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Plot design and harvesting Twelve sampling plots (16 m × 16 m) in three P. deltoides plantations were established based on systematic random design. To minimize edge effects, surrounding rows were not considered during sampling. The age of the stands was 18-20 years old. In each sampling plot, the DBH (diameter at breast height 1.3 m above the ground) of the individual trees was measured with a caliper in two perpendicular directions and the mean DBH determined. Tree height was measured by Haglöf-Vertex IV hypsometer. Based on the DBH and height measurements, 10 DBH classes from 15 to 42 cm (3 cm intervals) were established. The value of each DBH class represented the central value (i.e., class 15 included all DBH from 12.5 to 17.5 cm). In each DBH class, one representative tree was selected and harvested for a total of 10 P. deltoides trees. Measurements of bark percentagesThe stems of harvested trees were marked and cut into 2 m-segments. The mid-length diameter of each segment was measured outside the bark in two perpendicular directions with a caliper to determine the mean diameter. A 5 cm-thick disc was cut from the middle of each segment. A total of 123 discs were obtained and brought to the laboratory. All the discs were arranged into 2-cm wide diameter classes. The value of each disc class represents the central value (i.e., class 20 included all discs whose diameters ranged from 19.5 to 20.5 cm). Bark was separated from the wood using a peeler knife for each disc. Fresh bark and wood were weighted separately, oven-dried at 80 °C until constant weight, and the oven-dry weight measured. The bark percentage of each disc was considered as bark percentage of a 2 m-segment for fresh and dry weight. Finally, the bark percentage of the whole stem in each DBH class was calculated by adding the 2 m-segments. Bark biomass as an energy source has a high economic value. Bark content variations and production helps recognize the potential of this bioenergy source spatially before harvesting. The percentage of fresh and dry bark in Populus deltoides grown under a monoculture system was examined in the temperate region of northern Iran. Diameter at breast height (DBH) and total height data were analyzed based on an initial inventory. Ten sample trees were felled, separated into 2 m-segments, and weighted in the field. A 5-cm-thick disc from each segment was extracted for determining fresh and dry bark percentages. These were statistically significantly different in disc diameter classes and decreased with increasing disc diameters. Bark percentage of the disc classes ranged from 21.8 to 24.4% in small-sized diameters to 8.1‒9.3% in large-sized diameters. The differences between fresh and dry bark percentages depended on water content variations. Allometric power equations were fitted to data of fresh and dry bark percentages and disc diameters as well as DBH. The values of R2 ranged from 0.89 to 0.90. In addition, allometric power equations provided the best fits for relationships between total stem dry biomass, dry bark biomass, and DBH, R2 = 0.986 and 0.979 for the total stem dry biomass and stem dry bark biomass, respectively. The allometric models can be used to estimate bark percentage and bark production of P. deltoides in segments and for the whole stem for a wide range of segment diameters (8‒44 cm) and DBH (15‒45 cm).

