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According to the renewable energy directive 2009/28/EC, the European Union Member States should increase by 2020 the use of renewable energy to 20% of gross final energy consumption and to reach a mandatory share of 10% renewable energy in the transport sector. This study aims to quantify the impact of 2020 bioenergy targets on the land use in the EU, based on the projections of the National Renewable Action Plans in four scenarios: Scenario 1. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs; Scenario 2. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs, no second generation biofuels; Scenario 3. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs, reduced import of biofuels and bioliquids; Scenario 4. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs, high imports of biofuels and bioliquids. This study also considers the credit for co-products generated from biofuel production. The analysis reveals that the land used in the EU for bioenergy would range between 13.5 Mha and 25.2 Mha in 2020. This represent between 12.2% and 22.5% of the total arable land used and 7.3% and 13.5% of the Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA). In the NREAPS scenario, about 17.4 Mha would be used for bioenergy production, representing 15.7% of arable land and 9.4% of UAA. The increased demand from biofuels would lead to an increased generation of co-products, replacing conventional fodder for animal feed. Considering the co-products, the land used for bioenergy would range between 8.8 Mha and 15.0 Mha in 2020 in the various scenarios. This represent between 7.9% and 13.3% of the total arable land used in the EU and 4.7% and 8.0% of the UAA. In the NREAPS scenario, when co-products are considered, about 10.3 Mha would be used for biofuels, bioliquids and bioenergy production, representing 9.3% of arable land and 5.6% of agricultural land. This study further provides detailed data on the impact on land use in each Member State.

The Severn Estuary has the world's second largest tide range and a barrage across the estuary, located just seawards of Cardiff in Wales and Weston in the South West England, has been proposed for over half a century, with the objective of extracting large amounts of tidal energy. A Severn Barrage, as previously proposed by the Severn Tidal Power Group (STPG), would be the largest renewable energy project for tidal power generation in the world, if built as proposed, and would generate approximately 5% of the UK's electricity needs. However, concerns have been raised over the environmental impacts of such a barrage, including potential increase in flood risk, loss of intertidal habitats etc. In addressing the challenges of maximizing the energy output and minimizing the environmental impacts of such a barrage, this research study has focused on using a Continental Shelf model, based on the modified Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) with a barrage operation module (EFDC_B), to investigate both the far and near field hydrodynamic impacts of a barrage for different operating scenarios. Three scenarios have been considered to simulate the Severn Barrage, operating via two-way generation and using different combinations of turbines and sluices. The first scenario consisted of 216 turbines and 166 sluices installed along the barrage; the second consisted of 382 turbines with no sluices; and the third consisted of 764 turbines and no sluices. The specification of the sluice gates and turbines are the same for all scenarios. The model results indicate that the third scenario has the best mitigating effects for the far-field and near-field flood risks caused by a barrage and produces the most similar results of minimum water depth and maximum velocity distributions to those obtained from simulating the natural conditions of the estuary, i.e. the current conditions. The results also show that the flow patterns around the barrage are closest to those for the existing natural conditions with minimal slight changes in the estuary. Thus, the results clearly indicate that the environmental impacts of a Severn Barrage can be minimized if the barrage is operated for two-way generation and under the third scenario. Although it appears that the energy output for the third scenario is less than that obtained for the other two scenarios, if very low head (VLH) turbines are used, then the third scenario could generate more energy as more turbines could be cited along the barrage structure. Therefore, the study shows that a Severn Barrage, operating in two-way generation and with 764 turbines (ideally VLH turbines), would be the best option to meet the needs of maximizing the energy output, but having a minimal impact on environmental changes in the estuary and far-field.

Plants exhibit plasticity in response to their current environment and, in some cases, to that of the previous generation (i.e. maternal effects). However, few studies have evaluated both within- and between-generation plasticities and the extent to which they interact to influence fitness, especially in natural environments. The plasticity of adult traits to two generations of natural differences in light was determined for Campanulastrum americanum, a forest-edge herb that expresses annual and biennial life histories. Plasticity was found to an individual's light environment (within generation) and the maternal light environment (between generations). Responses to ambient light for size traits and timing of flowering were probably passive, whereas apparently adaptive responses were found for light acquisition traits. Maternal light influenced the expression of most adult traits but had the strongest effect when plants were germinated in natural environments. The transgenerational effects of light were consistent with adaptive plasticity for several traits. Plastic within-generation changes in flowering time may also result in adaptive between-generation effects by altering the offspring life history schedule. Finally, the results underscore the importance of conducting studies of within- and between-generation plasticity in natural populations, where the environmental context is relevant to that in which the traits evolved.

Abstract In recent years living walls have increasingly spread, thus becoming a diffuse architectural envelope cladding technology. Consequently, a more precise understanding of their thermal behavior and impact on the building energy balance are needed. One of the most important effects provided by the use of living walls is the shading of the building envelope, with clear benefits during the cooling period. Furthermore, many features characterize the thermal behavior of living walls, namely plant species, leaf area index (LAI), evapotranspiration, emissivity and air cavity type. All these particular characteristics have been accounted in the mathematical model developed in the frame of the presented research, whose aim is to provide a tool for the prediction of the thermal behavior of living walls. Two kinds of living walls, one with grass and closed air cavity and the other one with vertical garden and open air cavity were considered. The results achieved by means of the developed model show a good agreement with the measurements also supported by model efficiency indexes such as Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSEC). Values of around 0.7 were obtained for the NSEC index for both the investigated living walls.

The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.

