• Energy Research
• 6. Clean water close
• Oceanography close

At both regional and national levels, there is an urgent need to develop a clear picture of how climate change will alter multiple environmental properties in the ocean. Specifically, what will such cumulative alterations mean for local biological productivity, ecosystem services, climate feedbacks, and related effects ranging from biodiversity to economics? Currently, a wide range of confounding issues, such as the plethora and complexity of information in the public domain, hinders accommodating climate change into future planning and development of ocean resource management strategies. This impediment is especially true at the regional level, for example, within national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), where critical management decisions are made but for which substantial uncertainty clouds climate change projections and ecosystem impact assessments. Evaluating the susceptibility of a nation’s marine resources to climate change requires knowledge of the geographic and seasonal variations in environmental properties over an EEZ and the range, spatial patterns, and uncertainty of projected climate change in those properties (Boyd et al., 2007). Furthermore, information is needed on the climate sensitivity of the biological species or strains that comprise particular marine resources (Boyd et al., 2007; Nye et al., 2009) and/or contribute to food-web interactions, and also on potential implications for human resource exploitation patterns and intensity.

Alterations to the global water cycle are of concern as Earth’s climate changes. Although policymakers are mainly interested in changes to terrestrial rainfall—where, when, and how much it’s going to rain—the largest component of the global water cycle operates over the ocean where nearly all of Earth’s free water resides. Approximately 80% of Earth’s surface freshwater fluxes occur over the ocean; its surface salinity responds to changing evaporation and precipitation patterns by displaying salty or fresh anomalies. The salinity field integrates sporadic surface fluxes over time, and after accounting for ocean circulation and mixing, salinity changes resulting from long-term alterations to surface evaporation and precipitation are evident. Thus, ocean salinity measurements can provide insights into water-cycle operation and its long-term change. Although poor observational coverage and an incomplete view of the interaction of all water-cycle components limits our understanding, climate models are beginning to provide insights that are complementing observations. This new information suggests that the global water cycle is rapidly intensifying.

Climate, energy, and food security are three of the greatest challenges society faces this century. Solutions for mitigating the effects of climate change often conflict with solutions for ensuring society’s future energy and food requirements. For example, BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) has been proposed as an important method for achieving negative CO2 emissions later this century while simultaneously producing renewable energy on a global scale. However, BECCS has many negative environmental consequences for land, nutrient, and water use as well as biodiversity and food production. In contrast, large-scale industrial cultivation of marine microalgae can provide society with a more environmentally favorable approach for meeting the climate goals agreed to at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, producing the liquid hydrocarbon fuels required by the global transportation sector, and supplying much of the protein necessary to feed a global population approaching 10 billion people.

The modern industrialized and urbanized world, dubbed the "Anthropocene" by Paul Crutzen (2006), includes the past 250 years of multiple human impacts. Nobel Prize winner and atmospheric chemist Crutzen states: During the past 3 centuries human population increased tenfold to 6,000 million, growing by a factor of four during the past century alone. More than half of all accessible fresh water is used by mankind. Fisheries remove more than 25% of the primary production of the oceans in the upwelling regions and 35% in the temperature continental shelf regions. 30–50% of the world's land surface has been transformed by human action. Coastal wetlands have lost 50% of the world's mangroves. More nitrogen is now fixed synthetically and applied as fertilizers in agriculture than fixed naturally in all terrestrial ecosystems. Many of the world's rivers have been dammed or diverted.

The dynamics of shallow-water coastal environments are controlled by external drivers—sea level rise, storms, and sediment and nutrient supplies—and by internal feedbacks. Interactions of biotic processes (vegetation growth, trophic dynamics) and abiotic drivers can lead to nonlinear responses to changing conditions and to the emergence of thresholds, hysteresis, and alternative stable states. We develop a conceptual framework for studying interactions between the dynamics of marshes and habitats in shallow coastal bays with unconsolidated sediments (seagrass, oyster reefs). Using examples primarily from the Virginia Coast Reserve Long Term Ecological Research site, we show that in the subtidal part of the landscape, two alternative stable states can exist—one dominated by seagrass up to a certain depth that represents a tipping point to the second, unvegetated stable state. The depth limit of the seagrass stable state is influenced by (1) the positive feedback of vegetation on reducing sediment suspension and improving the light environment for growth, (2) climate (e.g., temperature), and (3) water quality. Two stable states are also present in intertidal areas, with salt marshes lying above mean sea level and tidal flats below mean sea level. State transitions are driven by sediment availability, sea level rise, the relative strength of wind waves with respect to tidal currents, and the biotic feedback of vegetation on sediment stabilization and accretion. State-change dynamics in one system may propagate to adjacent systems, and this coupling may influence the landscape-scale response to environmental change. Seagrass meadows and oyster reefs affect adjacent marshes both positively (wave attenuation) and negatively (reduced sediment supply), and marsh-edge erosion could negatively influence the light environment for seagrass growth. Forecasting the resilience of coastal ecosystems and the landscape-scale response to environmental change in the next century requires an understanding of nonlinear dynamics, including the possibility of multiple stable states, the coupled evolution of adjacent systems, and potential early warning signs of thresholds of change.