Although GPS coordinates for current populations are not included due to the potential threat of poaching, the climate variables for each species are provided. The records for extant gecko and skinks mainly came from the New Zealand's Department of Conervation Herpetofauna Database. After updating the taxonomy and cleaning the data to reflect the taxonomy as at 2019 of 43 geckos speceis recognised across seven genera and 61 species in genus, we then thinned the occurrence records at a 1 km resolution for all species then predicted distributions for those with > 15 records using species distribution models. The climate variables for each species were selected among annual mean temperature (bio1), maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9), mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio10), and precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17). To reduce multicollinearity in species distribution models for each species, we only retained climate variables with a variable inflation factor < 10. The climate variables were from the CHELSA database (https://chelsa-climate.org/), which can be freely downloaded for current and future scenarios. We also provide MCC tree files for the geckos and skinks. The phylogenetic trees have been constructed for NZ geckos by (Nielsen et al., 2011) and for NZ skinks by (Chapple et al., 2009). For geckos we used a subset of the sequences used by Nielsen et al. (2011) for four genes, two nuclear (RAG 1, PDC) and two mitochondrial (16S, ND2 along with flanking tRNA sequences). For skinks, we used sequences from Chapple et al. (2009) for one nuclear (RAG 1) and five mitochondrial (ND2, ND4, Cyt b, 12S and 16S) genes, and additional ND2 sequences for taxa not included in the original phylogeny (Chapple et al., 2011, p. 201). In total we used sequences for all recognised extant taxa (Hitchmough et al., 2016) as at 2019 except for three species of skink (O. aff. inconspicuum “Okuru”, O. robinsoni, and O. aff. inconspicuum “North Otago”) and two species of gecko (M. “Cupola” and W. “Kaikouras”) for which genetic data were not available. Aim: The primary drivers of species and population extirpations have been habitat loss, overexploitation, and invasive species, but human-mediated climate change is expected to be a major driver in future. To minimise biodiversity loss, conservation managers should identify species vulnerable to climate change and prioritise their protection. Here, we estimate climatic suitability for two speciose taxonomic groups, then use phylogenetic analyses to assess vulnerability to climate change. Location: Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) Taxa: NZ lizards: diplodactylid geckos and eugongylinae skinks Methods: We built correlative species distribution models (SDMs) for NZ geckos and skinks to estimate climatic suitability under current climate and 2070 future-climate scenarios. We then used Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models (BPMMs) to assess vulnerability for both groups with predictor variables for life history traits (body size and activity phase) and current distribution (elevation and latitude). We explored two scenarios: an unlimited dispersal scenario, where projections track climate, and a no-dispersal scenario, where projections are restricted to areas currently identified as suitable. Results: SDMs projected vulnerability to climate change for most modelled lizards. For species’ ranges projected to decline in climatically suitable areas, average decreases were between 42–45% for geckos and 33–91% for skinks, although area did increase or remain stable for a minority of species. For the no-dispersal scenario, the average decrease for geckos was 37–52% and for skinks was 33–52%. Our BPMMs showed phylogenetic signal in climate change vulnerability for both groups, with elevation increasing vulnerability for geckos, and body size reducing vulnerability for skinks. Main conclusions: NZ lizards showed variable vulnerability to climate change, with most species’ ranges predicted to decrease. For species whose suitable climatic space is projected to disappear from within their current range, managed relocation could be considered to establish populations in regions that will be suitable under future climates.

The atmosphere concentration of CO2 is steadily increasing and causing climate change. To achieve the Paris 1.5 or 2 oC target, negative emissions technologies must be deployed in addition to reducing carbon emissions. The ocean is a large carbon sink but the potential of marine primary producers to contribute to carbon neutrality remains unclear. Here we review the alterations to carbon capture and sequestration of marine primary producers (including traditional ‘blue carbon’ plants, microalgae, and macroalgae) in the Anthropocene, and, for the first time, assess and compare the potential of various marine primary producers to carbon neutrality and climate change mitigation via biogeoengineering approaches. The contributions of marine primary producers to carbon sequestration have been decreasing in the Anthropocene due to the decrease in biomass driven by direct anthropogenic activities and climate change. The potential of blue carbon plants (mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses) is limited by the available areas for their revegetation. Microalgae appear to have a large potential due to their ubiquity but how to enhance their carbon sequestration efficiency is very complex and uncertain. On the other hand, macroalgae can play an essential role in mitigating climate change through extensive offshore cultivation due to higher carbon sequestration capacity and substantial available areas. This approach seems both technically and economically feasible due to the development of offshore aquaculture and a well-established market for macroalgal products. Synthesis and applications: This paper provides new insights and suggests promising directions for utilizing marine primary producers to achieve the Paris temperature target. We propose that macroalgae cultivation can play an essential role in attaining carbon neutrality and climate change mitigation, although its ecological impacts need to be assessed further. To calculate the parameters presented in Table 1, the relevant keywords "mangroves, salt marshes, macroalgae, microalgae, global area, net primary productivity, CO2 sequestration" were searched through the ISI Web of Science and Google Scholar in July 2021. Recent data published after 2010 were collected and used since area and productivity of plants change with decade. For data with limited availability, such as net primary productivity (NPP) of seagrasses and global area and NPP of wild macroalgae, data collection was extended back to 1980. Total NPP and CO2 sequestration for mangroves, salt marshes, seagrasses and wild macroalgae were obtained by the multiplication of area and NPP/CO2 sequestration density and subjected to error propagation analysis. Data were expressed as means ± standard error.