• Premise of the study: Climate change is associated with phenological shifts in an increasing number of organisms worldwide. However, accurate estimates of these shifts are dependent on long‐term data sets that include phenological observations from before annual average temperatures began to rise.• Methods: We compared the first flowering times of native prairie plants between 2007 and 2010 with historical data recorded by O. A. Stevens from 1910 to 1961. By merging climate variable data from the same time period, it also was possible to correlate first flowering dates with associated climate variables.• Key results: Over the past 100 years, spring temperatures in the Red River Valley near Fargo, North Dakota, USA, have increased, and growing seasons have lengthened significantly. Seventy‐five percent of the 178 species observed by Stevens had flowering times that were sensitive to at least one variable related to temperature or precipitation. Over the past 4 yr, 5% to 17% of the species observed have significantly shifted their first flowering time either earlier or later relative to the previous century.• Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that as spring temperatures in the northern Great Plains have increased and the growing season has lengthened, some spring flowering species have advanced their first flowering time, some fall species have delayed their first flowering, and some species have not changed. Given the importance of flowering timing for reproductive success, the changing climate in the Great Plains is expected to have long‐term ecological and evolutionary consequences for native plant species.

The leafy seadragon certainly is among evolution's most "beautiful and wonderful" species aptly named for its extraordinary camouflage mimicking its coastal seaweed habitat. However, limited information is known about the genetic basis of its phenotypes and conspicuous camouflage. Here, we revealed genomic signatures of rapid evolution and positive selection in core genes related to its camouflage, which allowed us to predict population dynamics for this species. Comparative genomic analysis revealed that seadragons have the smallest olfactory repertoires among all ray-finned fishes, suggesting adaptations to the highly specialized habitat. Other positively selected and rapidly evolving genes that serve in bone development and coloration are highly expressed in the leaf-like appendages, supporting a recent adaptive shift in camouflage appendage formation. Knock-out of bmp6 results in dysplastic intermuscular bones with a significantly reduced number in zebrafish, implying its important function in bone formation. Global climate change-induced loss of seagrass beds now severely threatens the continued existence of this enigmatic species. The leafy seadragon has a historically small population size likely due to its specific habitat requirements that further exacerbate its vulnerability to climate change. Therefore, taking climate change-induced range shifts into account while developing future protection strategies.

AbstractCoral reefs across the world have been seriously degraded and have a bleak future in response to predicted global warming and ocean acidification (OA). However, this is not the first time that biocalcifying organisms, including corals, have faced the threat of extinction. The end‐Triassic mass extinction (200 million years ago) was the most severe biotic crisis experienced by modern marine invertebrates, which selected against biocalcifiers; this was followed by the proliferation of another invertebrate group, sponges. The duration of this sponge‐dominated period far surpasses that of alternative stable‐ecosystem or phase‐shift states reported on modern day coral reefs and, as such, a shift to sponge‐dominated reefs warrants serious consideration as one future trajectory of coral reefs. We hypothesise that some coral reefs of today may become sponge reefs in the future, as sponges and corals respond differently to changing ocean chemistry and environmental conditions. To support this hypothesis, we discuss: (i) the presence of sponge reefs in the geological record; (ii) reported shifts from coral‐ to sponge‐dominated systems; and (iii) direct and indirect responses of the sponge holobiont and its constituent parts (host and symbionts) to changes in temperature andpH. Based on this evidence, we propose that sponges may be one group to benefit from projected climate change and ocean acidification scenarios, and that increased sponge abundance represents a possible future trajectory for some coral reefs, which would have important implications for overall reef functioning.

Response of aquatic organisms to eutrophication have been well reported, while less studies are available for the recovery of eutrophic lakes following a reduction in the external loading, especially for systems where nitrogen is reduced but the phosphorus concentration is maintained high due to internal loading. Diatoms are nitrate (NO3-N) opportunists but can also use ammonium (NH4-N). They may, therefore, be more sensitive to nitrogen reduction than other algae that typically prefer NH4-N. We document the variations of nutrients and diatoms in subtropical, eutrophic Lake Taihu over 28 yr during which a reduction of the external loading resulted from lake management. According to the results of change point analysis, data on environmental variables were divided into two periods (P1: 1992-2006; P2: 2007-2019) with two different seasons (WS: Winter-Spring; SA: Summer-Autumn), respectively. Compared with P1-WS, the concentration of NH4-N decreased significantly whereas NO3-N showed no significant change in P2-WS. In contrast, NH4-N concentrations were low and showed no significant changes in P1-SA and P2-SA and NO3-N decreased significantly in the latter period. Accordingly, NO3-N: NH4-N mass ratios in P1-SA and P2-WS were all significantly higher than those in P2-SA and P1-WS, respectively. The biomass of WS diatom increased significantly and the timing of the peak biomass shifted from P1-SA to P2-WS since 2007. The SEM analysis showed that NO3-N was retained as a statistically significant predictor for diatom biomass in P1-SA and significant effects of windspeed, zooplankton and NH4-N on diatom biomass in P2-WS. Windspeed and zooplankton have further changed the biomass of diatoms in the case of declining inorganic nitrogen. We conclude that the magnitude of vernal suppression or stimulation of diatom assemblages has increased, concomitant with the variations of NH4-N and NO3-N: NH4-N mass ratios. Diatoms response to NH4-N or NO3-N is apparently changing in response to water temperature in this eutrophic shallow lake. Thus, parallel reductions in external nitrogen loading, along with variations in dominant inorganic nitrogen, will stimulate the growth of diatom and therefore increase the total biomass of phytoplankton in still high internal phosphorus loading, which is should be regarded as a good sign of restoration measures.