbines and wind energy systems. The article proposes a model of wind speed based on the stochastic differential equation which eliminates this drawback. The aim of the study is to construct wind speed model based on fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with a periodic long-term mean, which provides modeling of static and dynamic modes of operation of a wind power plant at different time intervals. Methods: mathematical and computer modeling using Matlab/Simulink software environment. Results. The proposed model, in contrast to the known SDE-based models, is able to produce autocorrelated wind speed trajectories with long-term dependence, daily and monthly variations to perform more detailed simulation of the operating modes of wind turbines at different time intervals with the required time step. The model was tested using the data of climatic observations of wind speed obtained from electronic archive of the All-Russian Institute of Hydrometeorological Information. The model adequacy was evaluated by comparing characteristics of simulated wind speed trajectories with actual observations collected at 518 weather stations located on territory of Russia.

Tariffs for energy and energy resources are the main factors determining the sustainable development of the economy. The aim of the paper is to determine and compare the dynamics evolution of the tariffs for thermal energy and the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP).The data on the heat consumption and tariff change in the city of Chisinau were examined in monetary terms and in relative units compared to the base year 2009. The higher the tariffs, the more part of the GDP, characterized in the economy by the volume of "Output", is spent on "Intermediate consumption (PP)". The difference between "Output" and "Intermediate consumption" volumes is the "gross added value (VAB)", which is the main component of GDP. The analysis of the changes in the real GDP volume of the Republic of Moldova and the increase of the tariffs for the years 2009-2017 (taking into account the GDP forecast for 2018) show that the increase in the tariffs for thermal energy significantly exceeded the real GDP growth. Considering that the planned GDP growth is 4,7% and taking into account the change in the consumer price index (inflation rate), the calculated reduction of the thermal energy tariff in Chisinau is estimated at 28% compared to the existing value, so to 803 lei / Gcal compared to the currently regulated value of 1122 lei / Gcal. The conclusion was reached on the opportunity of applying the proposed methodology to justify current tariffs and in the near future not only extends to thermal energy tariffs, but also for other types of energy, material resources and services in the field of production and social sphere.

Tariffs for energy and energy resources are the main factors determining the sustainable development of the economy. The aim of the paper is to determine and compare the dynamics evolution of the tariffs for thermal energy and the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP).The data on the heat consumption and tariff change in the city of Chisinau were examined in monetary terms and in relative units compared to the base year 2009. The higher the tariffs, the more part of the GDP, characterized in the economy by the volume of "Output", is spent on "Intermediate consumption (PP)". The difference between "Output" and "Intermediate consumption" volumes is the "gross added value (VAB)", which is the main component of GDP. The analysis of the changes in the real GDP volume of the Republic of Moldova and the increase of the tariffs for the years 2009-2017 (taking into account the GDP forecast for 2018) show that the increase in the tariffs for thermal energy significantly exceeded the real GDP growth. Considering that the planned GDP growth is 4,7% and taking into account the change in the consumer price index (inflation rate), the calculated reduction of the thermal energy tariff in Chisinau is estimated at 28% compared to the existing value, so to 803 lei / Gcal compared to the currently regulated value of 1122 lei / Gcal. The conclusion was reached on the opportunity of applying the proposed methodology to justify current tariffs and in the near future not only extends to thermal energy tariffs, but also for other types of energy, material resources and services in the field of production and social sphere.

The paper presents the assumptions for the computer simulation of a forest fire in accordance with digital topographic map of forests and short-term weather forecast. To conduct the simulation, a software has been created. The software includes deterministic mathematical model of a forest fire. Input data have been extracted from the short-term weather forecast and the digital forest maps. The application range covers both planning of a controlled fire, e.g. in cases when the fires are intentionally started by the forest services to get rid of accumulated forest material, as well as to plan extinguishing actions and to plan appropriate disposal of resources during the extinguishing of a forest fire. Creation of the described simulation environment arises from the need of optimum planning of the extinguishing actions in local fire service centers. The initial risk assessment in the stage of planning the extinguishing action, will allow efficient management of equipment by the local units. It also prevents from repeating wrong decisions made in the early stages. This need imposes limiting the use of equipment platforms to medium class PC’s. The outcomes of the paper provides accessibility of a tool supporting the decision making process and assessing the damages in the high risk conditions of a forest fire. Furthermore, conducting a simulation allows to estimate the need for fire fighting equipment in the case of total and border extinguishing of a fire, for different weather conditions, considering fire density. В работе представлены рекомендации для компьютерной симуляции лесного пожара, основанной на цифровой топографической информации о лесах и краткосрочном прогнозе погоды. Для проведения симуляции было создано программное обеспечение, содержащее детерминированную математическую модель лесного пожара. Входные данные были получены из краткосрочного прогноза погоды и цифровых карт лесов. Область применения симуляции планирование контролируемого пожара, намеренно вызванного лесными службами с целью удаления избытка собранного лесного материала, а также планирование пожаротушащих работ и распределение ресурсов во время тушения лесного пожара. Создание данного инструмента симуляции обосновано необходимостью оптимально планировать пожартушащие работы в местных центрах пожарной службы. Ранняя оценка риска на этапе планирования пожаротушащей работы позволит эффекитвно рапределять средства местными центрами и предотвратить ошибки при принятии решений на ранних этапах. Вышеуказанная необходимость вынуждает ограничить применение оборудования до персональных компьютеров среднего класса. Результат работы обеспечивает доступность инструмента, поддерживающего принятие решений и оценки потерь в условиях повышенной угрозы лесного пожара. Кроме того, симуляция позволяет оценить необходимое количество средств для тушения целой территории, охваченной пожаром или только её края при разных погодных условиях, с учётем огневой нагрузки данного участка.