Input files for the ForClim model (version 4.0.1) used in the associated paper. They can be used to to reproduce results of the simulation study. The ForClim model, including the source code, executable and documentation, is freely available under an Open Access license from the website of the original developers at https://ites-fe.ethz.ch/openaccess/. The original climatic dataset used to generate the ForClim input climate files at each site in South Tyrol is freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.924502 while the CHELSA climate data for future scenarios are available at https://www.chelsa-climate.org. If interested in using this dataset for a research study or a project, please contact Marco Mina ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Hillebrand L, Marzini S, Crespi A, Hiltner U & Mina M (2023) Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6, 2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1240235 ABSTRACT. Protection forests play a key role in protecting settlements, people, and infrastructures from gravitational hazards such as rockfalls and avalanches in mountain areas. Rapid climate change is challenging the role of protection forests by altering their dynamics, structure, and composition. Information on local- and regional-scale impacts of climate change on protection forests is critical for planning adaptations in forest management. We used a model of forest dynamics (ForClim) to assess the succession of mountain forests in the Eastern Alps and their protective effects under future climate change scenarios. We investigated eleven representative forest sites along an elevational gradient across multiple locations within an administrative region, covering wide differences in tree species structure, composition, altitude, and exposition. We evaluated protective performance against rockfall and avalanches using numerical indices (i.e., linker functions) quantifying the degree of protection from metrics of simulated forest structure and composition. Our findings reveal that climate warming has a contrasting impact on protective effects in mountain forests of the Eastern Alps. Climate change is likely to not affect negatively all protection forest stands but its impact depends on site and stand conditions. Impacts were highly contingent to the magnitude of climate warming, with increasing criticality under the most severe climate projections. Forests in lower-montane elevations and those located in dry continental valleys showed drastic changes in forest structure and composition due to drought-induced mortality while subalpine forests mostly profited from rising temperatures and a longer vegetation period. Overall, avalanche protection will likely be negatively affected by climate change, while the ability of forests to maintain rockfall protection depends on the severity of expected climate change and their vulnerability due to elevation and topography, with most subalpine forests less prone to loosing protective effects. Proactive measures in management should be taken in the near future to avoid losses of protective effects in the case of severe climate change in the Alps. Given the heterogeneous impact of climate warming, such adaptations can be aided by model-based projections and high local resolution studies to identify forest stand types that might require management priority for maintaining protective effects in the future.

Aim: We propose that forest trees create a vertical dimension for ecological niche variation that generates different regimes of climatic exposure, which in turn drives species elevation distributions. We test this hypothesis by statistically modelling the vertical and elevation distributions and microclimate exposure of rainforest ants. Location: Wet Tropics Bioregion, Australia Methods: We conducted 60 ground-to-canopy surveys to determine the vertical (tree) and elevation distributions, and microclimate exposure of ants (101 species) at 15 sites along four mountain ranges. We statistically modelled elevation range size as a function of ant species’ vertical niche breadth and exposure to temperature variance for 55 species found at two or more trees. Results: We found a positive association between vertical niche and elevation range of ant species: for every 3 m increase in vertical niche breadth our models predict a ~150% increase in mean elevation range size. Temperature variance increased with vertical height along the arboreal gradient and ant species exposure to temperature variance explained some of the variation in elevation range size. Main Conclusions: We demonstrate that arboreal ants have broader elevation ranges than ground-dwelling ants and are likely to have increased resilience to climatic variance. The capacity of species to expand their niche by climbing trees could influence their ability to persist over broader elevation ranges. We propose that wherever vertical layering exists - from oceans to forest ecosystems - vertical niche breadth is a potential mechanism driving macrogeographic distribution patterns and resilience to climate change. Data_collections.csv Main survey collections data in a site by species matrix showing all data for all sites surveyed. Tuna baited vials were placed every three metres from ground to canopy in trees at elevation sites at four subregion mountain ranges of the Australian Wet Tropics Bioregion. Note data file includes empty vials that lacked ants. Microclimate_AthertonTemp.csv This file contains Atherton Uplands temperature data from ibuttons deployed at one tree per elevation (200, 400, 600, 800, 1000) at every three metres in height in Dec-Jan 2017- 2018 set to record every half hour. See file Metadata for details of column names and data values.

