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China is confronted with an unprecedented water crisis regarding its quantity and quality. In this study, we quantified the dynamics of China?s embodied water use and chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge from 2010 to 2015. The analysis was conducted with the latest available water use data across sectors in primary, secondary and tertiary industries and input?output models. The results showed that (1) China?s water crisis was alleviated under urbanisation. Urban consumption occupied the largest percentages (over 30%) of embodied water use and COD discharge, but embodied water intensities in urban consumption were far lower than those in rural consumption. (2) The ?new normal? phase witnessed the optimisation of China?s water use structures. Embodied water use in light-manufacturing and tertiary sectors increased while those in heavy-manufacturing sectors (except chemicals and transport equipment) dropped. (3) Transformation of China?s international market brought positive effects on its domestic water use. China?s water use (116?80 billion tonnes (Bts))(9) and COD discharge (3.95?2.22 million tonnes (Mts)) embodied in export tremendously decreased while its total export values (11?25 trillion CNY) soared. Furthermore, embodied water use and COD discharge in relatively low-end sectors, such as textile, started to transfer from international to domestic markets when a part of China?s production activities had been relocated to other developing countries.

Abstract An assessment of the human impact on the global water cycle requires estimating the volume of water withdrawn for irrigated agriculture. A key parameter in this calculation is the irrigation efficiency, which corrects for the fraction of water lost between irrigation withdrawals and the crop due to management, distribution or conveyance losses. Here we show that the irrigation efficiency used in global irrigation models is flawed for it overlooks key ambiguities in partial efficiencies, irrigation technologies, the definition of ‘large-scale’ irrigated areas or managerial factors. Once accounted for, these uncertainties can make irrigation withdrawal estimates fluctuate by more than one order of magnitude at the country level. Such variability is larger and leads to more extreme values than that caused by the uncertainties related with climate change. Our results highlight the need to embrace deep uncertainties in irrigation efficiency to prevent the design of shortsighted policies at the river basin-water-agricultural interface.

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models' ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (6) ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318

AbstractAimThe aim was to decipher Europe‐wide spatio‐temporal patterns of forest growth dynamics and their associations with carbon isotope fractionation processes inferred from tree rings as modulated by climate warming.LocationEurope and North Africa (30‒70° N, 10° W‒35° E).Time period1901‒2003.Major taxa studiedTemperate and Euro‐Siberian trees.MethodsWe characterize changes in the relationship between tree growth and carbon isotope fractionation over the 20th century using a European network consisting of 20 site chronologies. Using indexed tree‐ring widths (TRWi), we assess shifts in the temporal coherence of radial growth across sites (synchrony) for five forest ecosystems (Atlantic, boreal, cold continental, Mediterranean and temperate). We also examine whether TRWi shows variable coupling with leaf‐level gas exchange, inferred from indexed carbon isotope discrimination of tree‐ring cellulose (Δ13Ci).ResultsWe find spatial autocorrelation for TRWi and Δ13Ci extending over a maximum of 1,000 km among forest stands. However, growth synchrony is not uniform across Europe, but increases along a latitudinal gradient concurrent with decreasing temperature and evapotranspiration. Latitudinal relationships between TRWi and Δ13Ci (changing from negative to positive southwards) point to drought impairing carbon uptake via stomatal regulation for water saving occurring at forests below 60° N in continental Europe. An increase in forest growth synchrony over the 20th century together with increasingly positive relationships between TRWi and Δ13Ci indicate intensifying impacts of drought on tree performance. These effects are noticeable in drought‐prone biomes (Mediterranean, temperate and cold continental).Main conclusionsAt the turn of this century, convergence in growth synchrony across European forest ecosystems is coupled with coordinated warming‐induced effects of drought on leaf physiology and tree growth spreading northwards. Such a tendency towards exacerbated moisture‐sensitive growth and physiology could override positive effects of enhanced leaf intercellular CO2 concentrations, possibly resulting in Europe‐wide declines of forest carbon gain in the coming decades.

China's household energy demands' life-cycle water uses from 2002 to 2015 are quantified with an Input-Output analysis disaggregating rural and urban impacts. 9.73 and 1.60 km3 of water was withdrawn and consumed respectively in the life cycle of Chinese household energy demands in 2015, which was dominated by power and heat uses. An average urbanite's household energy uses, including coal, gas, petroleum products, power and heat, require about four times of life-cycle water uses than its rural counterpart. Among all upstream sectors, while agricultural sectors accounted for the largest shares for all energy uses, oil and gas extraction made significant contributions to petroleum products and gas consumption. A Structural Decomposition Analysis is conducted to disentangle the impacts of four driving factors, i.e. population, demand, economic structure and technology. Population change reduced energy consumption's life-cycle water use for rural households but increased that for urban households. Each economic sector's water intensity decreases, which represent technology advancement, played the dominant role curbing household energy consumption's life-cycle water uses. While power and heat dominates the household energy use profile, urbanization is accompanied by household consumption shifting from coal to gas and petroleum products. In order to reduce household energy consumption's impacts and reliance on water resources, it is imperative to reduce energy production's water use by adopting water-saving technologies, such as air cooling, as well as to reduce upstream sectors' water intensities, such as by promoting drip irrigation.

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, and its atmospheric concentration has nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. The growth rate of atmospheric methane is determined by the balance between surface emissions and photochemical destruction by the hydroxyl radical, the major atmospheric oxidant. Remarkably, this growth rate has decreased markedly since the early 1990s, and the level of methane has remained relatively constant since 1999, leading to a downward revision of its projected influence on global temperatures. Large fluctuations in the growth rate of atmospheric methane are also observed from one year to the next, but their causes remain uncertain. Here we quantify the processes that controlled variations in methane emissions between 1984 and 2003 using an inversion model of atmospheric transport and chemistry. Our results indicate that wetland emissions dominated the inter-annual variability of methane sources, whereas fire emissions played a smaller role, except during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. These top-down estimates of changes in wetland and fire emissions are in good agreement with independent estimates based on remote sensing information and biogeochemical models. On longer timescales, our results show that the decrease in atmospheric methane growth during the 1990s was caused by a decline in anthropogenic emissions. Since 1999, however, they indicate that anthropogenic emissions of methane have risen again. The effect of this increase on the growth rate of atmospheric methane has been masked by a coincident decrease in wetland emissions, but atmospheric methane levels may increase in the near future if wetland emissions return to their mean 1990s levels.