The paper presents the assumptions for the computer simulation of a forest fire in accordance with digital topographic map of forests and short-term weather forecast. To conduct the simulation, a software has been created. The software includes deterministic mathematical model of a forest fire. Input data have been extracted from the short-term weather forecast and the digital forest maps. The application range covers both planning of a controlled fire, e.g. in cases when the fires are intentionally started by the forest services to get rid of accumulated forest material, as well as to plan extinguishing actions and to plan appropriate disposal of resources during the extinguishing of a forest fire. Creation of the described simulation environment arises from the need of optimum planning of the extinguishing actions in local fire service centers. The initial risk assessment in the stage of planning the extinguishing action, will allow efficient management of equipment by the local units. It also prevents from repeating wrong decisions made in the early stages. This need imposes limiting the use of equipment platforms to medium class PC’s. The outcomes of the paper provides accessibility of a tool supporting the decision making process and assessing the damages in the high risk conditions of a forest fire. Furthermore, conducting a simulation allows to estimate the need for fire fighting equipment in the case of total and border extinguishing of a fire, for different weather conditions, considering fire density. В работе представлены рекомендации для компьютерной симуляции лесного пожара, основанной на цифровой топографической информации о лесах и краткосрочном прогнозе погоды. Для проведения симуляции было создано программное обеспечение, содержащее детерминированную математическую модель лесного пожара. Входные данные были получены из краткосрочного прогноза погоды и цифровых карт лесов. Область применения симуляции планирование контролируемого пожара, намеренно вызванного лесными службами с целью удаления избытка собранного лесного материала, а также планирование пожаротушащих работ и распределение ресурсов во время тушения лесного пожара. Создание данного инструмента симуляции обосновано необходимостью оптимально планировать пожартушащие работы в местных центрах пожарной службы. Ранняя оценка риска на этапе планирования пожаротушащей работы позволит эффекитвно рапределять средства местными центрами и предотвратить ошибки при принятии решений на ранних этапах. Вышеуказанная необходимость вынуждает ограничить применение оборудования до персональных компьютеров среднего класса. Результат работы обеспечивает доступность инструмента, поддерживающего принятие решений и оценки потерь в условиях повышенной угрозы лесного пожара. Кроме того, симуляция позволяет оценить необходимое количество средств для тушения целой территории, охваченной пожаром или только её края при разных погодных условиях, с учётем огневой нагрузки данного участка.

In the contemporary world, the anthropogenic effect is increasing. At the same time, the quality of life of the population is strongly associated with the environmental quality, as there is growing understanding that rising economic income does not ensure the humanity’s well-being. In this regard, issues connected with analysing the influence of the anthropogenic factor on changes in the quality of the life of the population become relevant. We believe that existing approaches to assessing the quality of life poorly reflect the current situation related to the speed of the environmental changes due to an increase in the scale and intensity of its pollution. Therefore, for assessing the quality of life, we suggest taking into account the environmental and energy components of the anthropogenic factor. To this end, the classification of anthropogenic factors is supplemented by the “industrial production” group, distinguished by the “source of impact” indicator, which allows analysing the group’s influence on changing parameters of the quality of life of the population. The methodological basis of the study is a comprehensive approach to assessing the quality of life. Based on it, we structured the stages of the evolution of approaches to measuring and assessing the quality of life of the population. Moreover, we described key features of these approaches, and identified the fourth stage that substantiates the priority of environmental and energy criteria in assessing the quality of life. We propose to improve the methodology for assessing the quality of life of the population by introducing additional environmental and energy characteristics. The article presents the results of using this improved methodology. We tested it on the examples of the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions. The obtained values of the integral indicators of the quality of life of the population show that the Sverdlovsk region has lower index values. That happened due to a more developed industrial sector and, as a result, the more deteriorated environmental situation. The proposed methodology for assessing the quality of life of the population can be used by regional leaders for making decisions related to the regional development aimed at improving the quality of life of the population. © 2019 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Рассмотрена систематизация подходов к определению и оценке качества жизни. Показаны этапы эволюции подходов к измерению и оценке качества жизни населения. Проанализировано влияние антропогенных факторов промышленного производства на качество жизни населения Свердловской Челябинской областей.