Leaching dataset of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON), nitrate (NO3+) and ammonium (NH4+) were collected from 6 cropping treatments (corn, switchgrass, miscanthus, native grass mix, restored prairie and poplar) established in the Bioenergy Cropping System Experiment (BCSE) which is a part of Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (www.glbrc.org) and Long Termn Ecological Research (LTER) program (www.lter.kbs.msu.edu). The site is located at the W.K. Kellogg Biological Station (42.3956° N, 85.3749° W and 288 m above sea level), 25 km from Kalamazoo in southwestern Michigan, USA. Prenart soil water samplers made of Teflon and silica (http://www.prenart.dk/soil-water-samplers/) were installed in blocks 1 and 2 of the BCSE (Fig. S1), and Eijkelkamp soil water samplers made of ceramic (http://www.eijkelkamp.com) were installed in blocks 3 and 4 (there were no soil water samplers in block 5). All samplers were installed at 1.2 m depth at a 45° angle from the soil surface, approximately 20 cm into the unconsolidated sand of the 2Bt2 and 2E/Bt horizons. Beginning in 2009, soil water was sampled at weekly to biweekly intervals during non-frozen periods (April to November) by applying 50 kPa of vacuum for 24 hours, during which water was collected in glass bottles. During the 2009 and 2010 sampling periods we obtained fewer soil water samples from blocks 1 and 2 where Prenart lysimeters were installed. We observed no consistent differences between the two sampler types in concentrations of the analytes reported here. Depending on the volume of leachate collected, water samples were filtered using either 0.45 µm pore size, 33-mm-dia. cellulose acetate membrane filters when volumes were <50 ml, or 0.45 µm, 47-mm-dia. Supor 450 membrane filters for larger volumes. Samples were analyzed for NO3-, NH4+, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), and DOC. The NO3- concentration was determined using a Dionex ICS1000 ion chromatograph system with membrane suppression and conductivity detection; the detection limit of the system was 0.006 mg NO3--N L-1. The NH4+ concentration in the samples was determined using a Thermo Scientific (formerly Dionex) ICS1100 ion chromatograph system with membrane suppression and conductivity detection; the detection limit of the system was similar. The DOC and TDN concentrations were determined using a Shimadzu TOC-Vcph carbon analyzer with a total nitrogen module (TNM-1); the detection limit of the system was ~0.08 mg C L-1 and ~0.04 mg N L-1. DON concentrations were estimated as the difference between TDN and dissolved inorganic N (NO3- + NH4+) concentrations. The NH4+ concentrations were only measured in the 2013-2015 crop-years, but they were always small relative to NO3- and thus their inclusion or lack of it was inconsequential to the DON estimation. Leaching rates were estimated on a crop-year basis, defined as the period from planting or emergence of the crop in the year indicated through the ensuing year until the next year’s planting or emergence. For each sampling point, the concentration was linearly interpolated between sampling dates during non-freezing periods (April through November). The concentrations in the unsampled winter period (December through March) were also linearly interpolated based on the preceding November and subsequent April samples. Solute leaching (kg ha-1) was calculated by multiplying the daily solute concentration in pore-water (mg L -1) by the modeled daily drainage rates (m3 ha-1) from the overlying soil. The drainage rates were obtained using the SALUS (Systems Approach for Land Use Sustainability) model (Basso and Ritchie, 2015). SALUS simulates yield and environmental outcomes in response to weather, soil, management (planting dates, plant population, irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer application, tillage), and crop genetics. The SALUS water balance sub-model simulates surface run-off, saturated and unsaturated water flow, drainage, root water uptake, and evapotranspiration during growing and non-growing seasons (Basso and Ritchie, 2015). Drainage amounts and rates simulated by SALUS have been validated with measurements using large monolith lysimeters at a nearby site at KBS (Basso and Ritchie, 2005). On days when SALUS predicted no drainage, the leaching was assumed to be zero. The volume-weighted mean concentration for an entire crop-year was calculated as the sum of daily leaching (kg ha-1) divided by the sum of