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Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories
<b>Abstract</b><br/><p>Most research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou (<em>Rangifer tarandus caribou</em>) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project boreal caribou population growth rates to change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.</p>
<b>Methods</b><br /><p>Please see the README document ("README.md") and the accompanying published article: Stewart, Micheletti et al. 2023. Climatepinformed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for nothern boreal caribou. Ecological Applications.</p>
Dryad version number: 10 Version status: submitted Dryad curation status: Published Sharing link: https://datadryad.org/stash/share/Fhf5hbiXyNakd03lWbpGut2UqlOQHBtyWXvci9QOtsg Storage size: 1157668 Visibility: public
- University of British Columbia Canada
- Wilfrid Laurier University Canada
- Wilfrid Laurier University Canada
Woodland boreal caribou, Ecology, Rangifer, SpaDES, habitat, Ecological forecasting, species at risk, climate change, vegetation, FOS: Biological sciences, Climate change, Other, anthropogenic change, fire
Woodland boreal caribou, Ecology, Rangifer, SpaDES, habitat, Ecological forecasting, species at risk, climate change, vegetation, FOS: Biological sciences, Climate change, Other, anthropogenic change, fire
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).0 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
