• Energy Research
• 13. Climate action close
• 14. Life underwater close
• 11. Sustainability close
• Global Change Biology close

AbstractCoral reefs across the world have been seriously degraded and have a bleak future in response to predicted global warming and ocean acidification (OA). However, this is not the first time that biocalcifying organisms, including corals, have faced the threat of extinction. The end‐Triassic mass extinction (200 million years ago) was the most severe biotic crisis experienced by modern marine invertebrates, which selected against biocalcifiers; this was followed by the proliferation of another invertebrate group, sponges. The duration of this sponge‐dominated period far surpasses that of alternative stable‐ecosystem or phase‐shift states reported on modern day coral reefs and, as such, a shift to sponge‐dominated reefs warrants serious consideration as one future trajectory of coral reefs. We hypothesise that some coral reefs of today may become sponge reefs in the future, as sponges and corals respond differently to changing ocean chemistry and environmental conditions. To support this hypothesis, we discuss: (i) the presence of sponge reefs in the geological record; (ii) reported shifts from coral‐ to sponge‐dominated systems; and (iii) direct and indirect responses of the sponge holobiont and its constituent parts (host and symbionts) to changes in temperature andpH. Based on this evidence, we propose that sponges may be one group to benefit from projected climate change and ocean acidification scenarios, and that increased sponge abundance represents a possible future trajectory for some coral reefs, which would have important implications for overall reef functioning.

AbstractThe change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960–2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade−1 ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade−1 for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade−1, while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade−1. For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s–2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s–2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R = −0.33, P < 0.05).

AbstractOcean warming is altering the biogeographical distribution of marine organisms. In the tropics, rising sea surface temperatures are restructuring coral reef communities with sensitive species being lost. At the biogeographical divide between temperate and tropical communities, warming is causing macroalgal forest loss and the spread of tropical corals, fishes and other species, termed “tropicalization”. A lack of field research into the combined effects of warming and ocean acidification means there is a gap in our ability to understand and plan for changes in coastal ecosystems. Here, we focus on the tropicalization trajectory of temperate marine ecosystems becoming coral‐dominated systems. We conducted field surveys and in situ transplants at natural analogues for present and future conditions under (i) ocean warming and (ii) both ocean warming and acidification at a transition zone between kelp and coral‐dominated ecosystems. We show that increased herbivory by warm‐water fishes exacerbates kelp forest loss and that ocean acidification negates any benefits of warming for range extending tropical corals growth and physiology at temperate latitudes. Our data show that, as the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming ratchet up, marine coastal ecosystems lose kelp forests but do not gain scleractinian corals. Ocean acidification plus warming leads to overall habitat loss and a shift to simple turf‐dominated ecosystems, rather than the complex coral‐dominated tropicalized systems often seen with warming alone. Simplification of marine habitats by increased CO2 levels cascades through the ecosystem and could have severe consequences for the provision of goods and services.

AbstractCommunity re‐assembly following future disturbances will often occur under warmer and more moisture‐limited conditions than when current communities assembled. Because the establishment stage is regularly the most sensitive to climate and competition, the trajectory of recovery from disturbance in a changing environment is uncertain, but has important consequences for future ecosystem functioning. To better understand how ongoing warming and rising moisture limitation may affect recovery, we studied native and exotic plant composition 11 years following complete stand‐replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest spanning a large gradient in climatic moisture deficit (CMD) from warm and dry low elevation sites to relatively cool and moist higher elevations sites. We then projected future precipitation, temperature and CMD at our study locations for four scenarios selected to encompass a broad range of possible future conditions for the region. Native perennials dominated relatively cool and moist sites 11 years after wildfire, but were very sparse at the warmest and driest (high CMD) sites, particularly when combined with high topographic sun exposure. In contrast, exotic species (primarily annual grasses) were dominant or co‐dominant at the warmest and driest sites, especially with high topographic sun exposure. All future scenarios projected increasing temperature and CMD in coming decades (e.g., from 4.5% to 29.5% higher CMD by the 2080's compared to the 1971–2000 average), even in scenarios where growing season (May‐September) precipitation increased. These results suggest increasing temperatures and moisture limitation could facilitate longer term (over a decade) transitions toward exotic‐dominated communities after severe wildfire when a suitable exotic seed source is present.

AbstractDespite the general recognition that fragmentation can reduce forest biomass through edge effects, a systematic review of the literature does not reveal a clear role of edges in modulating biomass loss. Additionally, the edge effects appear to be constrained by matrix type, suggesting that landscape composition has an influence on biomass stocks. The lack of empirical evidence of pervasive edge‐related biomass losses across tropical forests highlights the necessity for a general framework linking landscape structure with aboveground biomass. Here, we propose a conceptual model in which landscape composition and configuration mediate the magnitude of edge effects and seed‐flux among forest patches, which ultimately has an influence on biomass. Our model hypothesizes that a rapid reduction of biomass can occur below a threshold of forest cover loss. Just below this threshold, we predict that changes in landscape configuration can strongly influence the patch's isolation, thus enhancing biomass loss. Moreover, we expect a synergism between landscape composition and patch attributes, where matrix type mediates the effects of edges on species decline, particularly for shade‐tolerant species. To test our conceptual framework, we propose a sampling protocol where the effects of edges, forest amount, forest isolation, fragment size, and matrix type on biomass stocks can be assessed both collectively and individually. The proposed model unifies the combined effects of landscape and patch structure on biomass into a single framework, providing a new set of main drivers of biomass loss in human‐modified landscapes. We argue that carbon trading agendas (e.g., REDD+) and carbon‐conservation initiatives must go beyond the effects of forest loss and edges on biomass, considering the whole set of effects on biomass related to changes in landscape composition and configuration.

AbstractUnderstanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land‐use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local‐scale effects, and includinga prioriknowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study.

AbstractSoil micronutrients are capital for the delivery of ecosystem functioning and food provision worldwide. Yet, despite their importance, the global biogeography and ecological drivers of soil micronutrients remain virtually unknown, limiting our capacity to anticipate abrupt unexpected changes in soil micronutrients in the face of climate change. Here, we analyzed >1300 topsoil samples to examine the global distribution of six metallic micronutrients (Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Co and Ni) across all continents, climates and vegetation types. We found that warmer arid and tropical ecosystems, present in the least developed countries, sustain the lowest contents of multiple soil micronutrients. We further provide evidence that temperature increases may potentially result in abrupt and simultaneous reductions in the content of multiple soil micronutrients when a temperature threshold of 12–14°C is crossed, which may be occurring on 3% of the planet over the next century. Altogether, our findings provide fundamental understanding of the global distribution of soil micronutrients, with direct implications for the maintenance of ecosystem functioning, rangeland management and food production in the warmest and poorest regions of the planet.