daily drainage rates (m3 ha-1). Weather data for the model were collected at the nearby KBS LTER meteorological station (lter.kbs.msu.edu). Leaching losses of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) from agricultural systems are important to water quality and carbon and nutrient balances but are rarely reported; the few available studies suggest linkages to litter production (DOC) and nitrogen fertilization (DON). In this study we examine the leaching of DOC, DON, NO3-, and NH4+ from no-till corn (maize) and perennial bioenergy crops (switchgrass, miscanthus, native grasses, restored prairie, and poplar) grown between 2009 and 2016 in a replicated field experiment in the upper Midwest U.S. Leaching was estimated from concentrations in soil water and modeled drainage (percolation) rates. DOC leaching rates (kg ha-1 yr-1) and volume-weighted mean concentrations (mg L-1) among cropping systems averaged 15.4 and 4.6, respectively; N fertilization had no effect and poplar lost the most DOC (21.8 and 6.9, respectively). DON leaching rates (kg ha-1 yr-1) and volume-weighted mean concentrations (mg L-1) under corn (the most heavily N-fertilized crop) averaged 4.5 and 1.0, respectively, which was higher than perennial grasses (mean: 1.5 and 0.5, respectively) and poplar (1.6 and 0.5, respectively). NO3- comprised the majority of total N leaching in all systems (59-92%). Average NO3- leaching (kg N ha-1 yr-1) under corn (35.3) was higher than perennial grasses (5.9) and poplar (7.2). NH4+ concentrations in soil water from all cropping systems were relatively low (<0.07 mg N L-1). Perennial crops leached more NO3- in the first few years after planting, and markedly less after. Among the fertilized crops, the leached N represented 14-38% of the added N over the study period; poplar lost the greatest proportion (38%) and corn was intermediate (23%). Requiring only one third or less of the N fertilization compared to corn, perennial bioenergy crops can substantially reduce N leaching and consequent movement into aquifers and surface waters. readme files are given that describe the data table

Patterns of movement of marine species can reflect strategies of reproduction and dispersal, species’ interactions, trophodynamics, and susceptibility to change, and thus critically inform how we manage populations and ecosystems. On coral reefs, the density and diversity of metazoan taxa is greatest in dead coral and rubble, which is suggested to fuel food webs from the bottom-up. Yet, biomass and secondary productivity in rubble is predominantly available in some of the smallest individuals, limiting how accessible this energy is to higher trophic levels. We address the bioavailability of motile coral reef cryptofauna based on small-scale patterns of emigration in rubble. We deployed modified RUbble Biodiversity Samplers (RUBS) and emergence traps in a shallow rubble patch at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef, to detect community-level differences in the directional influx of motile cryptofauna under five habitat accessibility regimes. The mean density (0.13–4.5 ind.cm-3) and biomass (0.14–5.2 mg.cm-3) of cryptofauna were high and varied depending on microhabitat accessibility. Emergent zooplankton represented a distinct community (dominated by the Appendicularia and Calanoida) with the lowest density and biomass, indicating constraints on nocturnal resource availability. Mean cryptofauna density and biomass were greatest when interstitial access within rubble was blocked, driven by the rapid proliferation of small harpacticoid copepods from the rubble surface, leading to trophic simplification. Individuals with high biomass (e.g., decapods, gobies, and echinoderms) were greatest when interstitial access within rubble was unrestricted. Treatments with a closed rubble surface did not differ from those completely open, suggesting that top-down predation does not diminish rubble-derived resources. Our results show that conspecific cues and species’ interactions (e.g., competition and predation) within rubble are most critical in shaping ecological outcomes within the cryptobiome. These findings have implications for prey accessibility through trophic and community size structuring in rubble, which may become increasingly relevant as benthic reef complexity shifts in the Anthropocene. We address the bioavailability of coral reef cryptofauna in rubble based on small-scale patterns of emigration. We adapted the accessibility of Rubble Biodiversity Samplers (RUBS), models used to standardise biodiversity sampling in rubble (Wolfe and Mumby 2020), to explore the local movement patterns of rubble-dwelling fauna, with inference to predation processes within and beyond the cryptobenthos. Five treatments were developed to detect community-level differences in the directional influx of motile cryptofauna under various habitat accessibility regimes. Four of these treatments were developed by modifying accessibility into RUBS (https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:4176644/files) to understand limitations on the directional influx and movement of cryptofauna within coral rubble patches using four treatments; (1) open (completely accessible), (2) interstitial access (top closed), (3) surficial access (sides and bottom closed), and (4) raised (above rubble substratum). The fifth treatment involved a series of emergence plankton traps, designed to target demersal cryptofauna that vertically migrate from within the rubble benthos at night, given emergent zooplankton biomass and diversity are greatest at night. Fieldwork was conducted over several weeks (11th September to 5th October 2021) in a shallow (~3–5 m depth) reef slope site on the southern margin of Heron Island (-23˚26.845’ S, 151˚54.732’ E), Great Barrier Reef, Australia (Fig. 1). All collections were conducted under the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority permit G20/44613.1.

For this manuscript, there were three types of methods performed to make our main conclusions: genetic diversity and structure analyses, downloading and mapping butternut fossil pollen during the last 20,000 years, and modeling and hindcasting butternut's (Juglans cinerea) distribution 20,000 years ago to present. Genetic analyses and species distribution modeling were performed in Emily Schumacher’s Github repository (https://github.com/ekschumacher/butternut) and pollen analyses and mapping were performed in Alissa Brown’s repository (https://github.com/alissab/juglans). Here is information detailing the Genetic data Data collection description: To perform genetic diversity and structure analyses on butternut, we used genetic data from the publication Hoban et al. (2010) and genetic data from newer sampling efforts on butternut from 2011 - 2015. Individuals were collected by Jeanne Romero-Severson, Sean Hoban, and Martin Williams over the course of ~ten years with a major sampling effort closer to 2009 followed up by another round of sampling 2012 - 2015. The initial 1,004 butternut individuals that were collected were genotyped by Sean Hoban and then the subsequent 757 individuals were genotyped in the Romero-Severson lab at Notre Dame non-consecutively. Genotyping was performed according to Hoban et al. (2008); DNA was extracted from fresh cut twigs using DNeasy Plant Mini kits (QIAGEN). PCR was performed by using 1.5 mM MgCl2, 1x PCR buffer [50 mm KCl, 10 mm Tris-HCl (pH 9.0), 0.1% Triton-X-100 (Fisher BioTech)], 0.2 mm dNTPs, 4 pm each forward and reverse primer, 4% Bovine Serum Albumin, 0.25 U TaKaRa Ex Taq Polymerase (Panvera), and 20 ng DNA template (10 μL total volume). The PCR temperature profile was as follows: 2 min at 94 °C; 30 cycles of 94 °C for 30 s, Ta for 30 s, and 72 °C for 30 s; 45 min at 60 °C; and 10 min at 72 °C on a PTC-225 Peltier Thermal Cycler (MJ Research). The process of assessing loci and rebinning for differences in years is detailed in the Schumacher et al. (2022) manuscript. Data files butternut_44pop.gen: Genepop file of original 1,761 butternut individuals, sampling described above, separated into original 44 sampling populations. butternut_24pop_nomd.gen: Genepop file of 1,635 butternut individuals, following rebinning based on researcher binning, reduced based on geographic isolation and missing data, organized into 24 populations. Used to generate all genetic diversity results. butternut_24pop_relate_red.gen: Genepop file of 993 butternut individuals, reduced for 25% relatedness, used to generate all clustering analyses. butternut_26pop_nomd.gen: Genepop file of 1,662 butternut individuals, reduced based on geographic isolation and missing data, including Quebec individuals, organized into 26 populations. Used to generate genetic diversity results with Quebec individuals. butternut_26pop_relate_red.gen: Genepop file of 1,015 butternut individuals, including Quebec individuals, reduced for 25% relatedness, used to generate clustering analyses with Quebec individuals. Fossil Pollen Data collection description: Pollen records for butternut were downloaded from Neotoma Paleoecology Database in 500-year time increments and visualized in 1,000 year-time increments 20,000 years ago to present. Data files butternut_pollen_data.csv: CSV of pollen records used for analyses and mapping. Includes original coordinates for each record (“og_long”, “og_lat”), the count of Juglans cinerea pollen at each site (“Juglans_cinerea_count”), and the age of the record (“Age”). To create the final maps, the coordinates were projected into Albers for each record (“Proj_Long,” “Proj_Lat”). Species Distribution Modeling and Hindcast Modeling Data collection description: We wanted to identify butternut's ecological preferences using boosted regression trees (BRT) and then hindcast distribution models into the past to identify migration pathways and locations of glacial refugia. Species distribution modeling was performed using boosted regression trees according to Elith et al. (2008). To run BRT, we needed to: 1. Reduce occurrence records to account for spatial autocorrelation, 2. Generate pseudo-absence points to identify the habitat where butternut is not found, 3. Obtain and extract the 19 bioclimatic variables at all points, 4. Select ecological variables least correlated with each other and most correlated with butternut presence. The BRT model that predicted butternut's ecological niche was then used to hypothesize butternut's suitable habitat and range shifts in the past. We downloaded occurrence records according to Beckman et al. (2019) as described here: https://github.com/MortonArb-ForestEcology/IMLS_CollectionsValue. The habitat suitability map generated from the BRT were projected into the past 20,000 years using Paleoclim variables (Brown et al., 2018). Data files butternut_BRT_var.csv: A CSV of the butternut presence and pseudoabsence points and extracted Bioclim variables (Fick & Hijman, 2017) used to run BRT in the final manuscript. Longitude and latitude coordinates are projected into Albers Equal Area Conic project, same with all of the ecological variables. Presence points are indicated with a 1 in the “PA” column and pseudo-absence points are indicated with a “0.” The variables most correlated with presence and least correlated with each other in this analysis were precipitation of the wettest month (“PwetM”), mean diurnal range (“MDR”), mean temperature of the driest quarter (“MTDQ”), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (“MTwetQ”), and seasonal precipitation (“precip_season”). References Brown, J. L., Hill, D. J., Dolan, A. M., Carnaval, A. C., & Haywood, A. M. (2018). PaleoClim, high spatial resolution paleoclimate surfaces for global land areas. Scientific Data, 5, 1-9 Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R., & Hastie, T. (2008). A working guide to boosted regression trees. Journal of Animal Ecology, 77, 802-813. Fick, S. E., & Hijmans, R. J. (2017). WorldClim 2: new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 4302-4315. Hoban, S., Anderson, R., McCleary, T., Schlarbaum, S., and Romero-Severson, J. (2008). Thirteen nuclear microsatellite loci for butternut (Juglans cinerea L.). Molecular Ecology Resources, 8, 643-646. Hoban, S. M., Borkowski, D. S., Brosi, S. L., McCleary, T. S., Thompson, L. M., McLachlan, J. S., ... Romero-Severson, J. (2010). Range‐wide distribution of genetic diversity in the North American tree Juglans cinerea: A product of range shifts, not ecological marginality or recent population decline. Molecular Ecology, 19, 4876-4891. Aim: Range shifts are a key process that determine species distributions and genetic patterns. A previous investigation reported that Juglans cinerea (butternut) has lower genetic diversity at higher latitudes, hypothesized to be the result of range shifts following the last glacial period. However, genetic patterns can also be impacted by modern ecogeographic conditions. Therefore, we re-investigate genetic patterns of butternut with additional northern population sampling, hindcasted species distribution models, and fossil pollen records to clarify the impact of glaciation on butternut. Location: Eastern North America Taxon: Juglans cinerea (L., Juglandaceae) (butternut) Methods: Using 11 microsatellites, we examined range-wide spatial patterns of genetic diversity metrics (allelic richness, heterozygosity, FST) for previously studied butternut individuals and an additional 757 samples. We constructed hindcast species distribution models and mapped fossil pollen records to evaluate habitat suitability and evidence of species’ presence throughout space and time. Results: Contrary to previous work on butternut, we found that genetic diversity increased with distance to range edge, and previous latitudinal clines in diversity were likely due to a few outlier populations. Populations in New Brunswick, Canada were genetically distinct from other populations. At the Last Glacial Maximum, pollen records demonstrate butternut likely persisted near the glacial margin, and hindcast species distribution models identified suitable habitat in the southern United States and near Nova Scotia. Main conclusions: Genetic patterns in butternut may be shaped by both glaciation and modern environmental conditions. Pollen records and hindcast species distribution models combined with genetic distinctiveness in New Brunswick suggest that butternut may have persisted in cryptic northern refugia. We suggest that thorough sampling across a species range and evaluating multiple lines of evidence are essential to understanding past species movements. Data was cleaned and processed in R - genetic data cleaning and analyses and species distribution modeling methods were performed in Emily Schumacher's butternut repository and fossil pollen data cleaning and modeling was performed in Alissa Brown's juglans repository. Steps for performing data cleanining, analyses, and generating figures for the manuscript are described within each repo.

As part of global efforts to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy sources there has been a rapid increase in the installation of renewable energy devices. The installation and operation of these devices can result in conflicts with wildlife. In the marine environment, mammals may avoid wind farms that are under construction or operating. Such avoidance may lead to more time spent travelling or displacement from key habitats. A paucity of data on at-sea movements of marine mammals around wind farms limits our understanding of the nature of their potential impacts. Here, we present the results of a telemetry study on harbour seals Phoca vitulina in The Wash, south-east England, an area where wind farms are being constructed using impact pile driving. We investigated whether seals avoid wind farms during operation, construction in its entirety, or during piling activity. The study was carried out using historical telemetry data collected prior to any wind farm development and telemetry data collected in 2012 during the construction of one wind farm and the operation of another. Within an operational wind farm, there was a close-to-significant increase in seal usage compared to prior to wind farm development. However, the wind farm was at the edge of a large area of increased usage, so the presence of the wind farm was unlikely to be the cause. There was no significant displacement during construction as a whole. However, during piling, seal usage (abundance) was significantly reduced up to 25 km from the piling activity; within 25 km of the centre of the wind farm, there was a 19 to 83% (95% confidence intervals) decrease in usage compared to during breaks in piling, equating to a mean estimated displacement of 440 individuals. This amounts to significant displacement starting from predicted received levels of between 166 and 178 dB re 1 μPa(p-p). Displacement was limited to piling activity; within 2 h of cessation of pile driving, seals were distributed as per the non-piling scenario. Synthesis and applications. Our spatial and temporal quantification of avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is critical to reduce uncertainty and increase robustness in environmental impact assessments of future developments. Specifically, the results will allow policymakers to produce industry guidance on the likelihood of displacement of seals in response to pile driving; the relationship between sound levels and avoidance rates; and the duration of any avoidance, thus allowing far more accurate environmental assessments to be carried out during the consenting process. Further, our results can be used to inform mitigation strategies in terms of both the sound levels likely to cause displacement and what temporal patterns of piling would minimize the magnitude of the energetic impacts of displacement. Wash_diagWash_diag.xlsx is the historic location data (pre windfarm construction) for the 19 individuals used in the analysis described in Russell et al.